• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium

2

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts

3

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts

1

Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium

2

U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts

3

Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
EconomyTariffs

Trump’s $175 billion illegal tariff revenue is now accruing interest, and refund delays could be costing American taxpayers $700 million a month

Sasha Rogelberg
By
Sasha Rogelberg
Sasha Rogelberg
Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
Sasha Rogelberg
By
Sasha Rogelberg
Sasha Rogelberg
Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office. He looks ahead and points.
President Donald Trump's tariffs under International Emergency Economic Powers Act were deemed illegal by the Supreme Court.ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Even after the Supreme Court ruled the bulk of President Donald Trump’s illegal, U.S. consumers may still be paying for the levies.

Recommended Video

A report published on Monday from the Cato Institute, a libertarian policy thinktank, revealed that as the $175 billion in tariff revenue sits in the Treasury, it is accruing interest. The longer it takes for this money to be refunded to U.S. importers who paid the duties over the last year, the more interest piles up—to the tune of $700 million per month that American taxpayers will have to shoulder, according to the report.

Federal regulations outline that in the case of an overpayment for duties, including those determined to be illegal, those payments must be returned with interest. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) outlines this interest compounds daily at an annualized rate of 4.5% for overpayments more than $10,000 and 6% on overpayments less than that.

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics and the Stiefel Trade Policy Center at the Cato Institute, said with mounting interest on these illegal tariffs, U.S. consumers will weather more tariff pain.

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released last month confirmed the suspicions from American firms and consumers that they were the ones paying for the vast majority—indeed about 90%—of the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) last spring. The Yale Budget Lab calculated that IEEPA tariffs cost American households between $1,300 to $1,700 annually due to importers passing down prices. With a new wave of tariffs announced after the Supreme Court ruling, the Yale economists predict U.S. consumers will still pay about $800 per year from the levies.

“Consumers will be the biggest losers here, assuming refunds happen, because it’s not going to be a one-for-one,” Lincicome told Fortune, clarifying Americans will likely not see the entirety of refunds returned to them. “And since consumers are taxpayers, they’re going to get hit twice with paying even a little bit more in all these interest payments.”

The Cato Institute calculated $700 million in interest per month translates to about $23 million per day across about $130 million U.S. households.

How much interest will keep piling up?

Illegal tariff revenue is expected to sit in the Treasury for much longer than a month. The Supreme Court did not address refunds in their decision on the IEEPA tariffs, meaning there is no formal process on how money raised from the levies will be returned to importers. This process will instead be decided upon by CBP and lower courts, such as the Court of International Trade. As a result, refunds are expected to take between 12 to 18 months to reach importers, who can then return that cash to consumers. Trump said the matter could take years to litigate.

Over the next year, IEPPA tariff revenue would have accrued about $8 billion in interest. By the end of Trump’s term, that total would swell to more than $25 billion.

“There’s no guarantee you’re getting your higher prices you paid back,” Lincicome said. “In fact, I would think you’re probably not getting all of it, and you’re going to pay slightly higher taxes, too.”

Has the U.S. dealt with tariff refunds before?

There is, however, already precedent for how tariff refunds could be doled out. For the last 52 years, the U.S. has had a Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) which provides tariff reductions, generally for less-developed countries. However, over this period, the system has expired 11 times. During these lapses, U.S. importers pay the full tariffed amount outlined by U.S. trade policy, but following congressional reauthorization, a provision is made that overpaid tariffs will be refunded. Between 2021 and 2023, U.S. importers were owed about $3 billion in tariff refunds.

While the magnitude of IEEPA tariff refunds is much greater than GSP-related tariffs, the process of issuing those refunds doesn’t widely differ, according to Dan Anthony, president of economist research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide.

“The dollar value is pretty irrelevant,” Anthony told Fortune. “If you do a bank transfer, it doesn’t matter if the transfer is $5 or $500; you still go to the same site. You punch in the same numbers.”

The real trouble with tariff refunds is companies with contracts or handshake deals with importers that may change refunds owed to individual firms, Anthony said. Still, he suggested it’s better for the U.S. government to automate the transfer process to expedite the refunds, and then less importers navigate the rest.

“It’s about: How do you get to that hard step as quickly as possible, without putting up a bunch of hurdles before them?” Anthony said.

Subscribe to Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter delivers clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world’s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.
About the Author
Sasha Rogelberg
By Sasha RogelbergReporter
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Sasha Rogelberg is a reporter and former editorial fellow on the news desk at Fortune, covering retail and the intersection of business and popular culture.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Economy

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Economy

The rise of white-collar socialists: ‘A lot of tech workers are working class’
EconomyLabor
The rise of white-collar socialists: ‘A lot of tech workers are working class’
By Jason MaJuly 11, 2026
5 hours ago
The ‘Soccer Capital of America’ is now gunning for the Soccer Capital of the World (Cup)
EconomySports
The ‘Soccer Capital of America’ is now gunning for the Soccer Capital of the World (Cup)
By Catherina GioinoJuly 11, 2026
8 hours ago
There’s no escape from inflation as a perfect storm of the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño, AI boom, Trump tariffs, fuel crunch, and Ukraine war keep prices high
EconomyInflation
There’s no escape from inflation as a perfect storm of the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño, AI boom, Trump tariffs, fuel crunch, and Ukraine war keep prices high
By Jason MaJuly 11, 2026
8 hours ago
Help not wanted: World Cup hiring boost has yet to materialize
Economytourism
Help not wanted: World Cup hiring boost has yet to materialize
By Augusta Saraiva, Maya Prakash and BloombergJuly 11, 2026
10 hours ago
German carmakers are suffering some of their worst declines ever in China as Q2 sales plunge 30%-41%
AsiaAutos
German carmakers are suffering some of their worst declines ever in China as Q2 sales plunge 30%-41%
By Chan Ho-Him and The Associated PressJuly 11, 2026
11 hours ago
Family members sitting on a sofa together
EconomyLabor
More noncollege-educated men are living at home and falling out of the labor market, forcing a decline in marriages, all thanks to rising rents
By Catherina GioinoJuly 11, 2026
14 hours ago

Most Popular

Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium
Environment
Wyoming officials say Meta’s 715,000-square-foot data center is responsible for contaminating its water system with a rare bacterium
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 10, 2026
1 day ago
U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
Economy
U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of this fiscal year—and is now paying $24 billion a week in interest on its debts
By Eleanor PringleJuly 10, 2026
2 days ago
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
Success
Billionaire MacKenzie Scott just donated $20 million to support America’s youth mental health, as a fifth of teens struggle with suicidal thoughts
By Emma BurleighJuly 9, 2026
2 days ago
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
Middle East
Top Iranian officials admitted to the supreme leader that the U.S. naval blockade was crushing the economy, report says, as Trump eyes reimposing it
By Jason MaJuly 10, 2026
1 day ago
'The first time ever in my career': Senior Citi executive on why the ultrawealthy want to diversify away from America
Banking
'The first time ever in my career': Senior Citi executive on why the ultrawealthy want to diversify away from America
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 11, 2026
14 hours ago
Americans are quietly abandoning the daily habit that billionaires say set them up for success—and it could have lasting consequences
Success
Americans are quietly abandoning the daily habit that billionaires say set them up for success—and it could have lasting consequences
By Preston ForeJuly 11, 2026
14 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.