Oil and natural gas production have reached record-high numbers in the country, but that won’t stop energy from taking center stage at the midterms.
Members of both parties are bracing for an economic showdown over rising electricity costs, as Americans see soaring power bills as the new inflation indicator ahead of November.
Voters are pointing fingers at the proliferation of data centers in rural areas across the nation as a reason for the uptick in energy costs. And according to a recent Morgan Stanley Wealth Management report, the current power drain is merely a drop in the bucket—data centers and generative AI are forecasted to account for 75% of incremental load growth through 2030.
As of late 2025, the United States was home to 5,427 AI-related facilities and counting, or roughly 45% of the world’s data centers. They’re scattered throughout the country, taking up millions of square feet, often covering hundreds or even thousands of acres, dwarfing the typical comparison to football fields. Since modern AI runs on tens of thousands of heavy and power-hungry graphics processing units (GPUs), the energy pull from these centers can require hundreds of megawatts, or even a gigawatt, of power.
As a result, the report noted, electricity costs in communities near large data center developments have risen by as much as 267% compared with 2020 levels. “The U.S. energy narrative in 2026 is defined by a paradox,” wrote the team, led by strategist Monica Guerra. “America is producing record amounts of oil and exporting record volumes of natural gas, while electricity costs are rising in key regions, pressuring affordability and catapulting energy pricing as a defining political issue ahead of the midterm elections.” The early indications are that Republicans, holding the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives, are extremely vulnerable in this state of affairs.
Affordability at the ballot box
The strategy appears to be working: Democrats are outperforming their 2024 numbers—and Republicans—by double-digit percentages, according to Axios. In the 20 state legislative districts that held special elections this year, Democrats saw an average 10.5 percentage point increase compared with their 2024 performance. That spike grows to an average of 13.9 points in the 67 state House and Senate races last year.
Democrats are hammering home the increased cost of living for voters, while the GOP looks to address polling showing large disapproval ratings with how President Trump is handling the economy, on top of unfavorable ratings on his immigration crackdown and how he’s handled the Epstein files.
Among the key economic issues Republicans are looking to address is the Trump administration’s rollback of federal funding for clean energy. Calling solar and wind power “the scam of the century,” Trump and Republicans reversed clean energy programs originally established by Democrats in 2022, and have canceled federal grants for clean energy projects.
Energy affordability is already a strained issue, and should federal disinterest in alternative modes of energy continue, the report warns, it’ll be an even larger issue in future. Natural gas is expected to meet only 30% of AI-driven demand in 2030.
The report notes despite the political rhetoric, clean energy stocks have outperformed traditional energy by over 45% since early 2025, driven largely by macroeconomic and interest rate trends rather than by partisan politics. Still, the growing need for energy will go unmet should current policy continue.
Retail gas prices are up 3% this year, while U.S. natural gas exports to Europe have quadrupled since late 2021 as European dependence on Russian gas continues to dwindle. Despite this, prices are still soaring: West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose 13% in early 2026 amid geopolitical tensions in Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
However, there is bipartisan support to power data centers using nuclear energy. Unlike intermittent renewables, nuclear energy provides a reliable, carbon-free baseload power, an attractive option to meet AI’s high energy demands. So far, the Trump administration has issued an executive order that would fast-track construction of nuclear reactors to a strict 18-month deadline.
