• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
Commentary

The U.S. trade deficit: It’s time to dump do-it-yourself economics and go back to basics

By
Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke
and
Caleb Hofmann
Caleb Hofmann
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke
and
Caleb Hofmann
Caleb Hofmann
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 18, 2025, 11:44 AM ET
Container ships loading up in China.
Container ships loading up in China.CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Since President Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, it seems that many people—particularly the chattering classes—have suddenly become experts in international trade. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have spawned a litany of what economist David Henderson termed “do-it-yourself economics.” These are economic ideas that reflect the intuitive notions of laypeople and owe nothing to the ideas generated by trained economists and the economics profession. Not surprisingly, Henderson concluded that the gap between the notions of do-it-yourself economics and orthodox economics is widest in the sphere of international trade.

This gap is evident in the current brouhaha over trade and tariffs, particularly in the two opposing camps: those responsible for formulating the administration’s trade agenda (Mr. Trump and his cabinet) and those critiquing it (primarily commentators and journalists). The result of this dynamic is not only that the Trump administration has enacted wrongheaded trade policies, but also that the opposition to these policies is largely ineffective or irrelevant. Both camps are engaged in do-it-yourself economics.

The misconceptions emanating from both camps stem from one common oversight: Neither Mr. Trump nor his detractors have familiarized themselves with the savings-investment identity, a basic yet crucial mechanism that governs the magnitude of a country’s trade balance. Indeed, by definition, a country’s trade balance is governed entirely by the gap between its domestic saving and domestic investment. If a country’s domestic saving is greater than its domestic investment, like China’s, it will register a trade surplus. Likewise, if a country has a savings deficiency, like the United States, it will register a trade deficit. The United States’ negative trade balance, which the country has registered every year starting in 1975, is “made in the USA,” a result of its savings deficiency. To view the trade balance correctly, the focus should be on the domestic economy.

As it turns out, one of us, Hanke, analyzed the United States’ large and persistent trade deficits and found that they are primarily driven by its large and persistent fiscal deficits at the federal, state, and local government levels. In other words, in the aggregate, there is a savings deficiency in the United States, and this savings deficiency comes from the public sector—the U.S. private sector actually generates a savings surplus. This aggregate gap between savings and investment is filled by foreign imports of goods and services, resulting in an easy-to-finance capital inflow surplus and a trade deficit.

Armed with the basic truth of the savings-investment identity, we now turn to Mr. Trump’s camp. Mr. Trump and his advisors believe that the United States’ trade deficit is the result of foreigners ripping off and taking advantage of the United States. Indeed, Uncle Sam is characterized as being a victim of unfair trade practices. This characterization is clearly wrong on two counts. First, the trade deficit is not caused by foreigners; rather, it is homegrown, the result of choices made by Americans (in the aggregate) to invest beyond what they save.

Second, the trade deficit is not necessarily harmful. It instead appears to be a privilege extended to Americans by foreigners willing to invest in U.S. assets. This is a symbiotic relationship: Americans get cheap access to capital, while foreign governments and institutions get a safe place to park their money and earn a return.

When it comes to trade policy, the Trump administration’s detractors are just as lost as the White House. A recent high-profile article in the New York Times—“‘Totally Silly.’ Trump’s Focus on Trade Deficit Bewilders Economists,” contains an indicative summary of what journalists and commentators have to say about trade deficits. There’s just one little problem with the article and its respondents: No one ever explicitly mentions the true source of the trade deficit, which is elucidated by one of the most basic identities in economics. The identity tells us that if savings are less than investment, the gap must be filled by a trade deficit.

Both Mr. Trump’s cabinet and those criticizing his policies have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives the U.S. trade deficit. As a result, the trade debate has turned into a futile filibuster, highlighting the dangers of do-it-yourself economics. It’s time to go back to the basics.

Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University and the author, with Leland Yeager, of Capital, Interest, and Waiting. Caleb Hofmann is a research scholar at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

Read more:

  • How to restore confidence in the U.S. dollar—and why it’s faltering in the first place
  • Trump’s tariffs are not ‘common sense’—and they’re putting America’s credibility and ‘exorbitant privilege’ at risk
  • USA Brands CEO: Where tariffs hurt small businesses the most
  • The pursuit of ‘lean’ operations has left companies mercilessly exposed to the tariffs chaos—and facing an existential threat
About the Authors
Steve H. Hanke
By Steve H. Hanke
Twitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Caleb Hofmann
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

surman
CommentaryMozilla
Mozilla President: meet the open source ‘rebel alliance’ that could break Big Tech’s grip on AI
By Mark SurmanJune 29, 2026
5 hours ago
wendy
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Wendy Schmidt: Three centuries of science is something to celebrate
By Wendy SchmidtJune 29, 2026
6 hours ago
a
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Atomic Industries CEO: America spent 60 years retreating from manufacturing. The next 100 are about building it back
By Aaron SlodovJune 29, 2026
6 hours ago
Sofia
CommentaryLeadership
This CEO became 3x more productive with AI. Then she read what her daughter wrote about it at Dartmouth
By Maria Colacurcio and Sofia FreiJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Anthony Scaramucci
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Anthony Scaramucci on America 250: where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
By Anthony ScaramucciJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
family
CommentaryColleges and Universities
More than 3 million college students are raising kids. Most won’t graduate
By Enyi OkebugwuJune 28, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
4 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
2 days ago
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
Success
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
Success
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
By Preston ForeJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
Environment
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
By Catherina GioinoJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
Politics
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
By Jason MaJune 28, 2026
23 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.