Japan’s population falls by half million as birth rate stays low

The overall population dropped by 550,000 from the previous year to 123.8 million in 2024, extending the streak of declines to 14 years, according to data as of October 2024 released Monday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The number of Japanese nationals alone declined by 898,000, the steepest fall since comparable records began in 1950.

The data serve as another reminder of Japan’s bleak demographic outlook, raising alarms over the sustainability of its social welfare system as the number of contributors dwindles. The number of people aged 15 to 64—the core of the labor force—fell by 224,000 to 73.7 million, intensifying the fiscal strain on a nation already carrying the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among developed economies.

Data also show that Japan’s child population declined by 343,000 to 13.8 million, or a record-low 11.2% of the total. That drop follows labor ministry figures released in February that showed births fell to a new historic low, amplifying concerns over the long-term future of domestic industries amid a dwindling supply of new workers.

Japan’s unemployment rate is 2.4%, the lowest among OECD countries, and has stayed below 3% for four years. By 2040, Japan is projected to face a labor shortfall of 11 million, according to an estimate by Recruit Works Institute.

Partially offsetting the overall population shortfall, the number of foreign residents rose for the third straight year, increasing by 342,000 from a year earlier, the latest data show.

Japan’s population woes mirror broader global patterns. South Korea’s fertility rate ticked up slightly last year for the first time in nine years, but at just 0.75, it remains well below the replacement rate. In France, the drop in births accelerated in 2023 to the fastest pace in half a century, while China’s population has declined for three consecutive years.