- Inflation heated up in the month that Donald Trump took office, but the president “had nothing to do with it,” he said. Still, economists are worried about the months ahead.
President Donald Trump campaigned and won on a promise to lower Americans’ cost of living. But inflation is heating up, and the president denies he has anything to do with it.
Trump and right-hand man Elon Musk sat down for an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity that aired Tuesday night, in which the two billionaires spoke about their relationship, the $10 million settlement Musk’s social media platform paid Trump, and inflation.
At one point, when Musk claimed Trump inherited a $2 trillion deficit from the prior administration, the president agreed, adding, unprompted: “And inflation is back. I’m only here for two and a half weeks.”
“I had nothing to do with it,” Trump continued. “They spent money like nobody has ever spent.”
After gradually falling for the second half of this year, inflation heated up last month, rising at a 3% annual rate, according to government data. The Consumer Price Index in January leaped 0.5% from December, the fastest monthly increase in a year and a half, spurred by a surge in the price of eggs, rising gas prices, and still-high housing costs.
We’re a ways away from June 2022 when inflation came in around 9%. But on the other hand, we’re still not very close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for more caution with interest rate cuts ahead, and the latest, hot, inflation data suggests that borrowing costs could stay high longer, regardless of Trump’s petition for lower interest rates.
To be clear, Biden was president part of January, and so was Trump. Economists have warned that Trump’s proposed policies, including mass deportation and tariffs, could be inflationary, but January is likely too soon to cast blame.
January’s “rise in prices is likely unrelated to any tariff activity from the White House,” senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management Charlie Ripley said at the time.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said that while the sudden hot inflation has several causes, “the anticipation of the president’s economic policies, as they have resulted in higher inflation expectations,” could be one driver.
“Both global investors and American consumers are discounting higher inflation dead ahead,” Zandi said. He noted that expectations of inflation “have been rising since September, when Trump’s lead in the election polls and betting markets gained momentum. Consumer expectations of inflation in the coming year have increased even more sharply recently, according to the University of Michigan’s survey.” The anticipation of higher inflation might be affecting actual inflation, Zandi explained, as consumers who expect prices to go up tend to purchase more in the present, driving prices higher.
Economists agree that presidents’ influence on prices is fairly limited. But that doesn’t stop politicians from trying to cast blame—or take credit. Trump blamed his predecessor for January’s figures, writing, “BIDEN INFLATION UP!” on his social media platform.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to bring prices down on “day one” in office, before seemingly backtracking and telling Time magazine, “it’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard.”
