Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has scrambled geopolitics, rewriting global alliances and transnational norms. Ukraine is fighting to preserve its freedom and independence while Europe watches warily. Meanwhile, one tiny region at the farthest edge of the continent is trying to secede from its home country and join Russia.
South Ossetia, a region of northern Georgia bordering Russia, has been recognized by the Kremlin as a sovereign state since 2008. The breakaway region has enjoyed strong relations with Russia ever since, with its residents even immediately eligible for Russian citizenship.
Amid the chaos of Russia’s war in Ukraine, South Ossetian President Anatoly Bibilov has announced a referendum to decide the fate of the separatist state. Legal steps are being explored for South Ossetia—a territory of little over 50,000 people covering around 1,500 square miles of land—to officially join the Russian Federation in the “near future,” the official news service of Russia’s leading party announced Wednesday.
“I believe that unification with Russia is our strategic goal. This is our way and an aspiration of our people,” Bibilov said in statements reported by TASS, Russia’s largest leading state-owned news agency. “The Republic of South Ossetia will become part of its historical motherland—Russia.”
Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia as a sovereign state, a proclamation that Georgia has ignored, occurred in 2008, after a brief conflict between Russia and Georgia. Relations between the two countries were at a historic low, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia—another separatist Georgian state—began demanding sovereignty with the backing of Russian militias.
War eventually erupted, ignited by South Ossetian rebels, and a violent conflict backed by Russia ensued. The war only lasted a few days before a ceasefire was negotiated. In its aftermath, Georgia severed all diplomatic ties with Russia, which removed all troops from undisputed areas of the country. Russia recognized both South Ossetia and Abkhazia as sovereign states, while Georgia considered them both under “military occupation” by Russia.
South Ossetia has deep ties to North Ossetia, a Russian-owned region immediately across the border. Both regions are inhabited by ethnic Ossetians, who share a language and cultural history. A South Ossetian separatist movement first emerged in the 1980s, demanding unification with North Ossetia, leading to another brief conflict with the Soviet Union and initiating years of unresolved territorial disputes.
In the years since the war, four other countries—Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria, and Nauru—have joined Russia in recognizing the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Most of these nations have close economic or political ties with Russia.
Russian forces still remain in South Ossetia, and the region’s military has spent years integrating itself with Russia’s. Some South Ossetian forces have even been deployed to help Russia wage its war in Ukraine.
Georgia has called the possible referendum vote “unacceptable.” In the past, it’s been willing to completely cut diplomatic ties with countries who recognize South Ossetia’s sovereignty.
Abkhazia—Georgia’s other would-be separatist state—has supported South Ossetia’s decision to explore joining Russia, although officials say it has no plans to do so itself. An Abkhazian official recently told TASS that it was unclear if unification was constitutionally permitted, and that such a movement would likely be unpopular amongst the public.
The Kremlin has been neutral on Bibilov’s announcement, with one spokesperson saying that the Russian government has not taken “legal or any other measures” on the matter.
“This concerns the choice of the South Ossetian people, which we respect,” the spokesperson said.
