- Nvidia is not including the Chinese market in its financial forecasts as a result of strict export controls hampering business with the country, CEO Jensen Huang told CNN on Thursday. Huang has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration’s export restrictions as limiting U.S. manufacturing and growth opportunities. Export controls may loosen as a result of a trade deal with China in exchange for greater access to rare earths.
AI chipmaker Nvidia will no longer include Chinese business in its financial forecasts after President Donald Trump’s efforts to tighten export controls to China.
CEO Jensen Huang told CNN on Thursday that a trade deal between the U.S. and China would be “a great bonus,” but he wasn’t counting on that outcome.
“I’ve told all of our investors and shareholders that, going forward, our forecasts will not include the China market,” he said.
The Department of Commerce last month initiated a series of export controls that would revoke a Biden-era “diffusion” rule capping the number of chips other countries are able to buy, while also “warning the public about the potential consequences of allowing U.S. AI chips to be used for training and interference of Chinese AI models.” Weeks later, the administration reportedly restricted chip design software companies like Synopsys and Siemens from selling to China without a U.S. government license, according to Bloomberg.
While Huang touted the removal of the “diffusion” rule as helping to bolster U.S. manufacturing, he’s concerned the crackdown on trade with China will have the opposite effect. The export controls on China have had a tangible impact on Nvidia, which, despite reporting a blockbuster 69% increase in quarterly revenue, missed out on $2.5 billion in revenue from being unable to ship its H20 chips to China, the company said. Nvidia’s H20 chips, less powerful than their Blackwell counterparts, were designed specifically to comply with U.S. export controls on the country and resulted in a $4.5 billion charge due to excess inventory, still less than the $5.5 billion expected.
Huang warned more broadly of the dangers of export controls. He doubled down on previous comments that rather than cutting China off from a burgeoning resource in U.S. semiconductor chips, the restrictions are actually spurring the country to jump-start its own development efforts.
“The goals of the export controls are not being achieved,” Huang told CNN. “Whatever those goals are that were being discussed initially, [they] are apparently not working. And so I think, with all export controls, the goals have to be well-articulated and tested over time.”
The Department of Commerce did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment. Nvidia declined to comment beyond Huang’s remarks.
The future of export controls
While Huang won’t want to hand Nvidia’s business in China to Huawei “on a silver platter,” according to Wedbush managing director Dan Ives, the CEO is also being strategic with investors by cutting China from Nvidia’s profit and revenue forecasts.
“He’s 10% politician, 90% CEO,” Ives told Fortune. “He needs to be cautious on their financial guidance, given the China variable.”
Ives, however, agreed with Huang that the export controls present a problem to the entire U.S. industry, arguing they would give an opportunity for China to catch up with U.S. development progress. Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei told state media on Tuesday the China-produced chips are one generation behind Nvidia’s, but the company is finding workarounds to improve performance.
“This is a work in progress,” Ives said. “For the first time in 30 years, the U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech. You don’t want to give China the opportunity to leapfrog the U.S. again.”
There’s a big asterisk next to the state of export controls, however, as the U.S. and China finalize a trade framework after officials met in London earlier this week. As part of the trade deal, China may consider speeding up issuing rare-earths export licenses in exchange for lifted restrictions on technology to make semiconductor chips.
“It does seem like some of the U.S. controls introduced in recent weeks, including on software for designing semiconductors, will be relaxed as part of the deal,” Geoffrey Gertz, a Center for a New American Security fellow and former National Security Council official, said in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday.
“The key point is that [the U.S. government] has now opened the door to negotiating away export controls, and so [China] (and others) will keep on pushing on this point,” he added.
