• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
FinanceState of the Union

9 Things Investors Will Be Watching Closely in Trump’s State of the Union Speech

By
Felice Maranz
Felice Maranz
and
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Felice Maranz
Felice Maranz
and
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 4, 2019, 10:55 AM ET

Clues on trade policy are likely to be top of mind for stocks investors watching President Trump’s State of the Union speech Tuesday. Trade remarks may influence equity sectors from footwear to auto parts, while pharma stocks may be volatile if the president zeros in on drug costs reforms, and financials and housing may be overlooked.

Trump is expected to reference a few areas “where both parties can agree” — including prescription drug prices and infrastructure plans — “but it is difficult to imagine the rhetoric turning into reality when Washington has struggled to keep the lights on,” Compass Point’s Isaac Boltansky tells Bloomberg. Boltansky expects the speech to focus on “economic growth, immigration, a few bipartisan mirages and the wall.” Still, this year’s speech may mean less for investors than it has in prior years, as the State of the Union has become “more pomp than policy,” he said.

Trump is likely to “focus on his ‘Promises Made, Promises Kept’ mantra to ensure that the ‘America First’ base of supporters turns out again in force,” Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in a note. “As such, executive actions restricting immigration, lowering drug prices, implementing trade restrictions, and other foreign policy initiatives will be front and center.”

Here’s what to watch:

Trade

“Next steps with China” are the most important trade point, Height Capital Markets’s Clayton Allen tells Bloomberg. He expects Trump will “aggressively claim concessions from the Chinese,” while discussions with the European Union are a “dark horse,” as “everyone seems to have let this go to the back burner, but there is still a lot of potential tension.” Allen also expects additional threats to pull out of Nafta in an attempt to force Congressional support for the USMCA, and “aggressive rhetoric around Venezuela, but no announcement of additional actions.”

Trade is likely to occupy “a substantial portion” of the speech, as legislative action from Congress during the next two years is unlikely, so Trump needs to prioritize “areas where he can enact change unilaterally,” Veda Partners director of economic policy research Henrietta Treyz says. She expects Trump to “leave the door open for further tariffs … but message that progress is being made.”

It’s also possible Trump may focus on the USMCA in a bid to be “flashy,” and “attract headlines” that would trigger the “combustible momentum you’d need to get action from the House or Senate before July 2019,” Treyz said. The president may also indicate his willingness to impose tariffs on foreign automobile imports in an effort to “shore up the automobile industry to protect our national security.”

Much like Trump’s trade agenda, “the speech will likely flow between the two poles that anchor the Administration’s macro trade policy: Tariff Man vs. Art of the Deal,” Cowen’s Chris Krueger wrote in a note. “We will be listening closely for any discussion of the biggest trade variable: auto and auto parts tariffs.”

If Trump mentions Nafta, automakers and parts suppliers will be the names to watch: General Motors, Ford, and Dorman Products, Visteon Corp., Delphi Technologies, American Axle & Manufacturing, Standard Motor Products, Aptiv Plc and Cooper-Standard. Regarding relations with China, keep an eye on industrial companies Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing Co.

Commodity investors may find comments on trade talks with China of particular interest, as industrial metals, such as copper, have been whipsawed by concerns over demand from China as the trade war stings. They’ll be looking for hints ahead of Trump’s March 1 “hard deadline” in trade negotiations, and China’s Vice Premier Liu He’s upcoming Washington meetings.

Retail

If Trump can assure the U.S. and China are moving closer to a trade deal, “apparel and footwear companies will rally” as the probability of tariffs on finished goods eases, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chen Grazutis said. That might also mean China’s economy will return to faster growth, “a positive for global brands that are counting on sales there.”

Companies including Nike Inc., Under Armour Inc., Canada Goose Holdings, VF Corp., Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap Inc., Ralph Lauren Corp., and PVH Corp. are a few apparel and footwear stocks with tariff exposure or that seek to expand in China.

Infrastructure

This will be a big area to watch as Trump is said to make a renewed push for spending in the sector, widely seen as a rare spot of bipartisanship in Washington. While the topic had been sidelined amid raging debates over tax reform and immigration, many experts see a plan making some inroads this year. Stocks to watch include Eagle Materials, Martin Marietta Materials, Emerson Electric, Eaton, Masco, Vulcan Materials, as well as railroad and airline companies.

Capital Alpha Partners’ Byron Callan said the address is an opportunity to highlight infrastructure as something to get done in 2019 after two years of little or no progress.

Health Care

Trump is likely to tout his administration’s long-awaited proposal to end a complex system of drug rebates that’s been blamed for helping keep prices high. The measure, announced on Thursday, could hand the president a potential win on drug pricing if passed.

Besides directly targeting middlemen like pharmacy benefit managers, the policy is a “clear negative” for makers of expensive drugs that use rebates to fend off competition from cheaper alternatives, said Veda Partners analyst Spencer Perlman. Sell-side analysts at Wall Street firms had mixed reactions as health-care supply chain stocks fell on Friday.

Read More: Drug Supply Chain Falls as Some on Wall Street Say Shake It Off

Defense

“Trump’s defense spending priorities will be interesting to watch because we’re still really trying to gauge where he stands,” James Bach, Bloomberg Intelligence government analyst said. In general, “Trump has overseen some pretty significant increases in discretionary appropriations. There hasn’t been a lot of noise around cutting spending as of late, so it would be notable if he does bring this up.”

Stocks to watch include Lockheed Martin Corp., Raytheon Co., Northrop Grumman Corp., General Dynamics Corp. and Boeing.

Energy

Trump may flag sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA that effectively block the nation from exporting crude to the U.S. That’s left U.S.-based refiners including Valero Energy Corp. searching for alternative sources of heavy crude oil. Goldman Sachs recently noted Valero, Citgo, PBF Energy Inc. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. are the main U.S. refiners exposed to Venezuelan crude imports.

Financials

“We’re not expecting President Trump to really focus or provide new views for the financial sector,” Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathan Dean said. Trump is likely to “be content to let regulators continue their path towards regional bank de-regulation.”

Housing, Housing Finance

Housing probably won’t be “one of Trump’s hottest topics” during the speech, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ben Elliott said. “If it gets a mention, it’ll probably be indirect or will just be a few seconds.” Even though housing finance reform and plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been under scrutiny lately, the president is unlikely to extensively discuss them, Elliott added.

There’s a chance Trump “mentions the administration’s intent to end the conservatorship of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) but we think any comments will probably just be in passing and lack specificity about the administration’s plan,” KBW’s Brian Gardner wrote in a note.

The Wall/Shutdown Concern

Height Capital Markets’s Allen will also be watching for how much Trump emphasizes “other ways to get his wall” as another “shutdown seems like it hinges on an emergency declaration.”

About the Authors
By Felice Maranz
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Bloomberg
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
EconomyDonald Trump
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
By The Associated Press and Christopher RugaberJune 10, 2026
5 hours ago
A man guides a ship in the water.
EnergyOil
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
5 hours ago
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
SuccessThe Promotion Playbook
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 10, 2026
9 hours ago
Kevin Warsh (L) shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump after being sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the East Room of the White House on May 22, 2026 in Washington, DC.
EconomyInflation
Inflation is back above 4% for the first time since 2023—but Kevin Warsh might catch a break
By Eva RoytburgJune 10, 2026
10 hours ago
swiss
EuropeImmigration
Switzerland to cast world’s first ever vote on whether to cap population
By Jamey Keaten and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
10 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks on June 10, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on June 10, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJune 10, 2026
10 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America's beef supply
North America
A ‘MAGA Warrior’ Texas ag chief is publicly blasting the USDA over a flesh-eating pest threatening America's beef supply
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 10, 2026
14 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.