Logistics experts are warning that cargo volumes at U.S. ports are undergoing a precipitous drop. This trend is most apparent in Los Angeles, home to the nation’s busiest port, and one that is first to feel any drop-off from Asian shipping. The drop in container shipping is the latest sign the White House’s trade war is having a real effect on the U.S. economy, and one sizable group of workers is poised to feel the impact first: long-haul truckers.
On Thursday, the founder of a media firm that tracks shipping trends reported that daily volumes this week are equivalent to Thanksgiving and Christmas Day—the two slowest shipping days of the year. The founder, Craig Fuller, also warned truckers to avoid hauling shipments to Los Angeles since they would likely have to “deadhead” back home—the industry term for driving an empty load.
Trucking volumes out of Los Angeles are equivalent to Thanksgiving and close to Christmas.
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 24, 2025
Thanksgiving and Christmas are typically the lowest volume days of the year.
Truckers should avoid taking freight to Southern Cal, else risk having to deadhead back to Dallas to get… pic.twitter.com/fdF0JCozWO
The drop-off coincides with the ongoing fallout from the global trade war launched by President Donald Trump, which imposed tariffs on countries around the world, and singled out China for a dramatic 145% levy. This has led to a resulting drop-off in orders for Chinese goods, though the effect on shipping is only hitting U.S. shores now.
This week, though, the effect is beginning to be felt at West Coast ports—and is soon going to become far more pronounced. Here is a chart from Port Optimizer, hosted by the Port of Los Angeles, that shows what is poised to happen to import volumes:
Those declining volumes will translate directly to even fewer loads for truckers at the Port of Los Angeles, but that is only the beginning of the ripple effects. In addition to a coinciding drop-off at other West Coast ports like Long Beach and Seattle, truckers in other cities—where vessels take longer to arrive from Asia—will see deliveries dry up.
On X, entrepreneur Molson Hart posted shipping route data to show that in the next two weeks, containers will stop arriving in Houston and Chicago, and that the same will happen in New York a week later:
The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.
— molson 🧠⚙️ (@Molson_Hart) April 24, 2025
Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.
It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.
45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.
55 to New York by sea.
That… pic.twitter.com/8vnGDMWCpt
Earlier this week, President Trump indicated that he was ready to scale back some of his tariffs. That may not be enough, however, to reassure skittish trading partners wary that the President’s tariff policy could shift again. Meanwhile, a near-term drop-off in container traffic is now a certainty, meaning that U.S. truckers may have to get used to driving fewer miles for the foreseeable future.
