Saudi Arabia will host the biggest names in finance and technology this coming week in a test of investor appetite for the kingdom’s ambitions of transforming itself into a global hub at a time of widening regional conflict.
International executives will have to contend with a region rocked by geopolitical tensions, with the threat of further military confrontation between Israel and Iran at the highest levels in decades. And they will land in a country that is increasingly facing up to the fact that even its vast oil wealth has limits.
But those arriving at the Future Investment Initiative – often dubbed Davos in the desert – seem undeterred, sensing an opportunity to plug into Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s trillion-dollar Vision 2030 economic remake. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon, Citigroup Inc.’s Jane Fraser and BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink have become regulars at the Riyadh summit and are set to return this year.
Reflecting Saudi Arabia’s focus on technology and artificial intelligence, they’ll be joined by prominent names in those industries. Alphabet Inc. President Ruth Porat and TikTok Inc. Chief Executive Officer Shou Chew are set to speak at the summit for the first time. Benjamin Horowitz, tech entrepreneur and co-founder of venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz, is also making an appearance.
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Wall Street and Silicon Valley have increasingly turned to the oil-rich Middle East as liquidity gets tighter in other parts of the world, especially China. Saudi Arabia itself commands nearly $1 trillion in sovereign wealth, though the Crown Prince wants titans of industry to stop deploying that money overseas and instead help support his domestic ambitions.
Yet the backdrop is one of increasing uncertainty.
Saudi foreign policy has recently focused on lowering regional tensions in the hope that a more stable region will bring in foreign capital and technological know-how. But events of the past year have served as a reminder of how unstable the region can be.
“The impact of regional instability on the prospects for foreign investment is completely negative, with the possible exception of the defense industry,” said Gregory Gause, Professor of International Affairs at Texas A&M University. Capital is “not attracted to conflict regions, even if the country is not an immediate participant in the conflict.”
To be sure, Saudi Arabia is still pushing ahead with its big development plans. Deals worth more than $28 billion are likely to be announced over the next week by executives from around the world, according to Richard Attias, CEO of the FII Institute.
Some of these will focus on AI, including potentially a new fund with Andreessen Horowitz that could grow to as large as $40 billion. The kingdom is also expected to announce a new company that will invest at least $10 billion in making Saudi Arabia a top global producer of hydrogen — a low carbon fuel that could be key to the world’s transition away from burning fossil fuels.
Two exchange-traded funds will make their trading debuts in Riyadh, giving Saudi investors access to Hong Kong stocks — a reflection of the kingdom’s growing ties with China as it looks to boost investment flows with its biggest trading partner. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan, and the Commissioner for the Belt and Road, Nicholas Ho, will speak at FII as some of the highest profile speakers from Asia.
Still, the regional conflict is undoubtedly weighing on global investor sentiment in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the biggest Gulf economy, is feeling some of that.
The number of actively-managed emerging market funds with Saudi exposure had been rising sharply until earlier this year, but stalled at around 56% as tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, according to Copley Fund Research. The data show that the number of funds invested in the Saudi stock market fell slightly between March and September this year and that the country is the third-biggest underweight after Taiwan and India.
Coupled with that, Crown Prince Mohammed has had to come to terms with the limits of even Saudi Arabia’s vast financial resources to pay for his ambitions. The government, which is forecasting deficits out to at least 2027, has said some projects will be need to be delayed.
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At the same time, the Public Investment Fund, the kingdom’s powerful sovereign fund that the de-facto ruler chairs, is becoming a tougher place for foreign firms to get money out of. An increased focus on domestic projects like the $1.5 trillion Neom has global asset managers fretting that the PIF will have less cash to spend abroad.
“The FII has always been designed as a mechanism for investment into Saudi, however in reality it has been an opportunity for foreign execs to extract financing from the Kingdom,” said Zaid Belbagi, managing partner of political risk consultancy Hardcastle Advisory. “Sold-out hotels at $500-1000 per night are indicative of sustained international interest.”
The organizers of the Riyadh jamboree remain confident, and about 7,000 people have registered to attend this year’s event. That’s higher than the numbers for last year’s summit, which took place days after the current conflict in the region started.
Investors are coming “despite what is happening in the world,” FII Institute’s Attias said. “The show must go on.”
