- Given the destiny-determining questions that are plaguing the U.S. economy, United Airlines is planning for multiple operating environments, the company announced on Tuesday. In one scenario, the airline sees consistent customer bookings even as the economy weakens. In the other, the U.S. stumbles headlong into a recession. It may be an approach other companies adopt given the wild swings roiling the markets.
United Airlines is giving you options.
The $22 billion airline on Tuesday offered up what it called a “bimodal” set of expectations with its guidance benchmark based on two very different macroeconomic views because “a single consensus no longer exists,” United told investors.
“Either the U.S. economy will remain weaker but stable, or the U.S. may enter into a recession,” United announced.
In the recessionary scenario, the company modeled a five percentage point reduction in total operating revenue from the second to the fourth quarters, which it says would equate to $4.50 in adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) if there was no break from fuel prices. The revenue reduction would mean significantly lower full year adjusted diluted EPS of $7 to $9.
On the other hand, the stable scenario is a lot rosier with higher full year EPS of $11.50 to $13.50. United said it is monitoring its bookings like a hawk, and so far trends have been stable. If things continue apace, the company expects to be within its initial guidance range of $11.50 to $13.50. United CEO Scott Kirby and chief financial officer Michael Leskinen will discuss the business outlook with investors during its quarterly earnings call on Wednesday.
This tactic was a novel one for market watchers.
In a post on X, economist and former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian said the move by United illustrates the uncertainty a lot of companies feel at the moment.
“In addition to uncertainty, this highlights the importance for companies (and others) to think in terms of multiple scenarios for internal planning and not just stick to the usual normal distribution (i.e., a highly likely outcome and thin tails),” the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge wrote.
The market has been on a will-he, won’t-he roller coaster ride since President Trump announced a bevy of new import duties on Liberation Day earlier this month. The announcement, which was expected, triggered an extreme market selloff because the scale and scope of Trump’s announced tariffs was beyond what had already been priced in.
The subsequent weeks have been chaotic and riddled with commentary from experts about what might happen next, even as new developments continue to confound the markets on a near-hourly basis.
Former Federal Reserve chair and secretary of the U.S. Treasury Janet Yellen said the U.S. “would be lucky to skirt a recession.”
Billionaire Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said the combination of Trump’s tariffs, rising debt, and geopolitical forces could crumble the U.S “monetary order.”
“Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well,” Dalio said on NBC’s Meet the Press.
“A recession is two negative quarters of GDO and whether it goes there? We always have those things. We have something that’s much more profound, we have a breaking down of the monetary order—we are going to change the monetary order because we cannot send the amounts of money.”
Despite the uncertainty on the horizon ahead, United reported a first-quarter profit and record revenues of $13.2 billion, the company announced on Tuesday, ahead of its scheduled quarterly briefing with investors. Travel reservations have stayed steady, according to United, with premium cabins up 17% and international flights up 5% year-over-year.
“United believes our proven ability to win brand-loyal customers is a competitive advantage and will make United resilient in any economic environment,” the company told investors.
