He’s back.
Former President Donald Trump is set to speak Sunday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in his first public appearance since leaving the White House and being acquitted in a historic second impeachment trial.
But is he really back?
Vegas thinks so. Betting odds suggest Trump is more likely than not to declare himself for the Republican nomination for President in the 2024 election during his CPAC speech, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com. As of Friday morning, those odds were 4 to 5, suggesting a 55.6% implied probability that Trump declares during his speech.
“The betting markets seem confident that Trump will declare his candidacy during his speech, but not so much that he’ll be doing so as a member of a party that isn’t the GOP,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “The odds of Trump running in 2024 and not representing the Republican party are 4 to 1, which equates to just a 20% chance.”
Other odds for Trump’s Sunday speech suggest he is likely to double down on his claim that the election was stolen and name some of the House Republicans that voted to impeach him. The odds Trump says “stolen,” or “stolen election,” during his CPAC speech are 1 to 1 (50% implied probability). The odds that he names any of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him are 2 to 1 (33.3%).
For other Republican 2024 hopefuls looking to make their mark at this weekend’s conference, Trump’s appearance presents a roadblock.
Despite his two impeachments—one of which was for inciting the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol earlier this year—many believe Trump is still the face and future of the GOP.
On Wednesday, Utah senator and noted Trump opponent Mitt Romney said Trump likely would win the GOP presidential nomination if he decided to run again in 2024. Romney was the only Republican who voted to convict Trump in both of his impeachment trials.
“He has by far the largest voice and a big impact in my party,” Romney said at a New York Times DealBook virtual event on Tuesday. “I don’t know if he’s planning to run in 2024 or not, but if he does, I’m pretty sure he would win the nomination.”
Trump has made noticeable improvements in the 2024 election betting markets recently, according to US-Bookies.com. This week, Trump’s odds to win a second election improved to 11 to 2 (15.4% implied probability), an increase over last week’s odds at 8 to 1 (11.1%).
Vice President Kamala Harris remains the overall favorite to win in 2024, with odds at 7 to 2 (22.2%). Meanwhile, President Biden’s chances for reelection took a hit in the past week, from 4 to 1 (20%) to 9 to 2 (18.2%).
In the 2020 election, there was an unprecedented interest in betting odds as a means of forecasting results. As Fortune reported in November, international bookmakers saw “record amounts of wagering on the 2020 race.”
And for good reason. According to US-Bookies.com, the odds-on betting favorite won 49 of the 50 states up for grabs in the election, with Georgia being the only exception.
