If you’ve been feeling uncertain about the future of the economy, you’re not the only one. As the war in Iran pinches the global energy supply for the foreseeable future, and as AI companies threaten to reshape the entire labor force, business leaders are feeling uncertainty too.
A recent survey of 141 CEOs found their confidence in the economy has decreased significantly between the first two quarters of 2026. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell from 59 in Q1 to 47 in Q2. A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.
“CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months,” said Dana M. Peterson, the chief economist at the research group the Conference Board. “Regarding their own industries, CEO assessments about current conditions and expectations in six months deteriorated since last quarter.”
Nearly half of respondents said general economic conditions were worse than six months ago, compared to just 8% last quarter. The survey, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, found that CEOs’ top concerns were cyber, geopolitical, and AI risks. Supply chain issues and energy concerns also rose in importance for business leaders.
These concerns are almost certainly tied to the global energy disruption the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused in the last three months. Though President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, the U.S., Israel, and Iran have yet to reach a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, gas prices have increased 50% since the war started, and supply chain issues are mounting.
Take Maersk, the world’s second-largest shipping company that operates 700 vessels and ships about 14% of global containerized goods, as an example. CEO Vincent Clerc said the war is costing the company an extra $500 million a month, a sum the business is trying not to pass onto customers but warns it may be inevitable.
The CEOs’ perspectives on their own industries were also more pessimistic this quarter. A third said that the conditions in their industries were worse than six months ago and another third said the situation was better.
“Planned business investment stayed the course in Q2, as most CEOs cited no revisions to capital investment plans. However, the share anticipating increases to capital spending plans in the next 12 months rose further, while fewer CEOs expect to reduce capex compared to Q1,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council.
Three in 10 CEOs expected to reduce their workforce, up from 27% during Q1. More than half of the respondents said AI would not fundamentally transform their sectors, though they are preparing to upskill their workforce. Nearly a fourth of CEOs said they will need to upskill more than 50% of their employees in the next two years.
