- Consumer staple stocks tend to perform well in a recession as customers continue to buy essentials. While Netflix could see its subscriber numbers drop during a downturn, some bulls suggest the streaming service might be one of the last things people are willing to give up when their wallets get lighter.
President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff rollout has wreaked havoc on the stock market, but an investor all in on Netflix might not have noticed. While the benchmark S&P 500 index has fallen over 10% this year, Netflix shares have risen more than 8% in that span, even after the stock pared its gains when the broader market went into free fall earlier this month.
One obvious reason the stock has fared well: Tariffs on goods don’t directly impact a streaming service. And while subscriptions could take a hit during a recession, the company’s dominance in a notoriously competitive industry has some analysts considering whether Netflix might be Silicon Valley’s version of Johnson & Johnson—a consumer staple that can perform well even when its customers’ wallets get much lighter.
Or, as Edward Jones senior analyst Dave Heger put it, Netflix might occupy the space cable TV held before the advent of cord cutting. While consumers may cut back on going to restaurants, movie theaters, or concerts when times get tough, he said, they tend to keep watching TV.
“I think Netflix may have, kind of, that resilience in a downturn,” he said.
As recession fears mount on Wall Street, Netflix management is still setting ambitious long-term goals. The company aims to more than double its market capitalization to $1 trillion by 2030, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, and join a club currently occupied by just eight companies around the world. To get there, Netflix believes it can double its revenue and triple its operating income in just under five years.
Those are lofty goals, Heger said. Still, stockholders have been richly rewarded for betting on the company, with the value of their holdings increasing nearly 30% year over year in the past decade, compared with annualized gains of about 10% for the S&P in that span.
“You can’t really underestimate them if you look at how much of a disrupter they’ve been in the industry,” Heger said of Netflix management, “and the amount of success the company has had so far.”
Tariff uncertainty has made its mark on earnings season, with many companies pulling or significantly downgrading their forward guidance. United Airlines even offered two different sets of benchmarks for the rest of the year depending on whether the U.S. economy either weakens but remains stable or enters a full-on recession.
However, if Netflix can affirm or raise its guidance when it releases earnings after market close Thursday, it could distinguish itself from companies struggling to deal with not just tariffs but also relatively high interest rates, said Brian Mulberry, a director and client-portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management. He made the comparison to Johnson & Johnson.
“This is a key moment for the management team to show strength,” he said.
Could a trade war help Netflix?
Heger said he wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if management decides to strike a cautious tone, but tariffs are likely not the looming problem for Netflix they are for companies in many other industries. As with online advertising for Amazon and Meta, it seems as if Netflix’s revenue streams should remain unaffected for now.
One thing that could change that is if countries, particularly in the European Union, raise taxes on digital services to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, Heger said. While America is a net exporter in this category, the levies have been a target of Trump’s ire since his first term.
Netflix might indirectly benefit, however, from an apparent flight of capital out of the U.S. as the dollar weakens, Heger said. The dollar’s strength before the tariff upheaval has weighed on revenue from abroad, where the company is finding most of its new subscribers.
Meanwhile, the strength of Netflix’s foreign-language programming is a major reason the company has a “pretty good recipe” for continuing to grow revenue in an economic slowdown, Mulberry said. That’s what happened during the initial economic shock at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, he added, though people were admittedly stuck at home.
“Will consumers still pay their subscriptions and binge-watch their shows?” Mulberry said. “That’s going to be, I think, the most important question that we don’t have the answer to.”
Bulls believe Netflix is one of the last things consumers would be willing to give up.
