Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said she expects a slowdown for the U.S. economy but stopped short of predicting an outright recession.
Fraser, who spoke Wednesday at the Fortune CEO Initiative, described the current U.S. labor market as very tight. In May, the nation’s employers exceeded expectations when they added 339,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, from a five-decade low of 3.4% in April, Fortune reported.
“I think we’re certainly heading for a slowdown. No one quite knows when it’s coming because the U.S. is so resilient,” Fraser told an audience filled with chief executives. The CEO said she’s definitely seeing signs of softening but isn’t stressed because “the U.S. consumer is entering—whatever the slowdown is—in good health.”
Fraser, 55, also discussed the recent regional banking crisis. In March, Silicon Valley Bank, once one of the most powerful lenders for venture startups, collapsed after investors and depositors tried to withdraw some $42 billion. First Citizens Bank & Trust ended up buying it. Signature Bank also shut down that month when depositors withdrew large sums. New York Community Bancorp acquired most of Signature’s deposits. In May, regulators then seized First Republic Bank, whose share price plunged 97% from March to May despite a $30 billion rescue package from 11 banks. JPMorgan Chase scooped up First Republic.
Fraser said there were a handful of banks that were mismanaged, but that “large banks are in very strong health. So, the typical amplifiers of a recession just aren’t in place.”
Fraser became Citi’s CEO in March 2021 and is one of the first women to lead a major U.S. financial institution. She assumed the position during a high point for Wall Street, when mergers and IPOs were setting records, and venture funding was ramping up. Since then, U.S. equity markets have experienced a downturn, causing M&A and public offerings to slow significantly. Citi’s stock has tumbled more than rivals’—about 33% since March 1, 2021, while JPMorgan and Bank of America are down about 7% and 22%, respectively.
Under Fraser, Citigroup has sought to simplify its business. In April 2021, the bank announced plans to sell 14 of its international consumer banking businesses. So far, it has closed seven deals. This includes the 2022 sales of its consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. This year, Citi had been in talks to sell its Mexican retail bank, Citibanamex, but instead opted to spin off the unit in an IPO. Citi expects to complete the separation during the second half of 2024 and take the company public in 2025, according to a company statement. Fraser is the former CEO of Citi’s Latin America business.
Fortune CEO Alan Murray, who interviewed Fraser on Wednesday, said she was given a tough job.
“Where do you think you are in that turnaround?” Murray asked.
“Halfway through, with good progress,” Fraser said.
Fraser also addressed one of the biggest issues on Wall Street: employees returning to the workplace. In April, JPMorgan ordered senior leaders back to the office five days a week. Employees in non-leadership roles, in certain divisions such as trading or sales, were expected to work in the office full-time. Others were asked to be in at least three days a week.
Goldman Sachs also wants employees back five days a week, Fortune reported in March.
Most Citigroup workers are in the office three days a week, Fraser explained. Traders typically come in more often. Employees who are in apprenticeship roles are encouraged to be in the office. The bank wants people to return to the office but is flexible. If an employee isn’t performing well, Citigroup will want them to return to the office, where they can be coached toward improvement, Fraser said.
“You’re going to be there until you’re performing more strongly again, and then you can go back,” she said.
Fraser spoke about China, where she visited last week. She also said she’s “very big on India,” which saw its GDP cross the $3.5 trillion mark last year. By comparison, China’s GDP is expected to reach about $20 trillion in 2024, according to the Global Times.
“I think the next China is…China,” Fraser said. “They’re very clear they’ve got a lot of challenges. But still I think it’s tough to look at innovation in that economy and not feel they’ve got further to go.”
