Majority of Investors Believe Elizabeth Warren Will Win Democratic Nomination, Bank Survey Shows

An Evercore ISI survey on Tuesday — more than three months before the Iowa caucuses in February — found 70% of investors believe Senator Elizabeth Warren will win the Democratic party’s nomination for president.

Other campaigns will have a “job to do” in slowing the senator’s momentum, starting with Tuesday night’s debate, analyst Sarah Bianchi wrote in a note. Warren will likely “come under scrutiny for her position on Medicare for All,” along with the costs associated with expensive policies that opponents will argue are more suited to Harvard than to “real world problems,” Bianchi added.

Investors should also watch the debate for Democrats’ efforts to lash out against President Donald Trump’s China policy, as that “could entice the president to respond.” Bianchi sees a risk the debate will “incite” the president to “respond to the criticism and feel the need to up his rhetoric against the Chinese.” For now, however, Bianchi thinks Trump “will continue to stay on the course of the deal.”

Bianchi also said she expects all of the “Democrats will pile on and criticize Facebook, adding to the bipartisan challenges the company is facing.”

She said that this is the first debate for Senator Bernie Sanders “since his heart attack and a central goal is to show that he is full of energy and ready for the fight.” She expects former Vice President Joe Biden will “come prepared to make the case that he can take this fight with Trump and avoid the distractions of the attacks on his family.”

Evercore ISI wasn’t immediately available to provide further details regarding the survey’s methodology.

Investors were primed to watch bank earnings for potential commentary about the 2020 elections and Warren’s agenda, Wolfe analyst Steven Chubak said Monday. Wall Street has been a Warren target in the past. On Tuesday, she pledged to forgo any high-dollar fundraising events if she becomes the Democratic nominee.

The stock market has already started to reflect the ramifications of Warren potentially capturing the White House, according to analysts who have been flagging the senator’s rising influence. And the worst may be past for managed-care stocks this year, barring any major surprises, as investors are growing fed up with the political rhetoric in Washington.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks touched four-week highs, led by health care and financial shares, as earnings season began in earnest.