Wall Street was stunned by Vice President JD Vance’s estimate of TikTok’s valuation, as he put it well below what other top social media companies are worth.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, clearing the way for a deal to put TikTok in U.S. hands following a divestiture by its Chinese parent, ByteDance. That avoids a total shutdown of the app in the U.S. that was required by law unless TikTok shed its China-based owner.
Speaking as the president signed the executive order in the Oval Office, Vance pegged TikTok’s worth at $14 billion—equal to that of Snapchat parent Snap. While he acknowledged that TikTok’s buyers will ultimately determine the app’s value, his number was still shocking to some.
“This is crazy. I mean, the number’s got to be wrong. It doesn’t make any sense,” Brent Thill, senior technology analyst at Jefferies, told CNBC on Thursday.
Ashwin Binwani, founder of Alpha Binwani Capital, told Bloomberg Vance’s $14 billion assessment is only one-third of TikTok’s actual value.
“By every major financial metric and peer comparison, this price tag looks dramatically misaligned with reality,” he said.
Earlier this year, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put TikTok’s worth at “well north of $100 billion” with the algorithm, and up to $200 billion in a “best-case scenario.” Without the algorithm, he put it at $40 billion to $50 billion.
Vance said the algorithm will be “under the control of American investors,” adding that more details would be forthcoming. Reports earlier this week said Oracle will re-create TikTok’s algorithm and provide a new U.S. version while also ensuring security for users’ data.
Thill pointed out that social media giant Meta is worth nearly $2 trillion. Instagram alone has 3 billion global monthly active users, and Snapchat has more than 900 million. Meanwhile, TikTok has about 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion users around the world, with 170 million in the U.S. alone.
“So the only way you could read into that is, are they getting themselves a good deal, and they’re going to mark it up, and it’s going to be a huge windfall? But it makes zero sense from what I can see,” Thill said.
The U.S. ownership structure is still being finalized, but Trump said Oracle and its cofounder Larry Ellison would play a “big” role in managing the app, while conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch and computer billionaire Michael Dell would sit on the board. Trump hinted that three more “blue-chip” backers are also part of the ownership group.
While Trump joked about TikTok’s algorithm favoring MAGA-related content, he said, “Everyone’s going to be treated fairly.” Vance also stressed that business would drive the app’s content decisions.
“We want the business to make decisions about content based on the interest of the business and based on the interest of the users, and that’s what we think will happen,” he said.
Thill said TikTok should be able to draw more advertisers to the app now that a deal has been struck to keep it operating in the U.S. and the “drama is over.”
Meta’s Instagram still dominates as far as monetizing its platform, but Thill said there’s room for TikTok, though it’s unclear whether it will take market share from TV or other social media apps.
“There’s three platforms really that most are using: Meta, TikTok, and Snap,” he added. “And I think ultimately we’ve seen this. I think there is room for TikTok and monetization. Snap just hasn’t been able to do it, and it’s been a broken record for a while.”
