• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
Economygovernment debt

America’s national debt borrowing binge means interest payments will rocket to $2 trillion a year by 2036, CBO says

Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 11, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
trump
President Donald Trump on Feb. 5, 2026, in Washington, D.C.Alex Wong—Getty Images

The White House of 2036 will have a mammoth task on its hands: It will need to rustle up more than $2 trillion a year to pay the interest on its national debt burden, approximately 5% of the nation’s entire economy.

According to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government will continue to run a sizable and growing deficit over the next decade. In 2026, the shortfall will stand at about $1.8 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Come 2036, that will have ballooned to $3.1 trillion, or roughly 7% of the American economy.

Projections of increased borrowing year after year—regardless of whichever party is in the White House—means the U.S. will also increase the burden of interest payments needed to service its debt. At the moment, America’s national debt stands at $38.59 trillion, with Treasury data showing the government has paid out $427 billion in interest this fiscal year alone.

While the Treasury has grown used to servicing its debt to the tune of more than a trillion dollars annually for the past few years, that figure will double to $2.14 trillion by 2036, nearly double the yearly budget for spending on defense. According to an analysis released by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in December, $1 trillion per year in annual interest payments will be normal from here on out.

Breaking down the balance sheet over the next 10 years, the CBO estimated that the American economy will generate healthy revenues over the next decade. In 2026, it will rake in approximately $5.6 trillion, $5.9 trillion in 2027, and comfortably more than $8.3 trillion by 2036. Aiding the balance sheet’s bottom line into the future will be President Trump’s tariff regime, knocking $3 trillion off deficits, although the CBO highlighted these tariffs are inflationary, a claim the Trump White House disputes.

Recommended Video

The tariffs in practice are also turning into, in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s phrase, a “shrinking ice cube,” as Trump’s continuing diminishment of their size as he strikes new trade deals had knocked $800 billion off his budgeted deficit reduction as of November, per the CBO. Since then, Trump slashed the tariff rates for India, announcing the outlines of a deal shortly after India and the European Union announced a comprehensive pact nearly 20 years in the making.

The biggest revenue drivers for the government over the next decade will be individual income taxes and payroll taxes, bringing in $4.2 trillion and $2.66 trillion come 2036, respectively.

While the income of the U.S. government will grow steadily, so too will its outgoings. By 2036, mandatory outlays such as Social Security and major health care programs such as Medicaid and Medicare will total more than $7 trillion, vying for the majority of the government’s funding before discretionary spending can be allocated.

Much of this is the result of America‘s aging population: According to the Population Reference Bureau, the number of Americans age 65 or older will grow from 58 million in the early 2020s to 82 million come 2050, representing a 42% increase. As such, Social Security outgoings will go from $1.6 trillion in 2026 to $2.7 trillion in 2036, and health care programs will grow from $1.9 trillion to $3.1 trillion. This means the combined increases in spending on health care programs and net interest outlays alone come to near a quarter of the size of America’s economy in 10 years’ time.

In other words, aging boomers have voted themselves increasingly lavish benefits, putting them on future generations’ proverbial credit card.

Increasing the burden on Americans

Despite theories that foreign investors could leverage their holdings of U.S. debt to punish America for its increasing aggression toward its allies, or warnings that investors may back out of the market over policy (à la Liz Truss), many economists think the outcome will be somewhat less dramatic.

“Financial repression” is one option: mandating that institutions must hold more debt, thus ensuring buyers prop up its value. Or inflation could be allowed to trickle higher: Bad for consumers, but it would erode the real value of the debt. Quantitative easing could be another option, as increasing the money supply may prove inflationary but would have the desired effect of lowering the real value of borrowing.

The most likely outcome—unless the U.S. is able to rebalance its books by growing the economy out of an unbalanced debt-to-GDP ratio—is that U.S. consumers are going to end up paying, at some point, for the debts accumulated by the generations before them. As such, nonpartisan think tanks including the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation are calling for guardrails to be introduced to ensure present and future governments do not continue running deficits outsized to their revenues.

“CBO’s latest budget projection is an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path,” Peterson Foundation CEO, Michael Peterson, told Fortune in a statement. “Improving affordability for American families is a top priority for the nation. Borrowing trillion after trillion takes us in the wrong direction, leading to higher interest costs and higher prices for everyday needs.”

As Maya MacGuineas, president of the CRFB said in a statement earlier this week: “Unless lawmakers want record-high debts and deficits to be our norm, both sides of the aisle must come together to address our unsustainable borrowing. The longer lawmakers wait, the higher the price for Americans.”

This election year, Peterson claimed, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition, plus the financial markets are watching: “Stabilizing our debt is an essential part of improving affordability, and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.” 

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
About the Author
Eleanor Pringle
By Eleanor PringleSenior Reporter, Economics and Markets
LinkedIn icon

Eleanor Pringle is an award-winning senior reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance. Eleanor previously worked as a business correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U.K. She completed her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Economy

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • Future 50
  • World’s Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
Sections
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Success
  • Tech
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Environment
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Health
  • Retail
  • Lifestyle
  • Politics
  • Newsletters
  • Magazine
  • Features
  • Commentary
  • Mpw
  • CEO Initiative
  • Conferences
  • Personal Finance
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
About Us
  • About Us
  • Editorial Calendar
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Diversity And Inclusion
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Economy

President Donald Trump pictured in front of a waving American flag.
EconomyU.S. economy
Trump’s immigration curbs will help take 2.4 million people out of the workforce, but he’s betting AI can pick up the slack
By Tristan BoveFebruary 11, 2026
8 hours ago
hegseth
PoliticsAviation
Pete Hegseth’s plan to test anti-cartel lasers shut down the El Paso airport for a full day, sources say
By Seung Min Kim, Ben Finley, Mary Clare Jalonick, Morgan Lee, Josh Funk and The Associated PressFebruary 11, 2026
8 hours ago
jobs
EconomyJobs
Turns out the U.S. economy didn’t create half a million jobs last year. It was just 181,000
By Paul Wiseman and The Associated PressFebruary 11, 2026
8 hours ago
TrumpRx
CommentaryPharmaceutical Industry
TrumpRx is here and it helps, though a bit less than advertised
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Stephen Henriques, Ferron Chen, Asuka Koda and Vanessa McLennanFebruary 11, 2026
9 hours ago
Suburban homes
EconomyLabor
The 45-year decline of the middle class costs you $12,000 a year
By Jake AngeloFebruary 11, 2026
11 hours ago
Jerome Powell, standing behind the podium, looking out in front of him.
InvestingInflation
Wall Street’s top analyst sees something weird going on with gold and interest rates, and warns inflation risks are rewriting market logic
By Sasha RogelbergFebruary 11, 2026
12 hours ago

Most Popular

placeholder alt text
Economy
America borrowed $43.5 billion a week in the first four months of the fiscal year, with debt interest on track to be over $1 trillion for 2026
By Eleanor PringleFebruary 10, 2026
2 days ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
It turns out that Joe Biden really did crush Americans' dreams for the future. Just look at how the vibe changed 5 years ago
By Jake AngeloFebruary 10, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Commentary
Something big is happening in AI — and most people will be blindsided
By Matt ShumerFebruary 11, 2026
15 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Law
Law enforcement thought Nancy Guthrie's smart camera was disconnected, but Google Nest still had the tape
By Safiyah Riddle, Michael Liedtke and The Associated PressFebruary 11, 2026
18 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Law
Google's breakthrough in the Nancy Guthrie case is raising uncomfortable questions about how much it's watching you
By Ashley LutzFebruary 11, 2026
13 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
America’s national debt borrowing binge means interest payments will rocket to $2 trillion a year by 2036, CBO says
By Eleanor PringleFebruary 11, 2026
14 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.