Halliburton was the first of the so-called Big Three oilfield services firms—along with SLB and Baker Hughes—to report its first-quarter earnings, which fell short of analyst expectations as the stock price plunged by about 6% on April 22.

Of the Big Three, Halliburton is the most exposed to North America which, because of the quicker turnaround times for oil wells in the onshore U.S., tends to slow down faster than the rest of the world when oil prices decline as they have in recent weeks and months.

Miller said tariff impacts on steel and equipment are expected to decrease Halliburton’s stock price per share by 2-3 cents in the second quarter. While the industry is buoyed by international offshore work that’s on the upswing, overall international revenue is expected to be flat to down in 2025.

“There is more risk embedded in our outlook today than three months ago,” Miller said in the earnings call.

“The last three weeks have been highly dynamic as the trade environment injected uncertainty in the markets, raised broad economic concerns and, along with the faster-than-expected return of OPEC production, weighed on commodity prices. These market forces impact us all,” Miller said, arguing that he remains bullish on oil and gas demand fueling global economic growth longer term.

Miller’s comments come within the context of an oil and gas industry that is loath to publicly criticize Trump, especially since the contention is the administration’s push to lift regulations and fast-track infrastructure projects will eventually outweigh trade war woes.

Industry outlook

Derek Podhaizer, senior research analyst for Piper Sandler, said Halliburton and the rest of the industry are in a no man’s land amid trade wars and the U.S. benchmark for oil prices stuck in a range between $60 and $65 per barrel—too low to be content but just high enough to avoid ringing alarm bells. The result is a “massive wave of uncertainty.”

“In North America, there really is no outlook right now,” Podhaizer said. “You just have to wait and see. News flow changes every single day; it almost feels like every single hour we might get a new announcement from the [Trump] administration that might reverse course for the oil price. So, at this point, I think the stocks will just follow the oil price. We’re in this stall mode.”

“Some of the bigger, best-capitalized guys will be fine, but I imagine some of the smaller, price-sensitive, higher-cost players might be thinking about tapping the brakes on activity,” he added.

U.S. drilling rig and well completions activity has slowed down for more than a year now as prices have dipped, but also because rigs and fleets are operating more efficiently than ever, which is why oil and gas production volumes are largely stagnant but remain at or near all-time highs.

Rather than fight for market share amid weaker crude oil prices and margins, Halliburton will either retire underutilized equipment and pressure pumping—fracking—fleets or reallocate them oversees, Miller said. “Nevertheless, I expect Halliburton to outperform the North America services market.”

Halliburton’s older diesel-powered fleets are most at risk, while the modern electric-fracturing fleets are almost fully booked.

For instance, Miller touted the successful launch of the first-ever, fully autonomous fracking job conducted with Coterra Energy for its Octiv Auto Frac service and Zeus IQ intelligent fracturing platform.

Halliburton’s North American revenues fell 12% year-over-year down to $2.24 billion, but up 1% sequentially from the seasonal lows in the fourth quarter. Total revenues fell 3.3% year-over-year, boosted by gains in the Middle East and Asia, including Saudi Arabia, which is leading production increases within OPEC.

Halliburton’s quarterly net income of $204 million dipped from $606 million in the first quarter of 2024.