Expert economists and titans of industry are holding their breath about the future of the U.S. economy, wondering whether a crashing stock market and runaway inflation woes will transform into a wider recession.
Now Cardi B is wading into the mix as well.
“When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?” tweeted Cardi B on Sunday.
Although she is famous for her chart-topping singles and collaborations, this is far from the Grammy-winning artist’s first foray into sociopolitical discourse. Leading up to the 2020 election, she interviewed now President Joe Biden for Elle, and then candidate Bernie Sanders as part of his official campaign. In January, her tweets about the death of a Connecticut woman helped launch a formal criminal investigation.
Fortune reached out to Cardi B through Warner Music Group, but did not receive a comment.
A recession is often defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The U.S. has currently experienced one such quarter, but is still waiting for official numbers on the second quarter.
A convergence of factors have led to the current moment of economic uncertainty: record-high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and persistent supply-chain problems as a result of the pandemic. The Fed has attempted to rein in inflation by instituting two hikes on its baseline interest rate, first in March and again in May. In doing so, it’s trying to navigate to a “soft landing” to inflation, in which the U.S. ultimately skirts a recession while getting inflation under control.
Cardi isn’t the only person wondering whether those efforts will be successful. More than 80% of Americans believe the U.S. will fall into a recession, according to an April CNBC survey. And consumer sentiment fell nearly 30% over the last year, according to a report from the University of Michigan released in May.
Experts say that consumers’ general sentiment about the economy can even contribute to what eventually happens to it. “Persistently negative views of the economy may come to dominate personal factors in influencing consumer behavior in the future,” wrote economist and survey director Joanne Hsu in a statement accompanying the report.
“I would think the price of oil or the Fed would push us into a recession in 2023,” said investor and hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman in a conversation with CNBC in April. “It’s not written in stone, but that would be my guess.” Carl Icahn and DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach made similar warnings to investors in March.
More recently, Elon Musk told an audience at the All-In Summit last month that the U.S. is probably already there.
“It’ll probably be some tough going for, I don’t know, a year, maybe 12 [to] 18 months,” he said. Last week, Musk told investors that he’s “feeling super bad” about the economy and wants to cut Tesla’s workforce by 10% and institute a hiring freeze, according to an internal email viewed by Reuters.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs economists said it appears the U.S. is still on the right path to achieving a soft landing for the economy. Other major banks have voiced similar optimism.
“In sum, there are a number of risks to growth across the world, but if the shocks are not synchronized then they are more likely to create an extended period of global weakness rather than a concentrated recession,” Bank of America’s economic research team wrote in a note last month.
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