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Arrow Electronics is an electronics distributor at the heart of the global supply chain, providing customers in the automotive, industrial, telecommunications, and computing sectors with the components that go inside their products, from semiconductors and switches to power supplies and capacitors. The company also has an enterprise computing solutions business that offers services and support in areas like cloud computing, cybersecurity, and analytics. Founded in the 1930s as a retail shop peddling used radios and radio parts on lower Manhattan’s “Radio Row,” Arrow has evolved into an electronics distribution giant with sales operations, warehouses, and logistics centers around the world.

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Q4 2024

Arrow Electronics (ARW): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Arrow Electronics

arrow electronics

Good day, and welcome to the Arrow Electronics Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brad Windbigler, Arrow's Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator. I'd like to welcome everyone to the Arrow Electronics fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sean Kairns our Chief Financial Officer, Raj Agarwal our President of Global Components, Rick Marrano and our President of Global Enterprise Computing Solutions, Eric Nowak. During this call, we'll make forward looking statements, including statements about our business outlook, strategies, plans and future financial results, which are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including due to the risk factors and other factors described in this quarter's associated earnings release and our most recent filings with the SEC.

We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward looking statements as a result of new information or future events. As a reminder, some of the figures we will discuss on today's call are non GAAP measures, which are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. We've reconciled these non GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in this quarter's associated earnings release. You can access our earnings release at investor.arrow.com along with a replay of this call. We've also posted a slide presentation to accompany our prepared remarks and encourage you to reference these slides during this webcast.

Following our prepared remarks today, Sean and Raj will be available to take your questions. I'll now hand the call over to our President and CEO, Sean Kairns.

Thank you, Brad, and thank you all for joining us. Today, I'd like to share a few thoughts on 2024 as a whole. Then, I'll comment on our fourth quarter performance, reflect on the markets in which we compete and share our thinking as to how things are shaping up as we look to 2025. I'll then turn things over to Raj for more detail on our financials as well as our outlook for the first quarter. Reflecting on 2024, it was a year that brought Arrow unique market conditions and challenges, but also opportunity.

Given the ongoing correction in the broader semiconductor industry, I think we effectively navigated a challenging year while taking several steps to strengthen and position our global components business with the anticipated improvement and conditions ahead. These include extending our line card and expanding our customer base, continuing our commitment to the offerings and capabilities that differentiate us with suppliers and customers, namely supply chain management, demand creation and engineering services, and realigning our business for global consistency and scale. In our Enterprise Computing Solutions business, we fully aligned our go to market strategy across both regions and are laser focused on the markets and demand trends for which we're best suited, namely the adoption of hybrid cloud and AI related solutions, especially in the mid market. As a result, suppliers and channel partners are taking notice. We exited the year on a healthy trajectory and have growing confidence for the performance of this business in 2025.

Now turning to our results. In the fourth quarter, we executed well relative to our original expectations, generating $7,300,000,000 in total sales and achieving non GAAP earnings per share of $2.97 both surpassing the high end of our guided ranges. Taking a closer look at our global components business. We closed out the year with solid results despite challenging market conditions. On a global basis, despite continued softness across a number of verticals, we saw all three regions perform in line with or better than typical seasonal patterns.

Our overall sales results were better in IP and E relative to our semiconductor business, reflecting the resilience of that segment throughout the cycle. Most notably, we saw sequential improvement in our industrial markets, driven by gains in both Asia and The Americas, and in addition, our value added offerings and capabilities contributed to gross margin stability during the quarter. On a regional basis, results were quite mixed. In Asia, stability in transportation and growth in industrial were offset by softness in consumer, compute and communications segments. In The Americas, our gains in the industrial market were offset by softness throughout the automotive sector.

Aerospace and defense, along with the medical device markets, continue to be more resilient. And finally, EMEA's sequential revenue decline aligned with seasonal norms, potentially an encouraging trend given the region's later passage through the cycle. And despite a challenging macro environment, we're executing well in that region. As for the market more broadly, we believe we're in the later innings of the industry's cyclical correction. The precise timing and pace of a broader market recovery are still difficult to predict, but we do continue to see incremental improvement in the key leading indicators for our business.

Our book to bill ratio is now just shy of parity on a global basis with two of our three operating regions exiting Q4 at or near one:one. Rescheduling and cancellation rates have fully normalized. Our visibility is steady and our backlog is stabilizing. Lastly, industry wide data points suggest ecosystem inventory levels continue to decline, albeit slowly. Our Q1 guidance reflects a broader market still bouncing along the bottom.

But as we look beyond the first quarter to the balance of the full year, we're cautiously optimistic about an improving trajectory. We think the declining inventory levels will eventually support improved visibility and a modest recovery. We expect to see incremental volume related to our supplier and customer base expansion efforts, and we believe our actions to further penetrate the market for IP and E along with growth and value added services will also contribute to our momentum. Nevertheless, as we've suggested in prior quarters, a broader recovery will be predicated upon improving outlooks across our supplier base. Now turning to our global ECS business.

In the fourth quarter, we delivered year over year growth in billings, gross profit and operating income, underscoring our alignment to the higher growth demand trends across enterprise IT along with improving execution in our North American region. Strength in hybrid cloud solutions, infrastructure software including cybersecurity and improving data center activity related to AI adoption drove our results. Our first quarter outlook anticipates similar trends. And as such, we expect to see year over year gross profit dollar growth in the first quarter from both regions and operating margin expansion for the business overall. And as we look to the full year, we're encouraged by several factors, including the benefit of our supplier and customer base expansion efforts in 2024, increasing adoption of our Aerosphere digital platform, a growing backlog of cloud and infrastructure software and the continued expansion of our recurring revenue volumes, all of which indicates our ECS business is poised for a solid year and a growing contribution to ARROW's overall results.

In closing, though the industry downturn in our components business has been more prolonged than anticipated, we're confident in the longer term outlook for the semiconductor industry and our business as a whole. We remain committed to our strategic priorities and continue to take healthy steps to position the business for the growth opportunities that lie ahead. In the meantime, I'd like to thank all of our employees around the world for their dedication to ARO throughout 2024. I'm grateful for their commitment to our suppliers, our customers and especially each other. And with that, I'll hand things over to Raj.

Thanks, Sean. Consolidated sales for the fourth quarter were $7,300,000,000 above our guidance range and down 7% versus prior year. Global components sales were $4,800,000,000 above the midpoint of our guidance and down 3% versus prior quarter. Changes in foreign exchange rates reduced reported revenue by approximately 100 basis points compared to the prior quarter. Enterprise computing solutions sales were $2,500,000,000 above our guidance range and 12% higher versus prior year.

DCS billings grew 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. Moving to other financial metrics for the quarter. Fourth quarter consolidated non GAAP gross margin of 11.7% was down approximately 90 basis points versus prior year, driven primarily by overall mix in Global Components. Sequentially, our consolidated gross margin was higher by 20 basis points due to the seasonality within the ECS business. Global Components gross margin was 11.4 and Enterprise Computing Solutions was 12.4%, both on a non GAAP basis.

Our fourth quarter non GAAP operating expenses grew $12,000,000 sequentially to $580,000,000 reflecting seasonal growth in our Enterprise Computing Systems segment. Expense levels continued to decline year over year with the fourth quarter approximately $45,000,000 lower compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the results of recent initiatives and our continuing focus on expense efficiency. In the fourth quarter, we generated non GAAP operating income of $274,000,000 which was 3.8 of sales with Global Components operating margin at 3.6% and Enterprise Computing Solutions at 6.5%, both on a non GAAP basis. Interest and other expense was $60,000,000 in the fourth quarter, and our non GAAP effective tax rate was 24.9. And finally, non GAAP diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $2.97 which was above our guided range due to favorable revenue levels.

Turning to working capital. Net working capital declined sequentially in the fourth quarter by approximately 170,000,000 ending the quarter at $6,700,000,000 Inventory at the end of the fourth quarter was $4,700,000,000 This represents a $1,100,000,000 reduction from our peak inventory levels five quarters prior. Our cash conversion cycle modestly declined in the fourth quarter to seventy seven days. Our cash flow from operations was $326,000,000 in the fourth quarter and $1,100,000,000 for the full year. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive cash flow generation.

Gross balance sheet debt at the end of the fourth quarter was $3,100,000,000 We repurchased $50,000,000 of shares in the fourth quarter and our remaining repurchase authorization stands at approximately $325,000,000 For the full year, we repurchased $250,000,000 of our stock. In the short term, we are continuing to balance the capital priorities with managing our debt ratios. Now turning to Q1 guidance. We expect sales for the first quarter to be between $5,980,000,000 and $6,580,000,000 We expect global component sales to be between 4,350,000,000 and $4,750,000,000 which at the midpoint is down approximately 5.5% from prior quarter. In Enterprise Computing Solutions, we expect sales to be between $1,630,000,000 and $1,830,000,000 which is approximately unchanged at the midpoint year on year.

For the company overall, we expect relatively stable gross margin sequentially. We're also assuming a tax rate in the range of approximately 23% to 25% and interest expense of approximately $60,000,000 to $65,000,000 And our non GAAP diluted earnings per share is expected to be between $1.3 and $1.5 And finally, given the strength in the U. S. Dollar, particularly relative to the euro, we estimate changes in foreign currencies to be a headwind in the first quarter, decreasing reported sales by approximately 200 basis points or $140,000,000 compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four. The details of the foreign currency impact can be found in our earnings release.

With that, Sean and I are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please open the line.

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. And your first question comes from the line of Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James and Associates. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thanks so much. Great quarter, great results. Good to see continued progress on the inventory front. I had one question for you, maybe for Raj.

Wondering if you guys happen to see any pull ins in the December either ahead of potential tariff activity, annual price increases or some end of life activity on some of the higher end devices. I think one of your peers last week cited something at least some benefit in the December.

Yes. Hi, Melissa. Thanks for joining. We did not see anything we did not see anything material due to any of those factors in our Q4 sales numbers.

Okay, great. And then just not to keep referencing other people's results, but one of your larger suppliers, earlier this week had noted that, while pricing was pretty benign for the past couple of years, they do expect to return to kind of a more normalized pricing environment with low single digit annual price concessions. Wondering if you're also seeing that if that just flows through in terms of your just the inventory that you have, you're pricing it and passing that along?

Well, I think this will help. I mean, as you know, our gross margins were stable from Q3 to Q4 in our Global Components segment. Our best data tells us that transactional margins in our core markets have held up for the most part this year and we kind of assume the same for Q1 and our Q1 outlook as well.

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking the questions. Curious, as we think about just the you talking about your bookings visibility maybe improving. I guess, how do we think about just the inter quarter turns demand that drove upside in 4Q and what's your assumption in 1Q for that?

You mean it's something different than our guide?

that the Just trying to understand that the Just trying to

Yes. Just trying to understand that the inter quarter turns kind of demand that you saw from your customers are just like just in time demand you saw in 4Q and that being a driver of upside in the fourth quarter on the component side. And then just how do we think about that dynamic in in the first quarter? Are you expecting that to kind of maybe normalize as bookings are starting to improve?

Got it. Thank you. Well, the first thing I think we'd say is that we are seeing some mix trends across regions and verticals. So we're not surprised by some ebb and flow from one quarter to the next. I would say that our turns business as you characterize it was relatively stable from Q3 to Q4 and we think it will be relatively stable again in Q1.

Obviously, the big wild card is the mass market overall and when that fully recovers. We think that as inventories gradually continue to decline that will be a stimulus for basically better visibility, more normal ordering patterns and then a backlog which will improve. But it's a little difficult to call Beyonce ninety days at a time.

Okay. Fair enough. And then can you help us just Raj, help us understand the OpEx dynamics embedded in the 1Q guide given that the I think your comment was relatively stable gross margins. And then how do we kind of flow in the cost savings of some of the restructuring that you're doing?

Yes. Absolutely. The way I think about it, Joe, is that if you look back eighteen months in the middle of twenty twenty three when we began some of the larger cost efficiency programs, we were running at a quarterly expense rate of $650,000,000 to $670,000,000 And since then, we've taken at least $200,000,000 of costs, annual costs out of the business. So that implies that we're down $50,000,000 quarterly or $600,000,000 as an OpEx number. And that's probably a better starting point as you look at the first quarter.

And then as we announced in the fourth quarter of last year, we also plan to get an additional $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 of savings, of which we should get about a third this year. So there's further opportunity from that number. And then we're certainly investing back in the business as well beyond that. So hopefully that helps a little bit.

Your next question comes from the line of Rupal Bhattacharya with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Sean, I think you said in the prepared remarks that we're in the late innings of inventory correction. What is giving you confidence that this is almost over? Or is that what you meant?

And which parts are still in excess in the supply chain?

Well, Ruplu, I'd like to think that it's almost over. I think we believe it's later innings because we have seen inventory levels slowly decline more broadly. You can imagine we triangulate a variety of data points each quarter to get a good read on where we think inventory levels are, not to mention our own. Having said that, obviously the broader market and the return of the mass market is still a question as to when it returns at more scale. But we think that we've got a good handle on the first quarter.

We think given where our book to bill ratio sit and given what we see in our current visibility and backlog patterns that we are at the bottom. And there is a path to improvement across the course of the full year. It's partly market dependent, but it's also a function of what I just described as inventories do come down, if they come down at the rate that we expect. And then we've also been really busy on the business development front. We've taken some matters into our own hands and we believe there's some wins both on the supplier and customer base front that will roll into the business throughout the course of the year and that will help too.

Again, the wild card is the broader market overall. That one we can't call and we can't control, but we think there's some improving factors within our mix and within our longer term outlook.

And the second part of my question was, was there are there specific parts that are still excess? Are there specific type of components that are in excess in the inventory?

Nothing material in any one particular component type, Ruplu. We've as Ross mentioned, we brought down our total inventories by over $1,000,000,000 from their peak in I think Q3 of twenty twenty three. I think our turns were up year on year in Q4 and our units were down both quarter to quarter and year on year as well. So I think we're doing a pretty good job of managing inventory. It doesn't mean we still don't have pockets of excess here and there, but we're not too concerned about the quality of our inventory overall.

We certainly don't see any long term obsolescence challenges that we haven't adequately reserved for.

Okay. Thanks for the details there. If I can ask one question to Raj. For both of the segments, the Global Components and for ECS, can you help us think about or how should we think about the margin progression between 4Q and 1Q? I mean, how do you see the mix of geographies and Global Components?

How is that going to impact margins? And how do you see the mix impacting margins in ECS? So any color, if you can give us, on how you see the sequential change in operating margins in 1Q for both of the segments? Thank you.

Yes. I mean, as I mentioned briefly in my comments, for both segments, I see gross margins being relatively stable from Q4 to Q1. We did have some mix related impacts in the fourth quarter from Q3. But if you just think about ECS has its biggest quarter seasonal quarter in the fourth quarter and its lowest quarter in the first quarter. And so there's some step down just from a seasonality standpoint, but I think gross margins will hold relatively well.

And it's really a question of negative leverage from the components business that steps down operating margins going into Q1.

Yes. Rooplu, I would just add, the biggest driver of the step down for EPS overall is the sharp seasonality in our ECS business as Raj correctly mentions. Q1 is the smallest of the year for that business, so it has an impact on the corporation overall. But I would also say that the best way to look at the ECS business is really on a year over year basis as we've talked versus in components we tend to look at things on a sequential basis for all the right reasons. But we will see year on year operating margin expansion in that business for sure.

Okay. And sorry, just the on the component segment, do you see any change in the geographic mix? I mean, do you think Europe still remains weak in 1Q and Asia strong? Or how should we think about this relative mix of regions impacting margins?

Yes. I think you're on the right track. We see fairly seasonal patterns for us in Asia and the Americans, but our outlook in Europe is sub seasonal given all the macro challenges we face in that market.

Thank you for taking my questions. Appreciate it.

And your next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Another one on inventories. I received some messages from investors who were a bit surprised that inventory ticked up in dollars in Q4. And, I guess, I'm a little bit surprised given I want to acknowledge there's been good progress from the inventory peak, but I still think this is sort of above what you would target.

So maybe first you can help me understand, is there a target level that you'd like to talk to us about, about where you'd like to take inventories in the long term? And then shorter term, is this just a matter of some stuff in your inventory, perhaps not moving as quickly. So the number that we looked at on your balance sheet may not really represent sort of the turns activity that you're doing because some of it sort of stuck and other stuff is moving much faster. Any help around that would be great. Thank you.

Sure thing, Will. Let me come back at that again. I think similar to Roopla's question, there aren't any significant pockets of excess or slow moving in the overall mix that stand out in a way that we're overly concerned. As I think I mentioned, we believe we've got a lot of good inventory, it's just taking longer to sell. That's really what we're up against.

But if you ask us about the target levels, we typically focus at turns. It's a key metric for us and we're starting to approach historical turn rates similar to what we saw pre pandemic and pre severe shortage environment. And the other is really working capital as a percent of sales. And I think the way that gets better is more about the denominator than the numerator. And as the mass market returns, we think we're going to like where that metric heads as well.

So I don't know that that's completely satisfying for you, Will, but we don't have any big material one timers in our mix that we're overly concerned about.

That's helpful. Maybe one more if I can. It sounds like based on your earlier comments about feeling like you're in the latter innings of this dynamic that you must have a view to customer inventories being either bottomed or approaching that. Any commentary on that please?

Yes. We think that broadly, again this is a broad statement. You can only sort of triangulate so many data points at once. But we think broadly in our core markets, inventories are creeping down. We'd love to see them come down more quickly, but that's ultimately a function of the broader economic and demand environment.

We can't control that. But we do see them creeping down and we do know that eventually that means order patterns will normalize and our visibility will improve and our backlog will grow. Again, we think those things are steady now for us versus in decline, but we obviously need them to grow to signal a broader recovery. And two, keep in mind that we're always conscious of the changing dynamics of our customers and their production schedules and we've got thousands and thousands of customers. So we do want to be leaning in when the market recovers so that we can best support them.

And so we're not too far on our heels here. At the same time, we're careful not to lean too forward on our toes either at the same time. We're managing that balance I think very carefully.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Brad Windbigler for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining today's call. We look forward to meeting with you at upcoming investor events. Have a good day.

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

Arrow Electronics (ARW) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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