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Cummins is a power solutions company operating through several segments: engines, distribution, components, power systems, and Accelera (its zero-emissions brand). Among its offerings are diesel and natural gas engines, power generators, and electrified power systems. Founded in 1919 and formerly known as Cummins Engine Co., the company serves customers such as original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and dealers.

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Cummins (CMI): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Cummins

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Greetings. Welcome to Cummins Inc. Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.

Please note this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Nick Arence, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our teleconference today to discuss Cummins' results for the 2025. Participating with me today are Jennifer Rumsey, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer. We will be available to answer questions at the end of the teleconference. Before we start, please note that some of the information that you will hear or be given today will consist of forward looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934.

Such statements express our forecasts, expectations, hopes, beliefs and intentions on strategies regarding the future. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties. More information regarding such risks and uncertainties is available in the forward looking disclosure statement in the slide deck and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed annual report on Form 10 ks and any subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10 Q. During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures, and we will refer you to our website for a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP financial measures. Our press release with a copy of the financial statements and a copy of today's webcast presentation are available on our website within the Investor Relations section at commons.com.

With that out of the way, I will turn you over to our Chair and CEO, Jennifer Rumsey to kick us off.

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. We delivered impressive results in the second quarter led by record performance in our Distribution and Power Systems segment that more than offset continued softening in the North America truck market. The record financial performance from these two segments along with strong operational execution across our entire company led to EBITDA increasing three ten basis points year over year despite North America heavy and medium duty truck volumes declining 30% from a year ago. Incredibly proud of our employees' continued focus on meeting customer commitments and delivering our priorities.

And I'm confident that our efforts will allow us to continue to operate from a position of strength. Now I will move on to some highlights from our second quarter. Then I will discuss our sales and end market trends by region. Finally, will provide an update on how uncertainties in our current environment may impact our end markets for the remainder of the year. Mark will then take you through more details of our second quarter financial performance.

In the second quarter, we continued to make progress in the execution of our Destination Zero strategy with the introduction of a new product in our Power Systems segment. Expanding on the success of our acclaimed Sentum Series generator sets, we launched the new 17 liter engine platform generator that produces up to one megawatt of power. The S17 Sentum genset was developed to produce a larger power output within a compact footprint to meet the growing power demands in urban environments, where compact design and high performance is critical. The new genset is designed to support a wide range of critical market segments such as commercial properties, health care facilities and water treatment plants. In July, we also announced a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend from $1.82 to $2 per share, the sixteenth consecutive year in which we have increased the dividend.

During the quarter, we returned $251,000,000 to shareholders in the form of dividends, consistent with our long term plan to return approximately 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. Now I'll comment on the overall company performance for the 2025 and cover some of our key markets. Revenues for the second quarter were $8,600,000,000 a decrease of 2% compared to 2024. EBITDA was $1,600,000,000 or 18.4 percent compared to $1,300,000,000 or 15.3% a year ago. And gross margin improved 150 basis points from a year ago.

This improvement in profitability was driven by the benefits of higher power generation demand, operational efficiencies, pricing and lower compensation expenses, which more than offset lower North America truck volumes and the unfavorable net impact from tariffs. We see a marked contrast in demand between longer cycle sectors such as power generation, which also continues to benefit from some well established secular themes and declining confidence in some of our more economically sensitive shorter cycle markets in North America, particularly truck pickup and consumer related markets. We anticipate this contrast will become more pronounced in the second half of the year. Our second quarter revenues in North America decreased 6% compared to 2024. Industry production of heavy duty trucks in the second quarter was 57,000 units, down 27% from '20 24 levels, while our heavy duty unit sales were 22,000, down 29% from a year ago.

Industry production of medium duty trucks was 28,000 units in the 2025, a decrease of 36%, while our unit sales were 25,000, down 35% from 2024. We shipped 34,000 engines to Stellantis for use in the Ram pickups in the 2025, down 18% from 2024 levels. Revenues for North America power generation equipment increased by 25%, driven primarily by continued strong demand in data centers and mission critical applications. Our international revenues increased by 5% in the 2025 compared to a year ago. Second quarter revenues in China including joint ventures were $1,800,000,000 an increase of 9% as accelerating data center demand and higher domestic truck demand driven by government stimulus more than offset lower export demand.

Industry demand for medium and heavy duty trucks in China was 304,000 units, an increase of 13% from last year. Our sales in units including joint ventures were 43,000, an increase of 31%. The increase in China market size was primarily due to higher than expected domestic demand driven by NS4 scrapping incentives. Industry demand for excavators in China in the second quarter was 59,000 units, an increase of 11% from twenty twenty four levels. Our units sold were 11,000, an increase of 13%.

An increase in the China market size is primarily due to domestic cyclical replacement demand, rural development and farmland renovation demand. Sales of power generation equipment in China increased 32% in the second quarter due to accelerating data center demand. Second quarter revenues in India, including joint ventures, were $699,000,000 a decrease of 1% from the second quarter a year ago. Industry truck production increased 1% from 2024. Power generation revenues increased 31% in the second quarter, driven by increases in G drive and data center demand.

To summarize, we achieved impressive results in the second quarter with record financial performance in our Power Systems and Distribution segments. As we look ahead to the third quarter, we expect North America heavy and medium duty truck volumes to decline 25% to 30% from second quarter levels as we have seen truck orders recently reach multiyear lows and OEMs have initiated reduced work weeks through the next three months. The duration of this reduced demand in North America truck markets will largely depend on the trajectory of the broader economy, the evolution of trade and tariff policies and the pace at which regulatory clarity emerges. Despite the challenges in the North America truck markets, we have the benefit of operating a diversified global business and expect continued strength in our power generations market in addition to stability in our aftermarket and industrial businesses. Tariffs are undoubtedly having an impact on Cummins, our suppliers, customers and end users creating uncertainty over freight activity linked to the movement of goods and increasing costs.

We did experience increasing tariff costs in the second quarter. However, as anticipated, we did not see the full impact of the current policies as supply chains work through existing inventory. We've been active in our efforts to mitigate tariff exposures and negotiate agreements with customers that position us to enter fourth quarter near full recovery. Additionally, although we primarily produce engines and gensets in the markets where we sell them, we are further mitigating our efforts by continuing to evaluate and implement dual sourcing where possible and economically viable for our supply manufacturing. As we navigate these uncertainties, we will continue to maintain discipline by managing our costs while continuing to invest to meet our critical priorities so that we are well positioned as markets recover.

In summary, we had a strong second quarter performance that demonstrates the earnings potential of Cummins at a time when demand in North America and China truck market sits at weak levels. While we expect demand in North America truck markets to decline significantly in the third quarter from second quarter levels, we remain well positioned with an experienced leadership team that has demonstrated capability in managing through periods of uncertainty. And we will maintain our focus on our customers, employees and shareholders. I'm confident that we will further raise our performance when markets recover and look forward to reinstating guidance when some of the uncertainty has subsided. Now let me turn it over to Mark.

Thank you, Jen, good morning, everyone. The highlight of the second quarter is our strong profitability delivered in the face of global uncertainty. Our revenues were $8,600,000,000 down 2% from a year ago. Sales in North America decreased 6%, while international revenues increased 5%. EBITDA was $1,600,000,000 or 18.4% of sales for the quarter compared to $1,300,000,000 or 15.3% of sales a year ago.

The higher EBITDA percentage was driven by higher power generation demand, strong operational efficiencies, positive pricing and lower compensation expenses, which were partially offset by lower North America truck volumes and the unfavorable impact of tariffs on all of our operating segments. Now I'll go into more detail by line item. Gross margin for the quarter was $2,300,000,000 or 26.4% of sales compared to $2,200,000,000 or 24.9% last year. The improved margins were driven by favorable pricing and operational improvements, especially in Power Systems and Distribution. Selling, administrative and research expenses were $1,100,000,000 or 13.1% of sales compared to $1,200,000,000 or 13.7% of sales.

Lower compensation costs, primarily variable compensation benefited both gross margin and operating expenses and the financial performance of all operating segments year over year. Joint venture income of $118,000,000 increased $15,000,000 from the previous year, primarily driven by higher China volumes within our engine business as demand improved compared to a weak 2024. Other income increased to $49,000,000 positive compared to negative $3,000,000 from the prior year, driven by the positive impacts of foreign currency valuation and gains on investments related to company owned life insurance. Interest expense was $87,000,000 a decrease of $22,000,000 from prior year, primarily driven by lower weighted average interest rates, partially offset by higher debt balances. The all in effective tax rate in the first quarter was 24.2%, including $3,000,000 or $02 per diluted share of favorable discrete tax items.

All in net earnings for the quarter were eight ninety million dollars or $6.43 per diluted share compared to $726,000,000 or $5.26 per diluted share a year ago. Operating cash flow was an inflow of $785,000,000 compared to an outflow of $851,000,000 a year ago with the difference mainly driven by the $1,900,000,000 required by the previously disclosed settlement agreements with the regulatory agencies, which flowed out in Q2 last year. Excluding the settlement, operating cash flow was an inflow of $1,100,000,000 a year ago. I will now comment on segment performance and provide some comments for the remainder of 2025. For the Engine segment, first quarter revenues were $2,900,000,000 a decrease of 8% from a year ago.

EBITDA was 13.8%, a decrease from 14.1% a year ago as weaker North American truck volumes were partially offset by pricing related to the launch of updated products in light duty markets, operational efficiencies and higher joint venture income in China. Components revenue was $2,700,000,000 a decrease of 9% from a year ago. EBITDA was 14.7% compared to 13.6% of sales a year ago as lower product coverage costs, operational efficiencies and pricing more than offset lower on highway demand in North America. In the Distribution segment, revenues increased 7% from a year ago to $3,000,000,000 EBITDA was a record $445,000,000 and improved as a percent of sales to 14.6 compared to 11.1% of sales a year ago, driven by higher power generation, strong parts demand and overall improvements in gross margin. In the Power Systems segment, revenues were $1,900,000,000 an increase of 19% from a year ago.

EBITDA dollars were also a record at $433,000,000 rising from 18.9% to 22.8% of sales driven by strong volume, particularly in data center applications and other mission critical applications, favorable pricing and a continued focus on productivity and other operational improvements. Acelora revenues decreased 5% to $105,000,000 as increased e mobility sales mainly to bus customers partially offset lower electrolyzer installations. Our EBITDA loss was $100,000,000 compared to an EBITDA loss of $117,000,000 a year ago, reflecting a lower cost base resulting from the actions we took in the 2024. In summary, we delivered strong profitability for the second quarter as a result of improved operational execution across our business that more than offset weaker demand in North America truck markets. For the third quarter, we expect North America truck demand to sharply decline from second quarter levels as recent truck orders are at multi year lows driven by uncertainty due to trade tariffs, product regulation and caution about the prospects for freight.

Since our last earnings call, we've seen a steady stream of updates from our OEM customers extending the number of production down days through the third quarter. We view current order levels as unsustainably low, but immediate catalysts for recovery are not yet clear. We have not yet felt the full impact from tariffs and there is still uncertainty about duration and ongoing levels, which was highlighted again last week with the flurry of new announcements. It remains to be seen what this will impact this will have on business confidence and the demand for capital goods beyond trucks. We've worked hard to mitigate the impact of tariffs and while negative to profitability in the second quarter, we should enter the fourth quarter close to a price cost neutral position with regard to tariffs.

As you saw in our second quarter results, Cummins is in a strong position to navigate through this uncertainty with our industry leading portfolio of products and our global network we're well placed to support our customers. While we expect the coming months to be much more challenging, primarily for the Engine and Components segment, we are staying focused on our strategic priorities, whilst also taking actions in the short term to reduce costs and lower inventory. We look forward to reinstating our outlook when the economic picture becomes clearer and we are confident that as markets recover, we will continue to raise our performance as we have clearly done in the first half of this year. Thanks for joining us today. Now let me turn it back over to Nick.

Thank you, Mark. Out of consideration to others on the call, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question and a related follow-up. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue. Operator, we are ready for our first question.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first questions come from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Great. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking the question. Seems like you have a little bit of feast and a little bit of famine here. So I'll focus on the feast, if that's all right.

Power Systems, let's talk about Power Systems. Big margin there, obviously, much higher than I think we expected. I know you've been doing a lot of work on this over the past few years, Jen. But at the end of the day, I'm curious if you think that is sort of the right margin level that we should be thinking about as we start modeling forward. Is that sustainable?

Or was there anything in there that we should be aware of?

Yes. Thanks Steve for the question. And really pleased with the performance of the Power Systems business. As you noted, we started a couple of years ago on a journey to really improve operational performance and really coupled with the strong and growing demand in the power generation market has really benefited that business. So we've made many of the steps and really better leveraging the capacity that we have and trying to improve throughput and operational performance.

And frankly, team has outperformed in terms of the effort for that and that has led to the really strong margin improvement that you've seen over the last couple of years. We're continuing to focus on areas where we can improve operational efficiency and performance. We're continuing our investment and doubling the capacity in that business which we expect to be fully online by the beginning of next year. So I think the pace of improvement has probably stabilized, but we will certainly continue to work on operational efficiencies and deliver value to our customers and being able to price for that and drive mentality across all of our businesses.

And Steve just to say there's nothing unique in there other than demand strong for both generators and parts, but there's no one time is in there or anything like that.

Right. Understood. And then I assume you must have pretty good backlog in that segment. Maybe you can comment on that. But do you have pricing flexibility in that backlog if you need it? Can you reprice this stuff if necessary before delivery?

Yes. We have backlog out about two years in that business. And so continue to see strong demand, strong backlog. And we've been working with customers where we have backlog on the tariff recovery made some progress there. So typically, we're not repricing beyond that and existing orders that we've taken.

We price aftermarket as the market moves and as I said working on tariff recovery across all of our businesses.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on another strong quarter here. I wanted to ask a little bit of a bigger picture sticking to the kind of power systems dynamic. Back at your Investor Day, last year you quantified that total data center I think business was $1,400,000,000 I think, in sales and that you were kind of 23% of the, I think, dollars 6,000,000,000 global market for data centers. I think at the time, you also kind of noted that that would be a $2,000,000,000 sales for you in 2026 and maybe a $9,000,000,000 market.

I know it's difficult to quantify and it's crazy 2026 starting next year. But I guess could you just comment on that? How are you seeing your business growth and demand and market share ultimately evolve toward that kind of $2,000,000,000 top line and or kind of where are we in terms of the size of your business within data centers?

Yes. Thanks for the question. So we are continuing to be very well positioned. We think the combination of our products and we've launched the Sentum series. We've continued to add some products, but the larger ones of those are quite popular in data centers coupled with our distribution business provides Cummins an advantage.

So we're strong player in a growing backup power provider to data centers. We feel like we continue to maintain that position and take advantage of new products capacity investment. Expect this year to be pretty stable in the second half with typical seasonality. But as I said, we'll have some additional capacity coming online as we go into 2026.

That's helpful. And I guess is it fair to assume then that $2,000,000,000 is still kind of the way to think about 2026?

Yes. There's been no change in enthusiasm for demand.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Jamie Cook with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning. I guess what struck me about the quarter is your margin performance even with North America truck going through a correction. So I guess the two areas that stuck out to me besides Power Systems was your distribution margins, which I'm assuming is getting the benefit of Power. Are margins moving structurally higher there just because of the benefit that you get through from the Power Systems business? And then also on the component side, you were able to improve your margins despite sales declines.

I think you noted lower product coverage. Is there any way you could quantify that? Just trying to think about the implications for margins in the back half. And then I guess my second question, Jen, just relates to sort of what I mean the cycle like in North America. Obviously, we're seeing a big correction in 2025 lack of pre buy.

Based on what you're hearing from your customers, how are you thinking about North America in twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven? Thanks.

Good morning, Jamie. I'll start on the margin question. So on distribution, yes, the benefits of Power, the benefits of strong parts business and then we've got positive pricing in the distribution business as well. So all of those have combined to make for very positive results in distribution overall. Yes, in component, it's not reasonable to expect on significant continuing declines in truck volumes that we can maintain margins in the short run.

We expect obviously margins to improve over the long run-in engines and components. But you're right, we called out the product coverage numbers, because that was a tougher quarter a year ago and a much cleaner quarter just within the components for the company overall. There really wasn't much difference in the product coverage numbers. But for in the component segment that was probably worth something like $0.05 point. That was not a one time it was more the absence of a problem from a year ago than something that's special that happened in this quarter.

But just to be clear, given the rates of decline here in the third quarter from second quarter in engines and components, we should expect that there's going to be a negative impact on the profitability of those two segments.

Okay. Thank you. And then Jen just on the cycle?

Yes. On the cycle, Jamie, it's there's a number of typical factors and then some atypical factors that we see influencing the truck cycle. So spot rates continue to be low, economic demand isn't really growing for customers, interest rates are still higher and while the age of the fleet on average has gone up some, we still are seeing that kind of cyclical normal cyclical down in the truck market which then had it on top of it this uncertainty around tariff policy, the impact that's going to have on price of trucks and regulatory uncertainty, which means customers are really just holding, waiting to see what happens, get more stability and clarity on orders. And in Q2, build rates held up okay. We saw some softening, but as Mark noted, we're seeing a lot more down days and our customers and us restructuring in our plants in anticipation of a much weaker.

Q3. How long will it last? It's a little bit hard to predict. The optimistic, Jen, would say we get more tariff clarity and stability in Q3 and more certainty on regulation. We still believe today that we'll have 27 NOx regulation and if we do then that will likely drive demand back up.

But it's uncertain right now. We're working closely with the EPAs to try to push for clarity and help them understand levers that they may have to reduce the total cost impact of that in particular longer emissions warranty, but it's really hard for me to predict. So the pessimist says it drags out longer and that's part of why we're not giving guidance. Difficult to predict.

And the pessimist sat next to us, would just point out that more years than not Q4 is not particularly strong within Q3. So we're hoping for that. That would definitely help all industry participants, but we need to see a significant change in the momentum. The momentum for orders to us, for engine systems is down, obviously clearly down.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Please proceed with your questions.

Rob, could you please check if you're self muted?

I beg your pardon. Sorry for that. You guys just touched on the engine margins. And Mark, I take I understand your comments on where things have to go given volumes. But this quarter was pretty good and last quarter was great.

And I wondered if you might comment on price that might influence that or anything else given a shallow margin decline on lower revenues and engines. And Jen just touched on EPA 27. I wonder if you have any guess as to when we have at least clarity on what the resolution will be? Thank you.

Yes. So a couple of factors on the engine margin. We called out in prior quarters because it's been a running theme. As we've launched new models in the light duty segment, we have raised prices. Product quality has been very stable and positive.

And then China, don't want to get people overexcited on China, but stepped up a little bit from weaker levels. Now the engine business benefits a lot from the joint venture earnings in China, which are a little bit higher. So all those factors. And then when we say strong parts that's flowing through the engine business and power systems generally. So all those were factors, but the pricing primarily on new engines was around light duty.

Just add, we have had a the focus on operational efficiency coming through a couple of years, had a lot of supply disruption and high demand. We've had a focus on really just improving the fundamentals of how our business operates and how our plants operate. And then we did do some targeted restructuring last year to optimize how our business operates and took advantage of the softening that we started to see last year to do that. So you're seeing some benefit of that across the company as well.

Okay. Thank you, Jennifer. Thank you, Mark.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Tim Thein with Raymond James. Please proceed with your questions.

Thank you and good morning. The first question was on the PowerGen business guess more domestically this kind of speed to power theme is gaining a lot of momentum and traction in terms of operators that want to get up get power access quickly. And just given the long lead times for industrial gas turbines, it seems like you're starting to see and hear a little bit more of operators that are looking to leverage RECIPs as a way to kind of gain off grid primary power. And I'm just curious if that's something that Cummins has seen or isn't expecting to see maybe just to comment on that.

I mean, think the trend certainly is need for more power, challenges of getting that power. Today, we are still primarily positioned in backup power. Certainly strategically, we're looking at where we want to position ourselves for the future as that demand for power continues to exist. But it's not really meaningfully impacting our business today or in the near future.

Okay. All right. Understood. And then just on distribution, I can remember years ago when double digits was talked about as kind of the aspirational target there. I'm just curious, is the power gen business obviously has been growing for some time.

Are there more just as the power demands increase and maybe the data centers are consuming more and more power, is that bringing along more services and more kind of ancillary type revenues with those installations such that that business carries higher margins? Or would that all be kind of reflected in Power Systems margins? I'm just curious as the parts part of distribution as percentage has continued to decline, which I would think would be dilutive to the margin. So maybe just a comment on that would be helpful. Thank you.

I think, yes, you're right. Any of those services and other things would show in distribution not in power systems. But I think what lies beneath the surface a little bit Tim is just a more broad based improvement in our international operations. I do also remember vividly those double digit margin targets when we set them. There's been dramatic improvements in area like Africa where we had high growth aspirations that quite frankly had some risk management issues and execution issues early on.

Those are long behind us. So I think we've really more broadly improved the operational effectiveness and profitability focus outside North America in addition to improving North America. So I think it's a more broad based phenomenon that's really driven the results.

But typically in the power generation market, if we're doing backup power then there's minimal aftermarket parts demand, but the distribution business can do additional content on the installation and benefit from that work with the customer.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi. Thank you. I know you don't want to give guidance, but I am curious just directly to ask the EBITDA margin for engine in third quarter, fourth quarter, how are you thinking about that relative to we've been above 13% now for a while, haven't been below 12%, 11% since I think late twenty twenty one. And you mentioned the JV income maybe a little bit better as an offset. It's obviously more impactful the lower the consolidated revenues are.

Just because people are going to look at sort of at least a thought process of a bottoming truck in the next few quarters when it comes to margins and then sort of go from there on how to think about '26 earnings. Can you give us any quantification of how to think about the EBITDA margins in engines in the third quarter or back half of twenty twenty four twenty twenty five? Thank you.

Yes. We spent a lot of time staring at that as you can imagine. And, what I would say is I don't see a lot of momentum. China has improved off a very rough bottom, but we're going to come under pressure here in the second half. What I'd say is whilst the margins are going to go down, clearly, there's nothing structural about that.

We're just the volumes are going to go down significantly. I think if we looked on a full year basis, we might see there's no reason to see why the decrementals are very different on a full year basis from prior cycles. But clearly for engines and components, they're going to come under significant pressure. And just to give a bit more technical, not to be negative, just to give the fact. We already know what how many engines we produce in heavy and medium duty truck in July.

We can see the order build rate for August. It's going to be very depressed, as Jen said, down 25% to 30%. That's not surprising given how low the orders are. But I think as we look forward though, we're confident that we margins will rebound quickly as the volume comes through. The other complexity that we're dealing with is a lack of clarity on emissions regulations means we've got to retain flexibility on the engineering side.

And we said at our last Analyst Day, over time, we expect engineering to come down as a percent of sales in engines and components. We're not able to execute that side of it yet because of this lingering uncertainty. So clear reduction, but nothing structural, no significant changes to market pricing, which always could have an impact structurally. So we're going to go down and then we're going to rebound in those two businesses. And hopefully that's quicker rather than later history says we don't have that many quarters of down.

We're a few quarters in already, but we're waiting for more momentum on the order side. But yes, it's going be tough, definitely a tough second half.

The incremental margins, again, I know you're avoiding quantifying, but just so we can frame this a little bit. Is the idea of the decremental margins and EBITDA, for engines for the third quarter, it's at 35% -ish, 40% kind of range? We're just trying to get some sense of

They're going to be yes, they're going to be pretty heavy. They're going to I'm not trying to hide from it. They're going to be pretty heavy. These are some of the largest declines we've seen. If you look at the orders in the past three or four months, they're amongst the weakest three or four month periods we've had in the last twenty years.

That's going to show up in our numbers. But it's going to be it's a cyclical business and it will rebound. And just to reinforce, it's going to be tough, but then when the volumes come back, which they inevitably will, quite when we can't say, we'd expect performance to rebound as well. So hopefully, July is the trough. We started with a spreadsheet.

Imagine a spreadsheet in front of you. I'm still old and I use spreadsheets where we've got customer down days by brand, by location. And when we sat here three months ago, it was modest for the third quarter and now it's kind of a sea of red. But we'll come through this period, but the margins will come under pressure. We're not going to hide from that, but there's nothing structural changing.

That's what I want investors to leave. If it was something structural, we would tell you, but it's going to be volume based and it's going to be tough. The good news is we've got two businesses that are performing at record levels where demand is high. That's what we look for, and stronger than they've done in prior cycles. And we expect broadly demand for those businesses to remain stable for the remainder of the year.

So I hope that helps a bit. I know it's tough. The reason why we haven't given guidance is, as you can see, we withdrew guidance. It was nothing to do with our performance in the second quarter, but the number of variables out there essentially remain the same from three months ago. Yes, we've got more visibility into Q3 and it's much worse than we would have imagined at the start of the year.

It's worse than we would have imagined three months ago, but we hope this is the bottoming period. And then we're moving on and hopefully, industry is set up for a better 2026. And we are well positioned with strong position in the markets, good relationships with excellent customers. So we look forward to that. But yes, this is going to be one of those tougher periods.

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Kyle Mengus with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.

Thank you. I was hoping Mark, if you could just touch on your thoughts on capital allocation quickly and how you're thinking about leverage at current levels, appetite for share buybacks. And then I'm thinking you guys should be beneficiaries from the big beautiful bill and favorable cash taxes and just have you tried to quantify that impact and thoughts on where you might deploy that excess cash to?

Yes. So, we've had a pretty long track record of returning capital to shareholders. We set kind of this long term benchmark of at least 50% and we've been living up to that even during a period where we made a major acquisition. You saw with a healthy increase in the dividend here. We've been working hard to improve our leverage metrics and I feel good about where they are now.

So really the pace of capital allocation is really based on economy, prospects for the business. When we do capital allocation, we're also looking at making sure we're doing that in the most effective way that we can. So yes, incrementally, we should be looking for more of that going forwards as a base case. The yes, if the taxes are the beautiful part, then the tariffs are definitely not, right? And the challenge is that the tariff costs have created great uncertainty.

I'll just say a little bit about tariffs since I haven't been asked about that yet. That the cost of the tariffs to Cummins, and I'll quantify the tax benefits in a moment, multiples of the tax benefit that pull forward of tax benefits that are allowed under accelerated depreciation. And whilst we've done a pretty good job in mitigating tariffs, it's placing a significant burden on the industries and all the participants that we play on. So all that weighs into all this calculus of liquidity, capital allocation. To answer you specifically on the tax bill, I mean, we've got some choices to make as and what elections we want to make through the various dynamics of tax legislation.

You could reasonably expect 125,000,000 to $250,000,000 of cash benefit. But we haven't we'll finalize our choices in the third quarter. In taxes, inherently some strange trade offs where cash benefits today can be negative for long term tax rates. And then we equate a relatively complex global business. So we've got to think all of that through.

So I would say on the margin, could that be like 5% to 8% of our operating cash flow for the year? Yes. Does it fundamentally change any of our business plans for this year? No. We've invested a lot in North America to meet the upcoming emissions regulations.

And quite frankly, we're looking for some clarity to be able to deploy that capital effectively with our new products going forward. So we're not rushing to spend more capital here. We're hoping for clarity on utilizing the capital investment. So sorry for the long little bit of whining there, but just to reinforce the complexity that we're facing.

That's helpful. And then just it sounds like you're fully expecting to completely offset tariff impacts and pass through to the customer. You commented a little bit on how the industry is handling it. But maybe you could just expand on just what you're seeing and hearing from the customers and markets and how they're handling that pass through of the tariff costs? And then is the plan still to roll out the EPA 27 compliant engine in 2026 and that'll be additional pricing on that.

So just I guess would love to hear your thoughts how you're thinking about that and the industry's ability to handle even more pricing? Thank you.

So tariffs were negative to profitability for Cummins in the second quarter. So we did not fully recover. We're approximately 22,000,000 negative net in the quarter. We've been working hard to mitigate the costs through managing when we're buying materials, where we're buying it from, resourcing where we can. We've done a lot.

Cummins (CMI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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