Wall Street has ramped up forecasts on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates after the disappointing July jobs report raised fears of a recession, and a JPMorgan economist said there’s even an argument to be made for an unscheduled cut.
Policymakers won’t meet again until Sept. 17 and 18, giving investors a whole month and a half to worry about the economy and markets, after the central bank kept rates steady at its last meeting on Wednesday.
To be sure, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely drop more hints about rate cuts at the Jackson Hole conference later this month. And the Fed has made rate moves between meetings in the past, though that has typically come during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the financial crash in 2008.
“With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to say the Fed should have cut this week,” wrote Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, in a note on Friday. “It’s also easy to say they will cut soon. How soon and how much are harder questions.”
Even if the weakness in the job market levels off later, the Fed would still appear to be “offsides” by 100 basis points or more, he added.
As a result, Feroli expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting and again at the November meeting, then cut by 25 points at each subsequent meeting.
But he could also see a scenario where Powell and company do something even more aggressive.
“From a risk management perspective we think there’s a strong case to act before September 18th,” Feroli wrote. “But perhaps Powell doesn’t want to add more noise to what has already been an event-filled summer.”
Indeed, the twists and turns in the U.S. election season alone have whipsawed markets. After the “Trump trade” was ascendant following the first presidential debate and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, it quickly lost momentum after Vice President Kamala Harris took Joe Biden’s place at the top of the Democratic ticket.
And an emergency rate cut between Fed meetings could even stir up panic rather than calm fears as it might signal a drastic worsening in sentiment among central bankers, who have long maintained they are in no rush to loosen monetary policy.
For its part, JPMorgan now sees the Fed eventually slashing the benchmark rate to around 3%, meaning rate cuts would extend into the third quarter of 2025 and lop off more than 200 basis points from the current rate of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Others on Wall Street have called for investors not to overreact to the sudden weakening in jobs. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, told Fortune on Friday that she’s not concerned right now that the U.S. is in a recession.
Even though her namesake rule was triggered by the latest data, which saw the unemployment rate climb to 4.3%, she noted that household income is still growing while consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.
Still, recent trends in the labor market have looked weak at best, said Sahm, who is now chief economist at investment firm New Century Advisors.
“It’s been very accurate over time, so that shouldn’t be dismissed,” she added, noting that “recessions can build slowly, and then come quickly.”
Similarly, Morningstar chief U.S. economist Preston Caldwell said in a note Friday that markets overreacted to the payroll report, but cautioned that it’s still bearish news. And if the data had been available during this past Fed meeting, policymakers would have cut rates, he said.
“Once the unemployment rate gets moving upward, it’s very likely to continue rising,” Caldwell wrote. “Rising unemployment is part of a vicious process of economic contraction. People being unemployed leads to less spending, which causes firms to cut back and unemployment to increase more.”
