The Donald Trump-led red wave was good for Y’ALL.
That’s the ticker of the exchange-traded fund named God Bless America, which was created for “God-fearing, flag-waving conservatives.” The ETF returned 32.9% this year, handily beating the S&P 500’s 26%. The fund’s biggest holding is Tesla Inc., run by Elon Musk, who backed Trump’s election bid.
Not all was lost for the more liberal crowd. A fund that tracks securities bought and sold by Democratic congress members and their spouses — ticker NANC, named after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — advanced 28.6% this year as of Friday. By comparison, a Republican version of the fund — ticker KRUZ, a nod to Texas Senator Ted Cruz — returned 14.7%.
Of eight politically-themed ETFs tracked by Bloomberg, YALL and NANC are two of the three funds that are beating the S&P 500 this year.
Despite the polarization in America, politically-focused funds have failed to amass large amounts of money.
While “anti-woke” crusader Vivek Ramaswamy got backing from billionaires for his funds, most others haven’t grown beyond $300 million in assets. The rule of thumb is that institutional investors often avoid funds with less than $300 million. 2nd Vote Advisers liquidated its two conservative-themed ETFs last year after they failed to gain traction.
Read more: Red/Blue America, Hard Lessons About the Color of Money
The problem with thematic ETFs is they frequently open when the investment idea is at or near its peak, said Itzhak Ben-David, a professor at the Ohio State University Fisher College of Business and a researcher at the National Bureau of Economic Research. They also usually underperform, he said, pointing to his research that shows specialized ETFs tend to trail market benchmarks by about 30% over five years.
“It’s human behavior. It was true in 1929 (just before the Great Depression) and it’s true today,” Ben-David said. “If you read something in the news or see it on TV, you’re probably not the first to notice it. Maybe you’re among the last ones and the price is already reflecting this information.”
Read more: Market Frenzy Fuels $1 Trillion ETF Rush to Break Annual Records
The biggest factor that determines the success of any ETF is good marketing, said Arthur Laffer Jr., president of Laffer Investments who was an adviser of the 2nd Vote ETFs that closed.
Politically-focused funds are “designed to polarize,” he said. “That’s their shtick,” but to attract buyers, they have to generate excess returns or show that they can reduce investment risks.
Despite all these challenges, a conservative-leaning ETF managed by the recently set up Azoria Partners plans to open in March.
