As the price of crude oil surpassed $110 a barrel Monday, reaching heights not seen since 2022, consumers were feeling the effects of the Iran war and its damage to worldwide energy production.
Gasoline prices are climbing, and many people will find some of the most immediate economic pain at the pump.
But you don’t have to drive a car to be affected. Nearly all goods — including food — that are bought and sold must travel from where they’re produced. Those costs will climb with higher gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices.
And the spike in oil prices will likely be a big factor for U.S. inflation. As the war continues, some experts say the price of, well, everything could be affected.
“The longer this lasts, the more significant the shock would be,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon.
Here’s how the growing cost of oil and gas could impact consumers as the war continues.
At the pump: Gas prices are likely to continue climbing
Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are made from crude oil. As the cost of crude climbs, so do the prices of those widely used products, which keep equipment, cars, buses, delivery trucks and airplanes running.
Across the U.S., drivers were paying an average of $3.48 for a gallon of regular gasoline Monday, compared with $2.98 before the war started. Prices have increased about 17% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
Prices vary across states. In California, drivers were paying $5.20, up 12% from a week ago. Some of California’s refineries have shut down in recent years, so the massive state relies on imports of gasoline and other refined products from Asia.
By contrast, the average price in Louisiana, which has oil production and refineries, was $3.04.
The spike in oil prices is likely to further push up gasoline prices, and could be felt more significantly in Asia and Europe, which are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas than the United States.
The cost of shipping and goods increases alongside the price of diesel
The price of diesel — which powers 18-wheeler trucks — climbed Monday, too: to $4.65 a gallon in the U.S., a 23% jump since the war started.
“Can’t underscore what a massive jolt this is to the logistics, trucking, (agriculture) sectors,” Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X Monday.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, already has caused problems for the shipping industry. Quickly rising oil and gas prices will add to the burden.
Fuel prices account for 50% to 60% of the total operating cost of shipping goods by ship, according to Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, so higher fuel prices have a huge effect on the industry.
“When fuel prices start to go up, everything starts to slow down,” Penfield said. “So your ships slow down, your trucks slow down. People are less apt to ship things via air. And it really kind of causes a drag on the economy when fuel price go up.”
Fuel surcharges will also rise — as shipping companies aim to pass along higher costs to their customers, ultimately making goods more expensive.
Home energy bills will probably rise, and items made from plastic could cost more
Heating your home and cooking food with natural gas are also likely to cost more as the war grinds on.
Europe’s benchmark natural gas rose 75% since the war began, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.
That could also affect the cost of products made from natural gas, such as petrochemical feedstock. It’s used to make plastic and rubber, as well as nitrogen fertilizer.
Eventually, groceries might be more expensive, too
The spike in oil prices likely won’t be felt immediately at U.S. grocery stores, said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University. But if oil prices remain high for a month or more, he said, “we’re in different territory.”
Higher oil prices impact the agricultural sector in two ways, Ortega said. They raise the cost of inputs such as fuel for farm equipment and the fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas. They also raise demand for soybean oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils that can be used as replacements for petroleum-based fuel.
But Ortega said on-farm costs are only a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket. A larger share comes from the cost of processing and transporting food, which uses a lot of energy.
“Food gets to the grocery store on diesel, whether it’s on a truck or on a boat,” Ortega said.
If oil prices remain elevated, fresh foods that must be transported quickly could see price hikes more quickly than packaged foods, which are less perishable, Ortega said.
If inflation rises, everything gets more expensive
With U.S. oil prices increasing by roughly 42% from their pre-war levels, to roughly $95 a barrel from about $67 before the conflict, that could push up inflation in the United States from 2.4% in January to 3% or higher in the coming months, according to a rough estimate by economists at JPMorgan.
Economist Daco, of EY-Parthenon, estimated that the bump in gas prices could push monthly inflation to as high as 1% in March, which would be the highest monthly increase in four years. Yearly inflation would near 3% in that case.
“That’s a significant shock in and of itself,” Daco said.
Some experts say consumer spending will decrease
Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at the National Retail Federation, said higher gas prices would likely affect consumer spending, particularly lower-income shoppers.
U.S. households pay on average $2,500 a year, or nearly $50 a week, to fill up their tank, he said. If consumers are paying, say, $10 more per week, he said, their budgets are certainly affected.
“How do they offset that?” he said. “Going out to a movie theater or going to a theme park or going out to eat — all those areas would be … more likely see cuts.”
Some see hope that prices stay down — for now
Mathews expects that retailers will absorb higher transportation costs for a while — as many did with higher tariff s — before they increase prices.
Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned against passing along higher energy costs to consumers, recalling the lessons learned after Russia invaded Ukraine.
“We must act immediately to stop energy prices from spreading to all consumer goods, as happened in 2022,” he told a Monday G7 meeting in Brussels, according to a statement from his office.
Ed Anderson, a professor of supply chain and operations management for the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, said shippers won’t immediately pass on costs to customers.
“If the conflict is only in the short run, companies will eat it,” he said.
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Rugaber reported from Washington. Associated Press journalists Nicole Winfield in Rome, Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit and Anne D’Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.
