• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

2

Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

2

Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
FinanceEconomy

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed will face these two ‘unpleasant choices’ next year

By
Alena Botros
Alena Botros
Former staff writer
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Alena Botros
Alena Botros
Former staff writer
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 12, 2022, 5:56 PM ET
Photo of Mohamed El-Erian.
Mohamed El-Erian in 2016. Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg—Getty Images

Over the past year, investors and economists have repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve for its aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at lowering inflation.

Mohamed El-Erian—the economist who was once CEO of Pimco and is currently the president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge—has been one of the central bank’s biggest detractors, consistently slamming the Fed for being late to act against inflation. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is currently at 7.7% after peaking at 9.1% in June. 

“The Fed is still playing catch-up to tame rising prices after its protracted gross mischaracterisation last year of inflation as ‘transitory’ and its initially timid steps to withdraw monetary stimulus,” El-Erian wrote in an op-ed for the Financial Times published on Sunday.

One of his chief complaints is the 2% inflation target that the Fed established in 2012 as the ideal level. The target, Bank of America recently said, provides “buffers” for policymakers, in that it leaves room to lower interest rates during an economic downturn while also largely reducing the risk of deflation. 

El-Erian echoed the reasoning behind the target—but argued that because of it, the Fed will soon find itself in a difficult position.

“The world’s most powerful central bank is now confronted with two unpleasant choices next year: crush growth and jobs to get to its 2% target or publicly validate a higher inflation target and risk a new round of destabilized inflationary expectations.” 

El-Erian isn’t the only prominent critic of the Fed’s 2% target. Both Barry Sternlicht, CEO of private investment firm Starwood Capital Group, and economist William Spriggs have previously told Fortune that the Fed’s commitment to its target could push the economy into a recession. Sternlicht called the target “arbitrary,” and Spriggs said, “There’s nothing written in stone that says inflation is supposed to be limited to 2%.”

But the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is what El-Erian said is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is still three times more than the Fed’s target. PCE is based on data from businesses, while CPI sources data from consumers; both indexes measure spending, but the PCE does so on a much broader scale. 

Meanwhile, accelerating wage growth and strong monthly job gains suggest inflation could continue to “overshoot” the Fed’s forecast, El-Erian said.

“Rather than fall to 2-3% by the end of next year, U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above,” El-Erian said. “This is what happens when an inflationary moment is allowed to get embedded into the economic system.”

A 3% to 4% inflation target would be more reasonable, El-Erian said, given the instability of supply, the transition away from fossil fuels (likely because the transition itself can be costly), and an extended period of nearly zero interest rates. 

What could be happening is that the Fed is publicly signaling a 2% target, but could instead pursue a higher number and hope the public accepts it, he said. However, if that were to happen, he said, the Fed would risk raising more concern over its “accountability, credibility, and autonomy.”

“Yet, given the extent of economic uncertainty and financial fragilities, the Fed could end up thinking that this far from perfect policy approach may be the better course of action,” El-Erian wrote. 

Our new weekly Impact Report newsletter examines how ESG news and trends are shaping the roles and responsibilities of today's executives. Subscribe here.

About the Author
By Alena BotrosFormer staff writer
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Alena Botros is a former reporter at Fortune, where she primarily covered real estate.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

elon
SuccessIPOs
SpaceX IPO targets $28.5 trillion total addressable market, mission to ‘make life multiplanetary’ and understand ‘true nature of the universe’
By Nick LichtenbergMay 20, 2026
3 hours ago
Jensen Huang, chief executive officer of Nvidia
AINvidia
Nvidia tells skeptical investors that AI is ready to go mainstream
By Ian King and BloombergMay 20, 2026
3 hours ago
SpaceX finally files IPO prospectus, reveals revenue is up–but losses are too
Big TechSpaceX
SpaceX finally files IPO prospectus, reveals revenue is up–but losses are too
By Allie Garfinkle and Alexei OreskovicMay 20, 2026
4 hours ago
Elon Musk sits with his fists together, looking up.
Commentaryspace
SpaceX will be worth trillions, but the space station that made it possible is worth even more — if we don’t squander it
By Tejpaul BhatiaMay 20, 2026
4 hours ago
Clinical Psychologist Daniel Wendler
ConferencesWorkplace Innovation Summit
A ‘proudly autistic’ workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
By Tristan BoveMay 20, 2026
5 hours ago
Hiba Mona Anver, wearing a black and white striped dress, gestures with her hands as she speaks onstage.
North AmericaWorkplace Innovation Summit
80% of companies have an immigrant in a top leadership role—Trump’s visa crackdown is forcing them to make a ‘plan C,’ warns immigration expert
By Sasha RogelbergMay 20, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
1 day ago
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
Future of Work
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
By Mike Householder and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
3 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
8 days ago
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
Success
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
By Preston ForeMay 20, 2026
10 hours ago
Spirit Airlines apologizes to all the Americans who can't afford any summer vacation flights as it shuts down
Travel & Leisure
Spirit Airlines apologizes to all the Americans who can't afford any summer vacation flights as it shuts down
By Rio Yamat and The Associated PressMay 18, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of May 19, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 19, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 19, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.