Despite industry forecasts for a blockbuster resurgence in initial public offerings in the coming year, NYU Stern marketing professor and tech analyst Scott Galloway has issued a contrarian warning about the crown jewel of the AI boom. Speaking on a recent episode of Prof G Markets, Galloway suggested that OpenAI’s expected public listing, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, is far from a sure thing, citing eroding competitive advantages and a toxic shift in brand perception.
While discussing the potential for a record-breaking IPO market—headlined by rumored listings for SpaceX and OpenAI—Galloway offered a stark prediction regarding the ChatGPT creator. “I think OpenAI could get pulled,” Galloway stated, assigning a “nonzero probability” to the company withdrawing its IPO plans entirely. His skepticism stands in sharp contrast to reports that OpenAI is seeking additional funding at valuations as high as $830 billion.
According to Galloway, the primary threat to OpenAI’s public debut is a rapidly closing gap in the competitive landscape. He argues that OpenAI’s “sustainable advantage is really, really thin,” particularly when compared to deep-tech giants like SpaceX, which commands 80% to 90% of global launch capabilities. Galloway pointed to the surge in competitors, specifically noting that Google’s Gemini and various open-weight models are gaining significant traction. Furthermore, he observed that rival Anthropic is beating OpenAI in the enterprise sector by successfully branding itself as a safe, human-centric “partner” rather than an existential threat.
Beyond the technology, Galloway and cohost Ed Elson argued that OpenAI is suffering from a massive “vibe shift.” He contended that while associations with OpenAI were a “vibe to the upside” in 2025, sentiment has reversed to a “vibe to the downside.”
Galloway agreed, criticizing the company’s recent brand management, specifically citing the “proximity between Sam Altman and the president” as a liability that is causing investors and the public to “gag.” This skepticism appears to be bleeding into the broader market’s view of OpenAI’s primary backer, Microsoft.
Elson noted that Microsoft investors have begun to “call bullshit” on the tech giant’s growth narratives, expressing doubt that the projected revenue from their massive AI capital expenditures—specifically those tied to OpenAI—will actually materialize. Investors are increasingly wary of companies that have gotten “out in front of their skis” regarding valuations without showing clear returns on investment.
The podcast discussion also highlighted the perils retail investors face if the IPO does proceed. Galloway described the current IPO environment as a “rigged game” where institutions and insiders secure discounted access while retail investors are left to buy at inflated prices driven by “pent-up demand.” He predicted that if OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX do go public, the opening prices will be “completely irrational.”
Acadian Asset Management’s Owen Lamont recently told Fortune that he doesn’t see conditions in the stock market as bubbly for AI, but only because a giant IPO wave hasn’t materialized. Blackstone confirmed to the Financial Times that it is planning one of its largest IPO pipelines in history, while Goldman Sachs co-head of investment banking Kim Posnett told Fortune in a recent Q&A that the market is entering an IPO “megacycle” that will be defined by “unprecedented deal volume and IPO sizes.”
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.