• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

New

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Financelumber

The lumber bubble finally pops—erasing all of its 2021 gains

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 20, 2021, 10:30 AM ET
Video Poster
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Lumber prices came down nearly as fast as they soared up to record-breaking levels this spring.

For the seventh consecutive week, the “cash market” lumber price, what sawmills charge distributors and wholesalers, is down. Last week, the cash price of lumber fell $114, to $575 per thousand board feet, according to data provided to Fortune by Fastmarkets’ Random Lengths, an industry trade publication.

That represents not just a pullback, but a massive correction. The price is down 62% from its $1,515 all-time high set on May 28. In fact, it has completely erased all of its 2021 gains. The price of lumber is still above its pre-pandemic range, when it usually traded between $350 to $500, however, it’s lower now than the $582 peak price hit during its 2018 run.

Why are lumber prices falling? Exorbitant price levels reached in the spring corrected as homebuilders and do-it-yourselfers backed off a bit. In June, home improvement sales and new home construction were down 9.8% and 5%, respectively, from their March highs. That cooling has given sawmills and the lumber supply chain breathing room to catch up on the supply side.

While prices are coming down at big box retailers, like Lowe’s and Home Depot, the decline isn’t as quick as the decline on the wholesale side. But they will catch up. Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at Sherwood Lumber, recently told Fortune that each wholesale dip will take “about 60 to 90 days to get into the market.”

The lumber pullback wasn’t a huge surprise in the industry. It was really basic economic theory: Elevated demand—from DIY projects and homebuilding—at some point would cool as the price for limited supply soared. Which it did. Only now that lumber has erased all of its 2021 gains, industry insiders are surprised buyers aren’t returning faster to scoop up the discounts.

“I’m not surprised by a correction…But it is remarkable we are not seeing more buyers step in at these levels. Brings into question how strong demand actually is,” Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, told Fortune.

But that doesn’t mean prices are going to fall back to their pre-pandemic levels. Prices could even tick up again. Many homebuilders are sitting on the sidelines as prices drop, but if they all rush back in, it could drive another surge. Industry insiders also point to hurricane and wildfire seasons as potential disruptions.

“I think over the next 30 days it goes back up again…Two hurricanes, back to back, and next thing you know it’s over $600. That’s okay, though—the market is fine with that; it’s $1,000 wood the market isn’t okay with,” said Chip Setzer, director of trading and growth for Mickey Group, a commodity trading platform.

As Fortune has previously reported, this historic lumber shortage was spurred by a perfect storm of factors set off during the pandemic. When COVID-19 broke out in spring 2020, sawmills cut production and unloaded inventory in fears of a looming housing crash. The crash didn’t happen; instead, the opposite occurred. Americans rushed to Home Depot and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects, while recession-induced interest rates helped spur a housing boom. That boom, which was exacerbated by a large cohort of millennials starting to hit their peak homebuying years, dried up housing inventory and sent buyers in search of new construction. Home improvements and construction require a lot of lumber, and mills just couldn’t keep up.

More must-read finance coverage from Fortune:

  • Female migrant workers and the families they support are being abandoned by the money-transfer industry
  • This Trump appointee bet big on the markets after Biden’s win
  • IRS child tax credits could be an unexpected burden for some taxpayers
  • Is China’s Bitcoin crackdown cutting mining’s emissions—or shifting them somewhere else?
  • Social Security payments could rise over 6% next year

Subscribe to Fortune Daily to get essential business stories straight to your inbox each morning.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

Top CD rates from major banks Aug. 5, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on August 5, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 5, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of Ethereum for Aug. 6, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for August 5, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 5, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of Bitcoin for Aug. 5, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for August 5, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 5, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of oil as of Aug. 5, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of August 5, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 5, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, August 5, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 5, 2026
2 hours ago
Bill Ackman, unfiltered: The billionaire hedge fund founder’s take on AI, investing, and why socialism is a ‘disaster’
SuccessFortune 500: Titans and Disruptors of Industry
Bill Ackman, unfiltered: The billionaire hedge fund founder’s take on AI, investing, and why socialism is a ‘disaster’
By Fortune EditorsAugust 5, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

How Zohran Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax exposed an epidemic of 'ghost cars' instead
Personal Finance
How Zohran Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax exposed an epidemic of 'ghost cars' instead
By Catherina GioinoAugust 4, 2026
1 day ago
Bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we're paying with our health
North America
Bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we're paying with our health
By Catherina GioinoAugust 2, 2026
3 days ago
Ray Dalio on the AI bubble nearing 1929, 2000 levels and the lesson people always forget: 'Wealth is not the same as money'
Investing
Ray Dalio on the AI bubble nearing 1929, 2000 levels and the lesson people always forget: 'Wealth is not the same as money'
By Nick LichtenbergAugust 4, 2026
1 day ago
Forget Gen Z: People in their 70s and 80s are some of the earliest Americans to welcome physical AI into their homes and daily routines
AI
Forget Gen Z: People in their 70s and 80s are some of the earliest Americans to welcome physical AI into their homes and daily routines
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezAugust 3, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of August 4, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of August 4, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerAugust 4, 2026
1 day ago
Scott Bessent is using moves from his hedge fund days to prop up Japan's yen—and America's $40 trillion national debt
Economy
Scott Bessent is using moves from his hedge fund days to prop up Japan's yen—and America's $40 trillion national debt
By Mia OsmonbekovAugust 4, 2026
17 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.