Donald Trump is on his way to an easy re-election, according to a largely historically accurate poll by Moody’s Analytics.
The projection, based on three different economic models, forecasts that Trump’s margin of victory in 2020 will be even wider than his Electoral College defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
There are, of course, plenty of X factors that could come up between now and next November that could change the tide of the election, from impeachment proceedings to whoever the Democrats ultimately choose as their candidate (an issue that still seems undecided after Tuesday’s debate).
The Moody Analytic’s model, though, has been highly accurate, dating back as far as 1980. It has only missed once—2016, when it predicted Clinton would narrowly top Trump.
The poll looks at three different economic models to determine the results: Pocketbook (how people feel about their own finances), stock market performance and unemployment.
“The economy may not be top of mind for voters in every election, but it is hardly ever further than a close second,” said Moody’s in the report. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
That said, Moody’s says it “hesitate[s] to hang its hat” on a single model. And the election could come down to who shows up. If nonincumbent turnout is especially strong, says the organization, Democrats could win.
“If the U.S. economy sticks to our script over the next year, record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” said Moody’s. “While there is a growing consensus that the 2020 election could buck all norms in terms of overall turnout, which party will be the most successful at turning out voters in key states could be the difference between winning and losing.”
More must-read stories from Fortune:
—Trump impeachment inquiry: Who has been subpoenaed—and why
—5 lessons history has taught us about impeachment
—Most Americans favor an impeachment inquiry—but are wary of removing Trump, polls find
—How the circumstances around Donald Trump’s impeachment inquiry differ from Bill Clinton’s
—How whistleblowers have taken down titans of American business
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