Consumers are already spending heavy for holiday 2021 gifts

A new report from Adobe Analytics’ shows consumers have already spent $72.2 billion in online shopping this month (through Nov. 23). That’s nearly 20% more than they did in the same time frame last year.

By the time the holiday season wraps up, Adobe estimates online sales will hit $207 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase and a new record for online spending.

“The strong growth shows that many consumers have begun shopping early,” says the report. “This surging demand also highlights that even with persistent out-of-stock messages, shoppers are getting comfortable with buying something that may not have been at the top of their list.”

Demand for toys is leading the charge by a wide margin. Toy sales are up 256% compared to September, as parents hope to avoid supply chain issues.

Speaking of supply chain issues, brace yourself for more “out of stock” messages this year. Those alerts are up 261% compared to November 2019—and have increased 8% in the last week alone. Electronics are most likely to be out of stock, followed by personal care products, home and garden products, housekeeping supplies, and baby & toddler products.

The big retailers are only getting bigger as this surge in online shopping takes place. Smaller retailers are seeing a slower increase in online sales, says Adobe. Bigger companies, such as Amazon or Walmart, are seeing a 12% boost in revenue vs. smaller competitors.

While Cyber Monday will still be the biggest online shopping day of the year, with an estimated $11.3 billion take (a $1.4 billion drop from last year), Thanksgiving will be a big day as well, since many retailers’ brick and mortar locations will be closed this year. Adobe expects turkey day sales to be between $5.1 billion and $5.9 billion.