As more than two-thirds of U.S. public schools say they already can’t sustain free meals for their students, one economist is sounding the alarms and says the Trump administration’s updated dietary guidelines may make these financial troubles even worse.
For the 2023-2024 school year, the government provided 4.8 billion lunches to the nearly 29.4 million students belonging to the National School Lunch Program, at a cost of $17.7 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Part of this sum takes the form of cash reimbursements to schools serving free or reduced-cost food to students, with free lunch costing roughly $4.70 per student per meal.
Many schools, however, say the assistance they receive to feed students the subsidized meals are not enough. A recent survey of more than 1,170 school nutrition directors from the trade group the School Nutrition Association (SNA) found this year, 69.6% reported insufficient reimbursement rates to cover the cost of school lunches, an increase from 67.4% the previous year. More than half of the directors said there is “serious concern” about the financial sustainability of their school nutrition programs over the next three years, up from 46% from the 2024-2025 school year.
Changes to school lunches
These school nutrition directors were surveyed in October 2025, and since then, additional factors may threaten the robustness of school lunch programs. Though reimbursements per meal increase each year alongside rising food costs, President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act slashed funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, ending automatic free meal eligibility of children. Fewer children qualifying for SNAP lowers a school’s identified student percentage of those requiring assistance, meaning fewer reimbursements may be offered to schools providing free or reduced-cost meals.
The Department of Health and Human Services, under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has made a concerted effort to address the quality of school lunches, pushing schools to eliminate ultra-processed foods in favor of whole foods, fruits and vegetables, and more protein. The push is part of Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again movement and retooled dietary guidelines released at the beginning of the year. Schools must abide by these guidelines, intended to address children’s health, in order to continue receiving federal funding.
While nutrition experts have lauded the push toward scratch-made meals and more whole food options under the updated dietary guidelines, economists worry the push will further strain schools already concerned with the future of their school lunch programs
“The issue here is the operational reality of getting there with the current level of funding,” David Ortega, professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, told Fortune. “Not having enough staff, culinary training that comes with trying to do a lot of that more whole-food scratch cooking, the need for equipment and infrastructure—these are really operational issues that have to be addressed from a funding perspective.”
Last month at a Congressional briefing, SNA President Stephanie Dillard called for increased funding to help schools accommodate the new guidelines.
The “$4.70 must cover the food and the supplies, our labor and our equipment, deliveries and utilities, and the list goes on,” she said. “Our St. Patrick’s Day menu featured a scratch-prepared Shepherd’s Pie using fresh, locally sourced beef.”
“I wish we could offer this option regularly, but local beef is priced about $3 more per pound.”
Ortega said that without increased resources, the cost of serving affordable or free meals to students will increase, forcing schools to make difficult decisions.
“You may have loss of coverage for some children and schools, and schools may be taking on more debt for some of the unpaid meals,” he said.
HHS and USDA did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
The rising costs of feeding children
The cost of feeding schoolchildren has been on the rise for years, in tandem with rising labor costs and increased food prices. Since early 2020, grocery prices have increased nearly 30%—far outpacing the broader inflation rate—as a result of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts like the war in Ukraine creating supply chain bottlenecks for commodities, as well as a tightening labor market in agriculture and food production driving up wages and therefore food costs. The preexisting challenges were reflected in the survey results showing rising concern for the financial sustainability of school meal programs.
“These programs were already stretched thin before the guidelines changed,” Ortega said.
But the new dietary guidelines present additional challenges because of the resources needed to execute them in schools already strapped for resources. The updated standards advocate for more red meat and whole-fat dairy, but beef prices have been on the rise amid dwindling cattle herd sizes. According to USDA data, more than half of schools report food service staffing shortages, which may require schools to invest in more expensive equipment to improve kitchen efficiency or risk not feeding students in a timely manner.
If MAHA’s goal is to truly improve the diet of Americans, it has to address the key financial barriers to accessing good food, Ortega argued.
“Healthy eating isn’t just a choice. There are real constraints,” he told Fortune following the announcement of the new guidelines. “If nutritional guidance is going to translate into real-world behavior, we have to account for these things: price levels, inflation dynamics, access constraints, and time costs.”
