For the first time since the early 1980s, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed two percentage points in just a four-month window—climbing from 3.11% in December to 5.11% as of Thursday.
That swift run-up in mortgage rates hasn’t happened by accident. In recent months, the Federal Reserve has affirmed it’s serious about tackling runaway inflation and will lean into its inflation fighting playbook to do so. If all goes to plan, higher interest rates should cause homebuyers to back off a bit and return the housing market to a healthier level of growth.
While spiking mortgage rates are undoubtedly an economic shock to the housing market, we shouldn’t pencil in a home price correction. At least that’s according to Fannie Mae’s latest forecast.
On the year, Fannie Mae now forecasts that U.S. home prices will rise 10.8% in 2022. That’s a slight downward revision from March, when Fannie Mae was predicting a 11.2% jump in home prices this year.
If home prices do jump 10.8% in 2022, it would represent a deceleration from the record 18.8% jump that occurred last year. That said, it would hardly be relief for homebuyers. In fact, at that rate, it would still be more than double the average annual home appreciation (4.6%) posted since 1987.
While Fannie Mae thinks home price growth should remain in the double digits through the year, it doesn’t think it will continue past 2022. Next year, Fannie Mae projects that U.S. home prices will climb just 3.2%. That’s down a bit from March, when Fannie Mae was projecting 4.2% home price growth in 2023.
“Mortgage rates have ratcheted up dramatically over the past few months, and historically such large movements have ended with a housing slowdown. Consequently, we expect home sales, house prices, and mortgage volumes to cool over the next two years. In particular, we expect house price growth to decelerate to a pace more consistent with income growth and interest rates,” writes Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, in the firm’s latest report.
When it comes to home price increases, Fannie Mae’s 10.8% forecast remains in the middle of the pack.
Last week, Zillow revised its 2022 forecast. The home listing site now believes home prices are poised to climb 14.9% this year. Over the coming year, CoreLogic predicts that home prices are set to rise 5%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association says home prices are poised to rise 4.8%.
It might be wise to take all housing forecasts with a grain of salt. Case in point: the COVID-19 recession. During the spring of 2020, both Zillow and CoreLogic published housing forecast models predicting that U.S. home prices would fall by spring 2021. Prices didn’t fall. In fact, home prices went on a record run.
If you’re hungry for more housing data, follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.
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