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F500-2023-049-ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips, one of the world’s largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies, skyrocketed 28 spots up the rankings in 2023, surfing a rise in crude oil prices driven largely by the war in Ukraine. 
<ul> 
 	<li>ConocoPhillips revenue rose nearly 70%, and its profits increased 131% in 2022 compared with 2021, when energy companies were still recovering from the dip in oil and gas demand resulting from the pandemic’s effect on travel.</li> 
 	<li>Throughout 2022 ConocoPhillips doubled down on liquefied natural gas (LNG), increasing its ownership of LNG operations in Australia, Germany, Qatar, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.</li> 
 	<li>In March 2023 President Biden formally allowed ConocoPhillips to drill for oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, the nation’s largest untouched expanse of wilderness, miring the energy giant in a larger controversy over government-sponsored oil and gas drilling projects.</li> 
</ul>

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F500-2022-077-ConocoPhillips

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F500-2021-156-ConocoPhillips

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G500-2020-348-ConocoPhillips

The oil and gas company's 29-spot dip in rankings doesn’t tell the full story, given an enduring period of volatility in the crude market. While sales for the year fell 5%, to $36.7 billion, profits shot up 15% year-over-year, as ConocoPhillips tightened its structure and grew daily production volume by 5%. The Houston-based company generated more than $3 billion from the sales of its U.K. and northern Australia businesses, bringing total cash and short-term investments for the year up to $8.4 billion. The refocusing of its portfolio, as well as disciplined spending, allowed ConocoPhillips to reward shareholders with $1.5 billion in dividends and $3.5 billion in share buybacks.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 66th running of the list.

F500-2020-093-ConocoPhilips

The oil and gas company's seven-spot dip in rankings doesn’t tell the full story, given an enduring period of volatility in the crude market. While sales for the year fell 5%, to $36.7 billion, profits shot up 15% year-over-year, as ConocoPhillips tightened its structure and grew daily production volume by 5%. The Houston-based company generated more than $3 billion from the sales of its U.K. and northern Australia businesses, bringing total cash and short-term investments for the year up to $8.4 billion. The refocusing of its portfolio, as well as disciplined spending, allowed ConocoPhillips to reward shareholders with $1.5 billion in dividends and $3.5 billion in share buybacks.

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Global business is back. After limping through a worldwide financial crisis and economic slowdown, the 500 largest companies ranked by revenues shattered all sorts of performance records in 2013: They racked up combined revenues of $31.1 trillion, up 2.5% from 2012, and profits soared 27% to nearly $2 trillion. China’s 95 companies (up from 89 last year) posted $5.8 trillion in revenues. The U.S. has four fewer companies on the list than last year but remains (for now) the country leader, with 128 corporations on the list—including No. 1 Wal-Mart Stores—reporting $8.6 trillion in revenues. 

Wal-Mart stayed on top as its sales crept closer to half-a-trillion dollars. Apple moved into the top five. And UnitedHealth Group continued its steady climb. 

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The corporate history of ConocoPhillips traces back to 1875, when early precursors of today’s energy giant transported kerosene by rail to pioneers in the Mountain West. The firm’s current name comes from a 2002 merger between Phillips Petroleum and Conoco. Headquartered in Houston, ConocoPhillips extracts, processes, and transports a variety of fuels, including petroleum, natural gas, and bitumen. The company has operations in more than a dozen countries, with the bulk of its production in the United States, particularly Alaska. Other sites of production include Canada, Norway, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

Q2 2026

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Q4 2025

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Q2 2025

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Q4 2024

ConocoPhillips (COP): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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ConocoPhillips

conocophillips

Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. During the question-and-answer session, if you have a question, please press star one one on your touchtone phone. I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, Liz, and welcome everyone to our fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO, Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Strategy and Commercial, Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE, and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions. Ryan and Andy will kick off the call today with opening remarks, after which the team will be available for your questions. For the Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller. A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the investor relations website. Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations.

Actual, actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.

Thanks, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. 2025 was another very strong year for ConocoPhillips, marked by consistent financial and operational execution and a number of important strategic accomplishments for our company. First, we outperformed all our major guidance drivers from the beginning of the year, CapEx, operating costs, and production, demonstrating the strength of our team's quarter-to-quarter execution. On a pro forma basis, we grew production by 2.5% in 2025, while driving significant reductions to both our capital and costs. On return of capital, we met our objective to return 45% of our CFO to shareholders, consistent with our long-term track record, while again increasing our base dividend at a top-quartile S&P 500 growth rate. We did so while further strengthening our investment-grade balance sheet, certainly a differentiated accomplishment.

Our cash balances are higher today than a year ago, and our net debt is lower, putting us in a very strong financial position to start the year. We successfully integrated Marathon Oil, outperforming our acquisition case on the most important metrics. We added more high quality, low cost of supply resource, doubled our synergy capture, realized a further $1 billion of one-time benefits, and completely eliminated the Marathon capital program while still delivering pro forma production growth. And as part of our drive for continuous improvement, we launched and have already made great progress on our incremental $1 billion cost reduction and margin enhancement initiative. We progressed our commercial LNG strategy, growing our offtake portfolio to approximately 10 million tons per annum.

Finally, we improved our Lower 48 drilling and completion efficiencies and advanced our differentiated major projects, which we expect to drive peer-leading free cash flow growth through the end of the decade. 2025 was a great year for the company. Yet while these are significant achievements, we're not stopping there. We will build on this success. Turning to 2026, our primary focus is on delivering $1 billion combined reduction across our capital spending and operating costs while growing our production on an underlying basis. On shareholder returns, we once again expect to return about 45% of our CFO to shareholders while continuing to grow our base dividend at a top-quartile S&P 500 rate. Top-quartile dividend growth is sustainable, as we expect our free cash flow breakeven to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of this decade.

Looking beyond 2026, I believe ConocoPhillips continues to offer a compelling value proposition that is differentiated both within our sector and relative to the broader S&P 500. As I've said before, I believe we have the highest quality asset base in our peer space, a distinguishing competitive advantage, especially in the context of a US shale industry that continues to mature. We are resource rich in a world that is looking increasingly resource scarce. We have the deepest, most capital-efficient Lower 48 inventory in the sector, and outside the Lower 48, we have an abundance of high quality, low cost of supply legacy assets. We are uniquely investing in our diverse major projects to transform the free cash flow generation profile of our company.

As a reminder, the four major projects we have underway, combined with our cost reduction and margin enhancement initiative, are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 that will double our 2025 free cash flow generation... and that free cash flow inflection is now underway. We anticipate realizing approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow each year from 2026 through 2028, with another $4 billion from Willow coming online in 2029, and that's a growth profile that's unmatched in our industry. Now, with that, let me turn over the call to Andy to cover the fourth quarter performance and 2026 guidance in more detail.

Thanks, Ryan. Starting with our fourth quarter performance, we reported another quarter of strong execution across the portfolio. We produced 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with the midpoint of our production guidance. We generated $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.3 billion of CFO. Capital expenditures were $3 billion, which brought our full-year capital spend to $12.6 billion. We returned $2.1 billion to our shareholders during the fourth quarter, including just over $1 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends, bringing the full-year return of capital to $9 billion or 45% of our CFO, consistent with our guidance and our long-term track record.

We closed over $3 billion of asset sales during 2025, demonstrating strong progress against our recently upsized $5 billion divestiture target, with $1.6 billion of proceeds received in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we paid down $900 million of debt, and cash balances were up $1 billion, resulting in net debt reductions of nearly $2 billion, highlighting our commitment to both returning cash to shareholders and our investment-grade balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments finished at $7.4 billion, along with $1.1 billion in long-term liquid investments. On reserves, 2025 was another solid year. Our organic reserve replacement ratio was just under 100%, while our trailing three years was 106%. Turning now to our guidance for 2026.

As Ryan said, we continue to expect a significant reduction in both our capital spend and our operating costs, combining to drive a year-on-year improvement of about $1 billion. 2026 capital spend guidance of about $12 billion is consistent with the preliminary outlook provided last quarter, down about $600 million year-on-year due to significant capital efficiency gains in the Lower 48, and a decline in our major project spending. 2026 operating cost guidance of about $10.2 billion is also consistent with the preliminary outlook, down about $400 million compared to 2025. The improvement in 2026 is driven by a combination of our cost reduction program and a full year of Marathon Oil synergies.

2026 production guidance is 2.23 million-2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, providing modest growth for the year. First quarter production is expected to be in the range of 2.3 million-2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including the estimated impacts of weather-related downtime from Winter Storm Fern. In the Lower 48, once again, we expect to deliver more production for less capital as we continue to benefit from the highest quality asset base in the sector. We are a clear leader in inventory depth, with over two decades of low-cost supply inventory across the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken.

We're also the clear leader when it comes to bottom-line results, capital efficiency, the amount of oil we recover for every dollar of capital we invest. We have the best rock in the best part of the best plays, and our team continues to execute really well. In 2025, we improved our drilling and completion efficiencies by more than 15%. We expect our capital efficiency improvements to continue in 2026, again, driven by strong well productivity, ongoing D&C excellence, and further increases in our longer lateral developments. Now turning to Alaska and International, a few important themes stand out for 2026. First, we continue to progress our advantage major projects.

Consistent with the comprehensive update we provided last quarter, our LNG projects are more than 80% complete, with NFS expected to start up in the second half of this year, while Willow is nearing 50% complete and on track for first oil in early 2029. Second, we remain focused on infrastructure-led exploration and are shifting our focus this year to Alaska, where we have four wells fully permitted and are looking to unlock additional resources near to our infrastructure hubs, building on our decades of disciplined exploration and appraisal spend in Alaska. And third, we'll continue to leverage our diverse, low-cost supply legacy assets for ongoing capital-efficient development, including at Surmont, where we delivered our most recent pad ahead of schedule and on budget, with another pad expected online early next year.

To wrap up, 2025 was a very strong year for ConocoPhillips, and we're looking to build on this success in 2026, starting with a $1 billion improvement in our CapEx and costs, as the multi-year free cash flow growth profile we've discussed is now well underway. We'll continue to find ways to enhance our differentiated investment thesis, unmatched portfolio quality, including leading Lower 48 inventory debth.

... attractive long cycle investments, strong returns on and off capital, and a sector-leading free cash flow growth profile through the end of the decade. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it over to the operator to start the Q&A.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have a question, please press star one, one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star one, one again. If you're using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star one, one on your touchtone phone. Our first question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Yeah, good, good morning, Ryan, team, thank you for taking the time. Ryan, you talked about depth of inventory, strong reserve replacement, and you've got some great projects coming on here in the next couple of years. Just your perspective, as the industry is now set to accelerate consolidation, potentially, of whether Conoco is really more of an organic story, on the go forward, given those characteristics, or do you see a role that Conoco is playing in consolidation?

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, Neil. Yeah, appreciate the question. Look, you know, we, we've done our heavy lifting on the M&A side over the last 4-5 years, and I think I've never seen the portfolio in a better shape and, really no strategic gaps that we can identify. We're, we're globally diverse. We like our combination of, a leading resource position in the, in the Lower 48, combined with what we've got going on around the world, and the LNG projects that we're leading into the Willow development, and then, what Andy talked about in some of our other projects going on around the world. So our pivot has been to the organic side of the portfolio. I can see the rationale for some of the M&A activity in, in terms of capturing the synergy, but, we've been there, done that.

We've got that behind us, and our focus is on the organic opportunity set that we have inside the portfolio, which we think is significant. As I said in my opening remarks, I think where we've gotten ourselves to is pretty resource rich and what we believe is becoming a more constrained world on the resource side. But we like where we're at, we like the portfolio, and we're pretty focused on the organic side of the business.

Our next question comes from Lloyd Byrne from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Hey, Ryan, and team, thank you for taking the calls. You've been pretty clear in the past, Ryan, about what it would take to go back into Venezuela, and I was just wondering if there's any update there, and if I may, do the recent events impact the Citgo sale at all?

Oh, the Venezuelan question right off the top, huh, Lloyd? Yeah. Look, yeah, I get it in the news, and look, our, you know, we're pretty focused on what we've talked about in the past, and that's, you know, focused on the pathway to get some recovery on what's owed us in Venezuela. And that's our first priority right now, is making sure... They owe us a significant amount of money. We've been after that, so we know where all the assets are, and that's the basis of our focus as well. You know, we're trying to be helpful with the current administration and provide them with our sense of what's happening on the ground. A lot has to happen, you know, obviously, security needs to improve, fiscals.

You need a constructive relationship with local governments and the local people that actually want, you know, U.S. companies there. And then you need durability on the policy side. You need durability both in Venezuela and clearly here on the U.S. side. But we're helping the administration kind of think through the short, medium, and long term, but our focus remains on trying to get the recovery that is owed us from the two judgments that we have in place. With respect to Citgo, we see no change at this point, encouraged by the administration's comments regarding wanting to get the asset in American hands or U.S. hands.

That's constructive, and obviously, if there's still an appeal process to work through in that judgment from the courts, and then an OFAC license is required ultimately to satisfy that, but we would stand to collect some of our judgment through that process, but we see no reason to believe it isn't going forward as it's been described to us.

Our next question comes from Steve Richardson from Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Maybe we can step back a little bit from the Venezuela question, Ryan. I was wondering if, you know, you extended the concession in Libya this quarter, and, you know, this seems to be part of a broader trend where there's a lot of opportunities arising internationally for your company and others. And so I was wondering if you could just talk more broadly about how you evaluate those options versus your current portfolio, and is it just a question of kind of risk-adjusted cost of supply or, you know, there's obviously other opportunity costs there, but I was wondering if you could just talk about that more broadly and how, how you're evaluating those opportunities.

Yeah. Thanks, Steve. So I'd draw a little bit of a distinction. I mean, we've been trying to improve fiscals in Libya for nearly a decade. So we finally got to that point with here a couple of weeks ago, with signing the agreement.

... with the Libyan government and our partner there. But it's something—it's an asset inside the portfolio that we're trying to improve every day. And so this just is another organic opportunity inside the portfolio, specific to Libya, and the improvement in the fiscals are just gonna make it more competitive as we think about it. But we've been investing money, you know, in Libya, and this just makes those investments even more profitable and more competitive in the portfolio as we go forward, as a result of what we've done. I think more broadly, what you're getting at, yeah, there are some opportunities, and as the world becomes a little bit more resource-constrained, there's opportunities around. We look at those as well.

We had a new one come into the portfolio through the Marathon acquisition of Equatorial Guinea. And so that's one we're focused on as well, trying to figure out how we can grow that LNG plant on the island and make it a long-term asset for the company. But that's kind of fits into that organic side of the business, just trying to make that asset better over the long term for the company. We're doing similar things in Malaysia. But there are new country entries that are happening, and we see that with new wildcat exploration, maybe around the world from other competitors and in new countries. We look at those and look for opportunities that might benefit the company and be additive to our plans and be consistent within our financial framework. And so it's exactly what you did.

It's a risk-adjusted cost of supply of that opportunity, and would it compete for capital inside the company? And could we slot it in with what we're doing inside the company over the long term, you know, the next 10 and 20 years? So we... The uniqueness about our company is we have that, we have that muscle inside the company. We're already a pretty diverse company. We've got a BD organization that looks around the world, not just in the Lower 48 and the unconventional space, but also conventionally around the world. But it's gotta compete inside the portfolio, just like everything does in the organic side of the business. So we-- I think we're really well positioned to look at that and see what can be additive to the company.

Our next question comes from Betty Jiang from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Hello, good morning. I want to ask about the Alaska exploration program. We just started this year, the first of a multiyear program. Can you speak to the objective of that exploration program? What's the risk? How big is the scale of the resource being targeted? And if successful, are we talking about extending the plateau for Willow, or is it more upside to the ultimate production capacity of that project?

Yeah, great, great question, Betty. Good morning. Thanks for that. Yeah, certainly pleased to report that we're out in front of this winter season here. We got an early start just based on weather and ice road activity. And of course, we have all of the permits required both for both the wells as well as the seismic that we have planned up there this year. And you know, even to that end, we were able to spud the first of those four wells just within the last couple days. So strong progress that we're seeing on those four. But again, to your question around intent and objectives here, you know, we're out there exploring to the west of Willow and actually to the south a bit.

As you've certainly heard from us before, our objective is to continue to find what we might describe, even though it's onshore, as tieback opportunities into both Willow and actually into our WNS Alpine asset as well. So, you know, to your point, this is an opportunity for us to identify continued volumes, continued resource plays, to bring into this existing infrastructure, and Willow being the next, the next hub, if you will. And when we look back on our performance history there in Alaska, we have and continue to project or expect we'll produce well over double the volumes through those existing facilities, through that existing infrastructure, you know, over double what we originally promised when we took FID on those.

And so naturally, then, that's our same objective here for Willow, specifically, is as we explore to the west, we'll be looking for those resource opportunities to just keep that infrastructure full. Obviously, a bit early to, you know, to start making a call on, you know, total resource size, et cetera, but, but naturally, we have some pretty high, high aspirations and some targets that we're pursuing, and, and we'll be going after this for several years here now.

We've got four wells here at Permian this year, but we've got a multiyear plan that we intend to carry out, again, so that we can maximize, as we do globally, the infrastructure that we have and our ability to bring new volumes into that that creates this advantaged cost of supply for us using existing kit.

Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram from J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open.

Yeah. Hi, Ryan and team. Gentlemen, trends in well productivity, increasing recovery rates have become, you know, pretty hot button topics in U.S. shale. I wanted to talk a little bit about ConocoPhillips's Lower 48 business. You know, looking at the data, the investor data in 2025, you guys had a really good year in terms of productivity in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian. And I know it starts with good rock, but I was wondering if you could talk about some of the levers you may be pulling from a technology standpoint that may be contributing

... to the attractive trends in well productivity that we're observing today?

All right, Rune, good morning. Yes, we surely did have a strong productivity year in 2025 across that entire portfolio, as you mentioned. It was definitely consistent with our type curve expectations and consistent with the high quality of inventory, as you mentioned. One of the things we continued to do is we benchmark ourselves in each of our basins, and I'm pleased to say, on an oil productivity per foot, we're among the best in every basin we operate. Now, specifically, I want to call out a couple areas that you mentioned. In the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, we saw impressive year-on-year improvements.

In the Delaware, our oil productivity per foot in 2025 is up about 8% year-on-year, and that's even with a notable increase in our average lateral length of 9% year-on-year. Now, a couple components to dive in on the Delaware side. Again, we know the depth and quality of our acreage position out in the Delaware, but the teams are continuously optimizing our development strategies and adjusting spacing and stacking. And then, of course, you get, depending on where you're drilling in North Delaware or Southern Delaware, you have a little bit of mix driving that, just due to the vast, deep, broad portfolio. Now, pivoting to the Eagle Ford, our 2025 oil productivity per foot was up another 7%, and that's off a very strong program in 2024.

And again, we're a clear leader in the Eagle Ford, and we have the lion's share of remaining Tier One inventory, and have had strong well results of any operator. Now in the Eagle Ford, you know, we brought in the Marathon assets. We've integrated that together. Teams continue to optimize completion designs using diverters to improve recovery, and we're seeing those in the results that you had mentioned. If you look ahead to 2026, we expect consistent strong performance across all of our basins, like we've demonstrated over the past several years. And this is a key driver in our ability to deliver low single digit growth in the Lower 48, alongside a reduction of more than 5% in capital compared to 2025.

Our next question comes from Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Good morning. I think it's good afternoon, everybody, I should say. I apologize. I'm in Europe, so I don't know what the heck time it is. Guys, I wanted to go back to Ryan's comment about the breakeven trajectory, getting to the low 30s by 2030. I'm trying to understand a little bit about what the moving parts are. Where is it today, and what is the assumption in where CapEx is from the $12 billion this year in 2030 that gets you to that number, please? Thank you.

Morning, Doug, or afternoon, Doug, or evening, Doug, depending on where you are in Europe.

There might be a rugby game involved, Andy. Thanks.

Okay, yeah, I can step through that one. So, you know, where we are right now, sort of our pre-dividend, free cash flow breakeven right now is in the mid-$40s, and you'd add about $10 to that with the dividend. So that's kind of your starting point. And then as you say, as a reminder, we have our pre-productive capital spend. You know, it's down from where it was in 2025. We still have the pre-productive CapEx, you know, between now and Willow coming online, and that works off, you know, that if you do the math on what we've said on that, that's about $6, basically, just on that simple pre-productive capital.

And then, you know, as we've talked about, sort of in our prepared remarks, you've kind of got the free cash flow. You know, it's already starting to improve today, and it's going to continue to improve, and we're effectively gonna almost double our pre-productive CapEx cash flow, sorry, by the time that, you know, Willow comes online. And when you put all of that together, you know, that's basically how we take our free cash flow, you know, all the way down into the low thirties by the time the Willow is coming online, and then, you know, you add the dividend back on top of that.

So, you know, we're gonna be down right in the low 30s when we have Willow, and then, you know, adding another, you know, $8-$10 for the dividend, as we remember, we're buying back shares as well, so that sort of reduces the dividend burden over time as well. So that's, you know, that's kind of the trajectory we're on, and we're pretty excited about it. And, you know, I think we think it's part of the story we have here in terms of that free cash flow trajectory we're on, and we think it is second to none. And it's gonna drive sort of a breakeven that comes down, I think, faster than anybody else can come close to matching.

Our next question comes from Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Hey, thanks for taking my question. Ryan, I wanted to come back to one of the international growth assets that you listed in response to a prior question, and that's Equatorial Guinea. I know you've been evaluating potential backfill projects for the LNG facility there, and I believe just over the last few days, there was an agreement reached between Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon for the unitization of the Yoyo-Yolanda fields. I know it wasn't a Conoco-operated asset, but it's one of the potential tieback resources into that LNG plant. So kind of a broader question, since you listed it as a growth potential area, just talk about how you're seeing the opportunity set there and where we stand on projects to backfill and keep that LNG plant full.

Yeah, I can provide some overview comments, and then maybe have Kirk come in behind. I think we were encouraged by the Cameroon conversations and then here recently, Chevron's conversations at Aseng. So you know, we're working hard to try to make the asset that we acquired from Marathon something more than a 5-year asset. How do we make it a 10, 15, 20-year asset? So we've been busy with some HOAs with the Equatorial Guinea, and doing exactly that. We're encouraged by the opportunities that we see out there. We're encouraged with the cross-border cooperation because that just leads to more opportunity to bring more volumes across the island.

Maybe Kirk can describe some of the more specifics that we're looking at today.

Yeah, certainly, Ryan and Devin. As Ryan's been describing, we've been in discussions, certainly having taken on this asset through the Marathon acquisition. As we've taken it into the company, we've been actively in contact with a number of other operators in and around our LNG facility and upstream assets, thinking about how do we leverage that infrastructure, specifically the liquefaction facility that's using our technology there on the island. Certainly discussions have progressed very well. Really pleased with that, specifically with Chevron. They've made some notable progress in a few of their projects. A couple of both new fields as well as you know, continued development of some existing fields that create some upside for that.

And then, naturally, we are, as Ryan said, we're in some HOA discussions, you know, confidential discussions with the government and a few others around continued infill opportunities, especially gas, in and around Malabo and our operation there. So again, you know, this is a continuation here of the theme of what we've been able to do so well, whether it's internationally, in Alaska, which is continue to find resources that exist to create this advantaged cost of supply to use existing infrastructure. So, expect us to continue to make some progress in that way there in EG.

Our next question comes from Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Hey, thanks. Maybe could you talk about how you think about Lower 48 activity levels and commodity price? As you highlight in your presentation, you clearly have a tremendous amount of high-quality drilling inventory. You've moderated your pace of growth in the Lower 48, of late, given, you know, kind of current global crude supply balances and a weaker crude price. But as you look over the next 1-2 years, like, what would you need to see to step up activity levels, and grow a little faster in the Lower 48? And maybe with that, could you elaborate on what you've said a couple times is a pretty constructive, maybe crude oil view, in the medium to longer term?

Yeah, thanks, Ryan. Yeah, we have our own sort of macro view on supply and demand, and I'd say, you know, consistent with a lot of what people were saying, we saw some softness coming into the year. So we set our plans and our budgets in 2026 based on that. Obviously, we've seen a little bit of tailwinds with the current geopolitical things that are going on around the world, but generally thought, you know, 2026 would be a little bit more tougher year on the commodity price, so we set our plans accordingly. And Nick's team, as he's described, has been doing a great job capturing the efficiencies, and we've been able to grow that business without adding, you know, more capital to it. And that's kind of our starting place.

I would say our scope is kind of set for 2026 with what we're trying to execute. We don't like to whipsaw these programs up or down, and we'll use the balance sheet in the downside case if we need to. We're comfortable with where we're at in 2026. If prices were even to increase, would just give us more flexibility to in the company. We are constructive going forward over the next number of years. As we think about later, later down the road in this decade, we think we're gonna have LNG and Willow coming on at the right time when the world needs this oil. So we're pretty constructive as we go forward.

Over time, we'll see what our view of the macro is, we'll see what we think about the costs, and if we want to start ramping up in the Lower 48, we can do that if there's a call on more unconventional crude. But today, I think we're pretty comfortable with our plans. There's a lot of volatility in the market, but we're built for this. We're built to handle it with the balance sheet that we have and the programs that I know the teams are executing. They're trying to get as much as they can for every precious capital dollar that we're spending. So we're trying to balance our returns of our capital back to our shareholder with the returns we're getting on the capital that we're putting back into the company.

So this year, we should see some modest production growth and executing the plans to start delivering the free cash flow inflection that we see over the course of this decade, starting this year with $1 billion and next couple of years with $1 billion, and then another $4 billion coming with Willow. And we think that's hugely differential and relative to our competitors in this space.

Our next question comes from Nitin Kumar from Mizuho. Your line is now open.

Great. Hey, guys, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Ryan, I'm sorry, I'm gonna take you back a little bit to the direction of Venezuela, but it's not really about Venezuela. The expectation is, the Venezuelan heavy crude might back up some of the Canadian production. What's your view of WCS spreads, given that you're seeing some of the other heavier crude from other parts of the world hitting the Gulf Coast?

...Hi there, this is Andy. I can jump in and take that one. Yeah, I think, you know, the short answer is sort of, you know, in the short and medium term, we're not really expecting to see that much of an impact. You know, as most people know, that the, if you start with sort of, you know, the PADD 2 refiners, you know, they're structurally reliant on the Canadian heavy and have minimum alternative options to displace those barrels. And as you say, the Gulf Coast refiners, you know, can process the heavy barrels, and we're starting to see some of those refiners express interest in purchasing some of those Venezuelan barrels. But, you know, our view is the incremental Venezuelan barrels will likely get absorbed.

You know, the markets will rebalance the global flows. And, you know, we kind of, you know, will you see a, you know, a thing from month to month where, you know, there's maybe crude being backed out or being moved in different directions? Possibly. But, you know, take a step back and look at the bigger picture, you know. The way we're thinking about it is that the, you know, annual global demand is growing at, you know, basically 1 million barrels a day. And, you know, we're gonna need incremental sources of supply to help meet that demand growth. So, you know, you know, our modeling isn't really sort of showing that the, you know, Venezuelan crude coming in is gonna have a particularly material impact on Canadian heavy.

Our next question comes from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Yeah, thanks, thanks, all. You know, my question is, you know, on your balance sheet, obviously you've got a very strong cash position and investments. You know, I think there is some investor kind of concern over there, at least in the short term, where, you know, your, your shareholder return strategy, at least in, you know, at that 45% rate, does dip into it. Could you just, you know, give us your context on, you know, how you think about your, your cash balance? How much is reserved for, you know, utilizing it, this as you ramp to that free cash flow inflection point?

Yeah, I can take that one, Scott. You know, I think, you know, in the prepared remarks, I stepped through sort of just how strong our cash balances are starting this year and the fact that we actually reduced our net debt by $2 billion. So we're starting with a balance sheet that is in a really, really, really solid position. You know, I think, you know, we look at it across a range of prices, and I think we've been pretty clear that 45% of our CFO basically works across a range of prices in terms of our distributions, and that that's kind of what you could expect.

There's a reason we have a strong balance sheet, and that's because, you know, if there were a period where sort of, you know, a quarter here and a quarter there, you're needing to, you know, drop into the balance sheet to sort of help fund that, you know, that's what we would do. That's what it's there for. So I think, you know, given where we're starting with cash, I don't really see sort of any real concerns basically around sort of, you know, headwinds to, you know, being able to fund distributions or maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Our next question comes from Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Hi, thanks for taking the question. This question is about the progression of the free cash flow contribution in 2027 and 2028, before Willow, and, you know, in the context of NFE coming on in the visible horizon here. Could we ask you to decompose that progression a little bit and maybe at least frame where the range of LNG contribution, both on the cash flow side and on the spending roll-off, are coming in? And then, you know, the... I guess the market context is that European gas inventories are pretty low, and you have some, you know, European regas exposure that looks like it'll be full, you know, over the next season. So, if we could get some color on that, it would be great.

Okay, kind of touching a few different topics there. We'll try and I'll try and sort of try and cover them. You know, the first part of it is we've been very clear that sort of basically, we're seeing $1 billion per year, 2026, 2027, 2028, of free cash flow improvement. And I think you're starting to allude to this, that you know, 2026 basically is essentially being driven by our OpEx and our CapEx guidance that we've given driving that. But as we get into 2027 and 2028, you know, a significant part of that is being driven by the LNG, where we have you know, we have NFE coming on, Port Arthur coming on, and NFS coming on.

So, you know, we're seeing that basically drive the next $2 billion after the, you know, the 1 we have now, then the next two comes from those LNG projects. And remember, it's a combination of the revenues coming on, but the CapEx going away as well. So that, you know, that's $2 billion, you know, a big chunk of that is coming in 2027 and 2028 from the LNG projects. You know, we've but when we've given those sensitivity on the $7 billion of free cash flow inflection, we've put prices out there basically for that. And I think, you know, where we've basically placed the first 5 million tons that we have out of Port Arthur Phase One into Europe and Asia.

So we feel pretty good about that. And, you know, our view, I think, is that, you know, we're feeling pretty confident basically around sort of, you know, LNG prices basically, holding up over the rest of this decade. So it's kind of, that's what's built into our sensitivities. And, you know, we're also in a situation where, you know, between now and 2030, where we're actually much longer Henry Hub natural gas than we are LNGs. If you think about it, in this area, in the Lower 48, we produce two BCF a day of gas, that's about 15 MTPA. And for every dollar we see move on the price on Henry Hub, that's over $400 million of sensitivity to us.

Whereas the first 5 million tons that we have coming out of Port Arthur between now and, you know, the 2030 timeframe, you know, every dollar movement on that is about a $200 million movement that we have. So we're, you know, we're, we're actually much more exposed to, you know, higher gas prices than we are, you know, compressing LNG margins in the, you know, between now and the end of the decade. I think, I think I touched on most of what you were asking there.

Our next question comes from Phillip Jungwirth from BMO Capital Markets.

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. You reached an agreement with Western Gas during the quarter to restructure Delaware gas contracts. The question's more around you have over 200,000 net acres in the core that you picked up from Shell a couple years ago. Maybe it's a little less optimal in terms of operatorship, working interest or acreage configuration. But with the midstream getting more ironed out, does this at all advance the ability to do a larger acreage swap here? And if so, how meaningful could that be for Conoco's capital efficiency in developing this asset going forward?

Yeah, exactly. If I go back to Shell, I mean, one of the key things as you look at in that area, is we continue to core up in strategic trades all the time to increase our lateral length in that area. That drives our capital efficiency as we extend the laterals in there, and we continue to do that on an ongoing basis. As you mentioned, for the Western Midstream, we did directly contract that through West, and that's one of the key drivers that Andy had mentioned, that achieves that $1 billion of cost savings run rate by year-end 2026. But on the strategic trades, we continue to do that on an ongoing basis.

If you look at long lateral inventory in that area you mentioned, if I step back to 2023, about 60% of our Permian future well inventory was two miles or greater. But today, that's at 80% due to the strategic trades and core ups. In fact, if you look at the 2026 program, 90% of those wells are two miles or greater. We continue to do that with our BD and land teams, coring it up, and that drives the capital efficiency. When you look at that core up opportunities, if we go from a one mile to a two-mile lateral, we improve the cost supply by about 25%. But if we go to three or four miles, we add another 10%-15% cost supply reduction.

Our next question comes from James West, from Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Hey, good afternoon, guys. One thing that came up that I noticed in the slide deck this morning that stood out to me was your reserve replacement ratio. It's been very impressive over the last three years, well above your peer group and then the big oils. Curious, you know, what's been driving that and curious how you see that going forward?

Hi, this is Andy. I'll take the question. I actually thank you for the question. So asking about reserves, you know, we think reserves remains an important and very relevant metric. You know, especially the organic reserve replacement. As you know, that's basically essentially what we're replacing with the drill bit. As you said, you know, our 1-year performance is important, but we do also focus on our multi-year track record, especially when you think about some of the longer cycle projects. So just to quickly step through the numbers, you know, our 3-year organic reserve replacement is 106%, and our 5-year organic reserve replacement is 133%.

What, what's particularly pleasing about that is, across that timeframe, we've got strong contributions, you know, across our entire global portfolio, Lower 48, you know, Alaska and International. It's another example, as Ryan was pointing to earlier, the power of our sort of diversified portfolio. 25 was no different. You know, it was another solid year of, you know, organic reserve replacement. So we effectively maintained the reserves, you know, technically 99%. And that—you know, if you then take that and basically would exclude the impacts of, you know, revisions there to the, the lower oil prices, the organic reserve ratio, you know, when you're not taking price revisions into account, we've been 110%. So, you know, again, it was a really good year for us.

And, you know, I think where you were alluding to, we think our track record, we put it up against anybody, you know, in terms of the majors or the E&Ps over the short, the medium and the long timeframe. And, you know, just in terms of how we think about it, we really do think reserves continue to be an important barometer for our industry. And, you know, no matter how you slice it, you know, it continues to be another proof point, just on the quality of our portfolio. You know, and it was a really good year for us again, where we, you know, we had additions, you know, yes, from the Lower 48, but we, you know, we had additions coming from Coyote up in Alaska.

You know, great performance out of our Australian business unit, where we increased some reserves there. And then just some of the commercial negotiations we do, you know, across Asia allowed us to add some reserves there as well. So, you know, important for us reserves to keep a really close eye on it, and I think it's a good litmus test to sort of how well basically we're doing, and we couldn't be happier with it.

And I would add just one thing, James, as well. I mean, people ask us when we talk about our sub-$40 resource—sub, sub-$40 cost supply resource that we have inside the company, and is it real or, you know, how, how real is it? I think this is the proof point, is we're converting those resources into reserves.

... you ought to feel comfortable, and we've been doing this over the long haul, both in our history, and we, given Andy's comments, you know, that's what we expect to happen going forward because of that, the resource that we've got captured inside the company and our focus on the organic investments in the company to turn that resource into reserves.

Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Hey, guys, good afternoon or good morning. Ryan, just curious, you still have a lot of runway in the Lower 48, but I think no matter how we look at it, shale oil is getting mature. And as that happens, how over the next five years, your capital allocation is going to shift or that is going to make any changes, to position the company, post 2030? I mean, we—clearly, that you, you have a very, I think, visible path for the next five years, but post 2030, that, with that major asset is going to be maturing, how are you going to position, given you are a very large company, so to turn a big ship, going to take times? Thank you.

Yeah. Thanks, Paul. Look, you know, we, in our view, inside the Lower 48, just in particular, is over two decades of low-cost supply inventory. So we're gonna be in this business for 20+ years. It's not gonna roll over in 5 years in our portfolio. But I take your point. I think broadly in the industry, we're at these kinds of prices, seeing sort of plateau-ish production in the, in the shale, North American or US, shale, but that is not the case inside our company. So, we will see sort of, major project capital spend, the pre-productive capital that Andy talked about, that will start to roll off through the end of this decade. We continue to-- we'll see growth in our unconventional, you know, investments, as we continue to capture efficiencies and look at that business.

But we've got, you know, multiple decades of growth opportunity there. And then, Kirk talked about the rest of the business. We, we see opportunities in Alaska, we see them in Canada, we see them in—we talked about Equatorial Guinea, the signing of the new agreement in Libya. So I think we're just in a completely different place than a lot of our competitors, and we've got a lot of optionality for investment in the portfolio to continue sort of modest growth, depending on what the commodity price environment ends up being. And, and again, we're, we're pretty constructive long term as we see demand growth continuing to grow. So that's gonna give us the opportunity to continue to invest organically in the portfolio across a broad set of assets that we've already captured to develop that resource potential that we have.

It doesn't stop by the next decade in the Lower 48. It continues for quite a period of time. I think all the data, third-party data supports that. We're just not talking our book here.

Our next question comes from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Your line is now open.

Yes, hello to the whole Conoco team there. If I could, I'd like to go back to Alaska. And can you give us an update on how this season's costs at Willow are tracking versus the updated assumptions you guys gave us last quarter? And perhaps fitting in that or maybe tacking onto that, how the loss of this Rig D26, whether it's gonna affect you either on your development or exploration side?

Yeah. Hi, Charles. Thanks for the question. We've certainly had a number of inbounds, especially on the latter part of your question around the rig incident. So I might start there, and then, of course, I'll address your question on Willow. Yeah, certainly very unfortunate event there with that rig, D26. Of course, naturally top of mind for us were the folks that, the individuals that were around the rig and the few that were piloting that rig. Fortunately, no injuries, and of course, the owner, the operator of that rig are ultimately accountable, and they are leading both the investigation and the response. We're naturally in support of that company and working with them as they coordinate and manage in and around that.

That rig was one of two rigs that we had planned for the exploration program here this year. We roughly assigned two wells for each one of those rigs. And of course, we have multiple rigs up there running, and so we were able to just simply backfill that D26 rig with one of the active rigs that we have operating within our existing units. And so the exploration program continues, and we'll be able to pivot those rigs back after the exploration season into our ongoing development. So, you know, no change to either exploration. And to your point around Willow, we have two rigs premised for the pre-drill on Willow leading up to start up in early 2029, and D26 was one of those rigs.

Now, again, because we have multiple rigs deploying, no impact. And again, pre-drill starts for Willow next year in 2027. So ultimately, what you're hearing from me is, after that unfortunate event, you know, no impact on our exploration and no impact on Willow. On Willow, you know, you heard, certainly earlier in my comments that we were able to get out early due to, you know, an early start to the winter season and some cold weather with ice, that the same goes for Willow. And so that winter construction season for us started early. It's on track and proceeding really quite well. When we think about the work scope that we have planned here for this year. It really revolves around some of the earlier points you've heard from me.

ConocoPhillips (COP) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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