Investors are expecting the wealth of Americans to rise under both a Harris or Trump presidency—but specify different asset classes will perform better depending on who is in the Oval Office.
The survey carried out by Bloomberg found outlooks for the stock market is bright. Under a Harris presidency 45% of investors believed the market would either continue or accelerate its 2% monthly gains so far this year.
Under a Trump presidency they believed the markets would fair even better, with 38% of respondents saying they’d expect to see an acceleration in market growth and 21% expecting returns to stay the same.
This rosy outlook bodes well for the American public, with approximately 60% of households owning—directly or indirectly—publicly-traded shares according to Pew Research.
Different asset classes for each candidate
But stocks aren’t the only area where Americans could see a boost to their wealth. The survey of 350 respondents made up of economists, portfolio managers and investors believe certain asset classes will boom under either candidate.
A Democratic administration would bode better for assets like housing, the respondents believe.
The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed term mortgage by the end of a Harris term was estimated to sit at 5.5%, while that would rise to 5.9% under Trump.
Under a Republican commander-in-chief, respondents to the MLIV Pulse survey expect Bitcoin and gold to rally.
On gold—seen as something of a haven of an investment asset—57% of respondents expect to see a rally with 43% bracing for a decline in the event of a Trump win.
Under Harris, 45% expect to see a continue to the rally—gold is up 5.6% in the past month—while 55% are expecting the asset to post a decline.
Likewise Bitcoin—currently sitting at around $72,000—is expected to hit a new record above $80,000 in the case of a Trump win according to a median estimate of those surveyed.
In a Harris win investors estimate a drop in price to around $65,000 by the end of the year.
This outlook is perhaps not surprising as Trump himself is an investor in the cryptocurrency universe.
Despite having previously labelled bitcoin as “not money” and criticized it as “highly volatile and based on thin air” the former president has now launched his own cryptocurrency project, as well as directly allowing supporters to back his campaign in cryptocurrency.
Don’t mix politics and portfolios
While pollsters might be keen to predict a win for red or blue, nobody can really predict who will be stepping into the White House next month.
And this is a fact experts are reiterating so close to the election: Don’t mix your portfolio with politics.
Kurt Reiman, co-lead of UBS global wealth management’s ElectionWatch, wrote in a note to clients this morning: “This year’s often dramatic twists and turns in the campaign, as well as the contrast in policy proposals from the two candidates, add weight to the event on 5 November.
“Yet we have stressed one very important point all along: do not mix politics with your portfolio. This advice has so far proven to be sound despite the palpable angst over the election result: A global 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has returned an impressive 11% year to date.”
And while some volatility—particularly in the foreign exchange—is to be expected, analysts are not expecting it to last.
Goldman Sachs’s Michael Cahill, Lexi Kanter and Alec Phillips wrote yesterday in a note seen by Fortune that markets will be likely to gauge the winner of the race before an official victory is declared.
They added: “FX market volatility generally peaks in the first few hours after polls close on the East Coast and stays somewhat elevated during the London morning before settling back to normal by the start of New York trading.
“While we cannot rule out the possibility of a very tight result and prolonged period of uncertainty, most likely the market will be able to gauge the likely presidential winner on election night or shortly thereafter, even if there are a few ‘head fakes’ in the first few hours and media sources take longer to make their call—just like last time.”
