JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an exodus of companies from New York as a result of climbing taxes and regulatory encumbrances, but emerging data suggests mass migration away from the metropolis has been greatly exaggerated.
In JPMorgan’s annual shareholder letter, Dimon wrote that “while New York City has much going for it,” it also has the highest corporate and income taxes, with the potential to scare off businesses and high-caliber talent as a result.
“Individuals vote with their feet,” Dimon wrote. “You can already see a fairly large exodus of people and jobs out of some states with high taxes and high expenses,” referencing the exodus of billionaires from California and Washington, states that have announced income taxes in recent months.
Billionaires such as Google cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin both divested from California as the state weighs a wealth tax on billionaires, snapping up property in Florida and Nevada, respectively. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, whose net worth is $6.6 billion, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, with $203 billion in wealth, have both bought Florida property.
And Dimon notes his company is following suit: Despite opening its new global headquarters in Manhattan last October, JPMorgan shrank its New York headcount by 20%, from 30,000 a decade ago to 24,000 today, Dimon wrote in his letter. Meanwhile, the bank is expanding its footprint in Texas, growing from 26,000 employees in 2015 to 32,000 today, a trend Dimon said, “will likely continue.”
Indeed, fewer taxes and looser regulations in Texas and Florida have helped create a “Wall Street South” of big businesses setting up shop in sunny states. Hedge fund giant Citadel, under Ken Griffin, is awaiting the completion of its $2.5 billion headquarters in Miami. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management, which manages nearly a trillion dollars in its portfolio, plans to move away from New York and open a second HQ in either Texas or South Florida.
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, with a noted socialist streak, has proposed a tax increase on New Yorkers making more than $1 million, which critics have cited as the impetus for New York’s wealthiest fleeing the state, and taking their money (and tax revenue) with them.
But a new white paper from real estate firm JLL shared exclusively with Fortune claimed there’s been a “myth of the mass exodus.” While there’s slightly more migration to Florida than New York, skilled professionals and early-career workers—though perhaps less wealthy and influential than their millionaire counterparts—still prefer the Big Apple to the Sunshine State. The firm’s recent analysis of office space in the first quarter of 2026 moreover found office vacancies in New York decreased by 2.2% to 13.5%, while leasing volume for high-quality office space reached 8.5 million square feet. Rents increased 3.5% year over year.
“The most sophisticated talent continues to gravitate toward major markets like Manhattan despite the headlines,” JLL wrote in its white paper, “and any slowdown in this growth is far more likely to stem from limited space supply on the island than from a lack of demand.”
The ‘myth of mass exodus’
Building on its data showing New York office space is still in high demand, JLL argued that the robustness of New York’s business sector is also dependent on a steady supply of qualified labor, which indicates that high-quality talent still gravitates toward the city. New York is not only still attractive to skilled workers, JLL suggested, but those stockpiles of professionals can similarly incentivize companies to stay.
Analyzing LinkedIn migration data showing job moves over the past 12 months, as well as education and demographic information on the site, JLL found that while 3% more individuals chose to migrate to Florida than New York, New York saw 10% more migrating mid- and early-career professionals from top schools than Florida. According to the analysis, New York is seeing a steady stream of new talent, with 70 skilled professionals migrating there for every one professional it loses to Florida.
This fresh data supplements what other real estate experts have been saying for months about the overexaggerated flight of influential New Yorkers. In November, following Mamdani’s election, signed contracts for Manhattan homes over $4 million rose 25% from October, according to brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraiser Miller Samuel. Olshan Realty similarly saw a 31% increase in Manhattan luxury home sales from October to November 2025.
Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel, previously told Fortune the trend of wealthy buyers scooping up luxury New York real estate was present for all of last year.
“Throughout 2025 on a year-over-year basis, overall sales have risen, prices have risen, sales have risen faster than inventory, rents have risen, rental activity has risen, and especially in October and November,” Miller said. “I’m looking at this anecdotal argument, and the plural of anecdotal is not data.”
But the future of New York as a nucleus for white-collar workers is not secured, JLL suggested. It found that migration to Florida was more common among early-career workers, while Florida also became more appealing to those later in their careers. While New York is being flooded with eager professionals, it may lose out to Florida in keeping them as they become more seasoned.
“This pattern matters more today than in the past,” JLL wrote. “Slower early-career hiring and AI-driven changes to entry-level roles weaken the pipeline that once offset senior departures, raising questions about the durability of New York’s long-term talent base.”
