It’s been two years and nine months since OpenAI’s ChatGPT launched.
What was once dismissed as a chatbot kicked off an AI boom of epic proportions and—as billions have flowed into AI startups of all kinds—OpenAI has become the most valuable startup ever, less than a month ago hitting a $500 billion valuation.
This week, at Fortune Brainstorm Tech, I brought my most pressing questions to GV CEO and managing partner David Krane and Greycroft cofounder and managing partner Dana Settle. Krane and Settle are investors, of course—but they’re also stewards of key VC institutions, at a time when both venture capital and startups are in flux. Where is the AI boom right now?
“No question: we’re early,” said Krane. “Third pitch, top of the second inning, driving at Formula One speeds.” He added: “This is a pitch clock that we’ve never seen before. This game is moving incredibly quickly, for better and for worse.”
Settle also thinks it’s still exceptionally early.
“It’s absolutely a long cycle, and we’re at the very, very, very beginning,” said Settle, adding: “I’m always thinking about the metaphor, back to Internet days. And I don’t know, maybe AOL? I think that’s where we are, but it’s moving so much faster.”
This AI-fueled speed raises questions, both said, about the most productive places to focus. As Krane put it: “With all this speed, with this abundance of capital deployment, are we directing people, directing these financial resources at the most important problems and the biggest opportunities?” Both Settle and Krane have seen AI startups (like OpenEvidence) gaining traction in healthcare, while Krane emphasized law and Settle’s seen applications in manufacturing and defense.
One thing that’s clear, though, is that some startup norms of the last decade are shifting. Small teams, they said, are back.
“We are having a bit of a renaissance of the power of small teams,” said Krane, who was employee number 84 at Google. “I remember looking at teams across the Valley with hundreds of employees working on a fairly narrowly-defined problem and not succeeding. And then in early Google, there were two or three of the right researchers and engineers working on the exact same problem. Time and again, Google would find success.”
It’s a bit of a Back to The Future moment.
“At the beginning of the venture capital world, it was two people in a garage,” said Settle. “So, maybe we’re just back to that. The cost to start a company went from $10 million to $100,000 overnight.”
That said, there are inevitably and completely new dynamics playing out. I closed by asking if Krane and Settle: Will we see a trillion-dollar startup? Neither hesitated, agreeing immediately, “absolutely.”
See you Monday,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.
Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.
Venture Deals
- Diana Health, a New York City-based company that helps companies develop women’s health programs, raised $55 million in Series C funding. HealthQuest Capital led the round and was joined by Norwest, .406 Ventures, LRVHealth, and AlleyCorp.
- Brain Co., a San Francisco-based AI platform for global institutions, raised $30 million in Series A funding. Elad Gil and Affinity Partners led the round and were joined by others.
- Penguin Ai, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based healthcare AI company, raised $29.7 million in funding from Greycroft, UPMC Enterprises, SemperVirens, Snowflake Ventures, Watershed Ventures, and others.
- Goodpath, a Boston, Mass.-based virtual care provider for patients with chronic conditions, raised $18 million in Series A funding. MassMutual Ventures led the round and was joined by Healthy Ventures and others.
- Red Access, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based cybersecurity platform for organizations, raised $17 million in Series A funding. Norwest led the round and was joined by Ten Eleven Ventures, SentinelOne’s S Ventures, Elron Ventures, and Singtel Innov8.
- Aegis, a New York City-based cybersecurity company, raised $13 million in seed funding. Accel and Foundation Capital led the round.
- ONEiO, a Helsinki, Finland-based enterprise IT integration platform, raised €8 million ($9.4 million) in funding. Bocap led the round and was joined by Fairpoint Capital.
- Lōvu Health, a Cupertino, Calif.-based digital maternal health platform, raised $8 million in Series A funding. SJF Ventures led the round and was joined by Rogue Women’s Fund, Symphonic Capital, Emmeline Ventures, Majella Ventures, and others.
- Quack, a San Francisco-based agentic AI platform for customer support, raised $7 million in seed funding. Hanaco Ventures and Storytime Capital led the round and was joined by Fusion VC, Sayvon Ventures, and others.
Private Equity
- TPG agreed to acquire the Proficy business of GE Vernova, a Cambridge, Mass.-based energy company, for $600 million.
- Magnetar invested $200 million in Torus, a South Salt Lake, Utah-based developer of energy storage, management, and generation products. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Lincoln International agreed to acquire MarshBerry, a Woodmere, Ohio-based investment bank and consulting firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Platinum Equity agreed to acquire XD Connects, a Rijswijk, The Netherlands-based designer and supplier of corporate gifts and branded merchandise. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Visma, backed by Hg, acquired Alavie, a Desio, Italy-based provider of regulatory compliance software solutions for accounting offices and professional service firms. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Other
- Veritas Capital, a New York City-based private equity firm, raised $14.4 billion for their ninth fund focused on companies providing tech products and services to government and companies.
People
- CenterOak Partners, a Dallas, Texas-based private equity firm, hired Rich Reuter as managing director and Chris Golz as chief financial officer.