• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'

3

Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Finance

Financial sacrilege: Saving for retirement could be a mistake for twenty- and thirtysomethings

Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
Geoff Colvin
By
Geoff Colvin
Geoff Colvin
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 9, 2021, 1:42 PM ET

Raise your hand if you think young workers who save nothing for retirement are making a terrible mistake.

It seems likely that most hands went up, understandably. A broad consensus holds that America faces a retirement crisis because people don’t save enough, and young people are the worst savers. Workers in their twenties are by far the least likely to participate in employee retirement saving plans, investing giant Vanguard reports, and in the past five years they’ve become significantly less likely to participate. They’re squandering the opportunity to let their savings compound for the longest possible time. That’s why automatic enrollment in employer-sponsored 401(k) accounts is such a good idea.

But what if that thinking is wrongheaded, and young people are behaving just the way hyperrational economic models say they should? New research by eminent experts finds that many young workers are doing exactly that. In a just-released working paper, the authors conclude that “for liquidity-constrained young adults who anticipate significant earnings growth, optimal retirement saving is zero.”

This is beyond startling. It’s sacrilege in a financial advice industry that has long counseled maximum feasible saving for retirement. But the authors of this new paper base their counterintuitive argument on the indisputable reality that there’s more to life than saving. 

A large literature in economics specifies happiness rather than savings as the quantity to be maximized. The focus of the new paper is “total life satisfaction from material consumption,” as one of its authors, Stanford University professor John Shoven, tells Fortune. He’s a longtime authority on retirement economics, Social Security, Medicare, and pensions. 

Life satisfaction is hardly a new concept in economics; it’s what economists call utility. The economic model created by Shoven and colleagues assumes income can be spent or saved, and if it’s saved it can go into a retirement account like a 401(k), with various rates of employer matching, or into a taxable investment account. The future utility of consuming today’s savings is discounted, says Shoven, for three reasons: “People display impatience; they may not be alive at distant future dates; and they may not be in good health at future dates, such as suffering from dementia.”

The model assumes a worker who was born in 1995, starts work at age 25, and retires at 67 with Social Security replacing 34% of after-tax income; it also includes required minimum distributions from the retirement account.

In a previous era, when interest rates were higher and most of the workforce consisted of high school graduates whose inflation-adjusted incomes would increase only slightly during a career, the traditional advice—starting to save for retirement at the beginning of employment—made sense under Shoven’s model.

 The conclusions begin to shift, however, when you add a couple of plausible assumptions based on today’s environment—namely, that a college graduate’s income at age 25 will be only 42% of their peak income at 45 or 50, and inflation-adjusted interest rates, a gauge of safe investment returns, are extremely low, around 0%. Under those conditions, a rational total-life-satisfaction maximizer won’t start saving for retirement until age 41, and that’s if their employer matches 50% of their 401(k) contributions; without matching, they won’t start saving until age 44.

They would rationally start saving earlier if the safe inflation-adjusted return were higher, 3%, but even then they wouldn’t start until age 37 with employer matching of 401(k) contributions and age 40 without.

These conclusions will strike many people as crazy—the opposite of rational. When rates of return are lower, shouldn’t workers start saving earlier, not later? Similarly, shouldn’t they start saving earlier if their employer isn’t matching their 401(k) contributions? But remember, the objective isn’t maximum savings; it’s maximum total life satisfaction. When investment returns are low, workers have little incentive to sacrifice today’s consumption in favor of barely greater consumption years from now. Employer matching enables workers to achieve a given level of saving while sacrificing less of their current consumption, so they’re willing to start earlier.

The authors acknowledge that real life is more complicated. People save for reasons in addition to retirement, such as buying a home or building a rainy-day fund; saving before having kids may be wise because saving will be more difficult afterward. Nonetheless, they say, “Our general argument still applies to retirement saving that occurs in an illiquid employer-sponsored pension account.”

Which brings us back to automatic enrollment in 401(k)s, the past decade’s biggest trend in retirement saving. Vanguard says half the plans for which it keeps records now require participants to opt out rather than opt in. That structure is almost universally lauded, but this new study suggests a significant caveat. The authors’ conclusion: “Automatic enrollment that applies to workers of all ages could be nudging young people to make—rather than avoid—a mistake.”

About the Author
Geoff Colvin
By Geoff ColvinSenior Editor-at-Large
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Geoff Colvin is a senior editor-at-large at Fortune, covering leadership, globalization, wealth creation, the infotech revolution, and related issues.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Current price of silver as of Friday, May 22, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Friday, May 22, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 22, 2026
6 minutes ago
brotman
CommentaryVenture Capital
I’ve spent 25 years in venture capital. Here’s how it quietly shut ordinary Americans out of the AI wealth boom—and what could fix it
By Steve BrotmanMay 22, 2026
23 minutes ago
A year in the life at HP: What matters to its sustainability lead in May 2026? 
EuropeHP
A year in the life at HP: What matters to its sustainability lead in May 2026? 
By Francesca CassidyMay 22, 2026
1 hour ago
cox
CommentarySuccession
McKinsey studied 200 family business successions. The biggest problem wasn’t the heir — it was the outgoing CEO
By Acha Leke and Chaitali MukherjeeMay 22, 2026
1 hour ago
Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve, departs following his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Big TechMarkets
Wall Street has pretty much written off the idea of a Fed rate cut at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting
By Eleanor PringleMay 22, 2026
2 hours ago
Top CD rates today, May 22, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, May 22, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.20%
By Glen Luke FlanaganMay 22, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
22 hours ago
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
Success
Despite a $500 million net worth, Shaq just finished his fourth degree. He warns graduates: 'Your character will take you further than your resume'
By Preston ForeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
3 days ago
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
Workplace Culture
Pay transparency is exposing a bigger problem: Most companies can't explain why they pay what they pay
By Sydney LakeMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
Conferences
A 'proudly autistic' workplace expert says putting neurodivergent employees in a typical office is like dropping a polar bear in Austin, Texas
By Tristan BoveMay 20, 2026
2 days ago
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
Future of Work
Meet a 21-year-old community college student who's going to China as the first American woman welder in the trades Olympics
By Mike Householder and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
5 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.