President Donald Trump has been talking about renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since before he was inaugurated. In October, he took to Twitter to say, “If I can’t make a great deal, we’re going to tear it up.”
But judging by the most recent exchange between Mexico and the U.S., those negotiations might not go too smoothly. On Thursday, Mexico President Enrique Peña Nieto cancelled his meeting with Trump thanks to the U.S. president’s executive order for a “physical wall” to be built between the two states. (Later Trump claimed the cancellation was mutual.) The two leaders originally set the Jan. 31 meeting to discuss possible replacements for NAFTA.
Instead, Trump is floating the possibility of a 20% tax on Mexican imports as a way to help fund the Mexico border wall, according to White House press secretary Sean Spicer. That raises the question: What companies could see a boost in profits if NAFTA gets dismantled in favor of higher tariffs between the two nations?
It should be noted that many experts doubt that NAFTA will get dismantled; such an action would likely violate World Trade Organization rules. Moreover, the U.S. and Mexican economies are closely tied, with Mexico ranked as the U.S.’s second largest export market, and third-largest supplier in 2015.
But, Capital Economics Chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth tells Fortune, most stock watchers are expecting a dip in stock markets should Trump impose higher tariffs. That’s because many U.S. companies produce or buy parts from Mexico, he adds.
Some U.S. industries, such as financial services, are expected to be insulated from the shock due to their low exposure to the U.S.’s southern neighbor. Very few, if any, have a chance at benefitting from higher tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico. But these are the three stocks that may have a slight edge.
Vulcan Materials
This Birmingham., Ala.-based construction company has already gotten a bump from Trump’s pledge to build a the border wall. But it could get another boost from NAFTA’s end, Douglas Roman, a managing director at PNC Capital Advisors, tells Fortune. That’s because Vulcan Materials has Mexico-based competitors, such as Cemex. And as Cemex struggles with higher tariffs, Vulcan (VMC) could feel less pressure from the competition. The company also mostly operates within the U.S., with roughly 6,800 employees working in the country and 387 based in Mexico at the beginning of 2016.
Shares of Vulcan have risen 13% since Trump’s election on Nov. 8.
Bank of America
Financials in general may get a boost from investors seeking investments with low exposure to Mexico. But Bank of America (BAC) could see a higher jump than the rest, Scott Glover, director of equity research at USAA, tells Fortune.
“NAFTA has traditionally been an inflation check pulling out would be inflationary,” he says, noting that higher inflation would drive the Fed to raise interest rates.
Bank of America could benefit more than its peers because of its large national presence, making the bank a more attractive option should companies seek loans to try to bring production back to the U.S, Glover says.
Shares of Bank of America have risen 38% since Trump’s election.
CME Group
As the status quo shifts with the end of NAFTA, markets will be in for a shock. That could push investors to currency and commodity markets. So investors on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, or CME, could send trading volumes soaring — increasing the exchange’s revenue from fees.
“When you pull out of NAFTA, you are adding friction to the system in both commodity and currency,” Glover says. “So businesses are going to try to hedge, and [CME is] going to be a great beneficiary.”
Shares of CME (CME) have risen 13% since Trump’s election.
For more on Trump, NAFTA, and the stock market, click: The 3 Stocks That Could Tumble If Donald Trump Ended NAFTA.
