Usually you make some money when you sell your home. It’s a different story for some San Francisco sellers. Almost one in five homes sold in the city during the three months ending Feb. 29 sold at a loss, according to Redfin.
That’s better than the three months ending Jan. 31, an 11-year high for homes sold at a loss in San Francisco, but only slightly. San Francisco also has the highest share of homes sold for less than their purchase price than any other metropolitan area—and quadruple the national figure.
And these sellers are losing big. “In San Francisco, the typical homeowner who sold at a loss parted with their home for $155,500 less than they bought it for, the largest dollar loss of any major metro,” Redfin’s data journalist and senior economist wrote in a new analysis. “Nationwide, the median loss was $39,912.”
It might sound crazy because home prices are near all-time highs, but not everywhere. In San Francisco, median home sale prices peaked in April 2022, two or so years into the pandemic-fueled housing boom. But they have plunged 15% or $250,000 since then, as of February, according to Redfin. The average home value in the city is down almost 4% in the past year alone, per Zillow.
“The typical person who bought in San Francisco at nearly any point in 2021 or 2022, when the housing market was red hot due to ultra-low mortgage rates, would have taken a loss if they sold during the first few months of this year,” the analysis read.
There’s more to it than the loss of historically low mortgage rates, which by the way hit 7.29% today. San Francisco fell into what a lot of people called an urban doom loop, and to put it simply, the city’s downtown changed in the post-pandemic world. San Francisco is considered one of the “worst-hit metros” in terms of falling office values, by Capital Economics’ rhetoric. Office values in the city could fall 60% if Capital Economics’ prediction is correct.
“The issues facing San Francisco probably require little introduction,” the research firm’s economists once wrote. “A high share of tech, high rent levels, expensive housing, and a growing crime and homelessness problem downtown all mean that San Francisco office owners are set for a torrid time over the coming years.”
A local Redfin agent included in the analysis said something similar: “Home prices have fallen from their peak… It’s not just because mortgage rates are high. San Francisco has lost some of its appeal post-pandemic. A lot of tech employers and big-name retailers have moved out of the city, and some of my clients have reported they’re leaving the area because they don’t feel as safe as they used to.”
But it’s not all bad; things have seemingly gotten better for the city. For one, homes are selling at less of a loss, as Redfin pointed out. But also, there was a time when home prices were down roughly 10% in a year. Even in the office sector things are sort of looking up, all because of the hype surrounding artificial intelligence that’s led such startups to take on more physical office space; OpenAI and Anthropic were big ones.
“San Francisco went through a very low low, and we heard words of doom loop, and now we’re going through what I think a lot of people see as just the nascent beginning of a recovery,” Alexander Quinn, senior director of Northern California research for JLL, previously told Fortune.
And let’s not forget that falling home prices are good for people who want to buy homes, particularly in an already insanely expensive city—where home prices are more than 200% higher than the national average, where rents are 55% higher than the national median, and there’s a substantial homeless population. And not all sellers are losing money. There are more sellers in San Francisco making money than losing on the sale of their homes; the typical San Francisco seller sold for $482,000 more than what they bought their home for during the same three-month period, according to Redfin.
