• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'

2

Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won

3

A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump's playbook — 'We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows'

1

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'

2

Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won

3

A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump's playbook — 'We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows'
CommentaryLayoffs

The AI layoff wave is just beginning — and it’s by design

By
Kevin Oakes
Kevin Oakes
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Kevin Oakes
Kevin Oakes
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 17, 2025, 9:10 AM ET
Kevin Oakes is the founder and chief strategy officer at The Institute for Corporate Productivity (i4cp) and the author of Culture Renovation. 
layoffs
This is happening by design.Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Since early 2022, just before widespread AI-hype, U.S. job-openings as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have fallen from roughly 12.1 million to about 7.7 million, a decline of approximately 36%. Over the same period, the S&P 500’s total return (price plus dividends) is roughly 48%, reflecting strong equity markets. 

Recommended Video

Conventional wisdom would tell you a booming stock market should create more jobs, not fewer. But it’s hard to ignore that there are larger forces at play, and a potential harbinger of how companies are starting to view their workforces. According to a new report from the Institute for Corporate Productivity (i4cp), 2026 will be the year that large companies stop treating AI merely as a productivity tool and start wielding it as a strategic lever for workforce restructuring. 

That’s a far cry from the typical corporate talking points. How many times have we heard executives tout AI as a thought partner, a collaborator, a productivity accelerator? Or as a catalyst for upskilling and repurposing people? And yet, we’re already seeing evidence of this trend. In 2025 alone, UPS cut 48,000, Amazon eliminated 14,000 jobs, and Verizon announced plans to lay off 15,000 employees. The reason for all these cuts? While restructuring, the need for different skills, and business optimization are all frequently cited, increasingly AI is as well. In fact, a World Economic Forum survey found 41% of companies worldwide expect to reduce their workforces over the next five years because of the rise of AI. Reduction doesn’t just mean layoffs; AI is also being used as a reason hiring has slowed in many companies. 

Of course, not all layoffs or hiring slowdowns will be AI-driven. Some of these changes reflect broader economic “cooling” after the post-COVID hiring boom. Other layoffs are designed to instill more agility in workforces, with some prominent CEOs such as Amazon’s Andy Jassy saying as much. But workers should adjust their expectations and recognize that some companies aren’t fretting about whether or not their employees can adapt to AI. Instead they’re using layoffs as a way to accelerate that adaption.   

What Comes Next 

Using AI-driven layoffs as a strategic lever dovetails with three other trends i4cp sees emerging or strengthening in 2026. The first is the need for organizations to be more skills-based. i4cp research shows that companies with high “skills readiness,” or the confidence that their workforce has the skills needed for the next three years, are 12 times more likely to offer upskilling to employees. They are also six times more likely to have cataloged the skills and capabilities of their workforces, and are six times more likely to determine which tasks are best performed by humans versus AI, and vice versa. 

For decades companies have asked “How many employees do we need?” Instead, high-performing organizations are increasingly asking, “What work needs to be done and who (or what) has the capabilities to do it?” Already, companies like Target and Dow are using custom GPT tools and AI-powered interview guides to help managers connect skills data to business decisions in real time. The path is clear: skills will be the shared language connecting business strategy, tech and talent. 

In addition to upskilling efforts, i4cp also expects that by the end of 2026, it won’t be uncommon for some professionals to have a personal AI “work twin,” or a digital counterpart trained on their workflows, communication styles and task patterns. While this evolution won’t happen overnight and still seems somewhat in the realm of science fiction, high-performing companies are already realizing that AI isn’t just a tool, but a teammate. Such collaboration will bring new management concerns, such as, “When an employee leaves, does the twin remain?” Or “How do we measure productivity when part of the workforce never sleeps?”

This leap in digital work twins will require new governance, new leadership development programs and new mindsets. Best-in-class companies will treat the AI-human relationship as a trust partnership, experimenting with what work is best suited for AI agents versus humans. While twins obviously can be a significant productivity multiplier, companies will need to ensure that doesn’t happen at the expense of organizational culture. 

All of this shifting also means that leading companies will have more fluid, modular workforces, with systems in place that can match emerging work needs with available capabilities. This will require managers and HR leaders to continuously shape and redeploy teams (of both humans and digital contributors), akin to managing a supply chain rather than a static roster. 

The organizations that thrive next year and beyond will embrace fluid workforces, treat skills as the company operating system, and work with AI as a trusted collaborator. The defining factor for success will ultimately be which firms navigate this transformation without sacrificing the human elements that ultimately drive growth and innovation. 

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

About the Author
By Kevin Oakes
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

David Risher
CommentaryRide-Hailing
Lyft CEO: we’re setting a multi-sensor safety standard for autonomous rides
By David RisherJune 22, 2026
2 hours ago
s
CommentaryData centers
Saxby Chambliss: America can’t win the AI race without more plumbers and electricians
By Saxby ChamblissJune 22, 2026
4 hours ago
astronaut
Commentaryspace
NASA just named an all-male crew for ‘Artemis III’: what’s a woman to do?
By Savanah F.S. Bray, PhDJune 22, 2026
5 hours ago
zeke
CommentaryFather's Day
Ezekiel Emanuel: My father lived into his 90s. He understood something many successful men miss
By Ezekiel J. EmanuelJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
Tenzin Seldon is the founder and managing partner of Pulse Fund,
CommentaryGLP-1s
Tenzin Seldon: The GLP-1 boom is the biggest climate story no one is pricing in
By Tenzin SeldonJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
Julia Bartak
CommentaryGen Z
Edward Jones advisor: Gen-Z doesn’t want an office happy hour. They want financial security
By Julia BartakJune 21, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won
Success
Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won
By Emma BurleighJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump's playbook — 'We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows'
Economy
A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump's playbook — 'We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows'
By Jason MaJune 20, 2026
2 days ago
NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'
Success
NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'
By Preston ForeJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
Health
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
By Ali Swenson, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
2 days ago
Tenzin Seldon: The GLP-1 boom is the biggest climate story no one is pricing in
Commentary
Tenzin Seldon: The GLP-1 boom is the biggest climate story no one is pricing in
By Tenzin SeldonJune 21, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.