The staff of Fortune is assembling its predictions for 2017 in our annual feature, the Fortune Crystal Ball, now on newsstands in the December 1 issue of the magazine. Here’s one of our forecasts.
Looking for some geopolitical good news?
There will be much media attention on China’s disputes with its neighbors in the East and South China Seas. But words are unlikely to force truly destabilizing deeds because China’s reform process demands that China avoid trouble and because the neighbors know they can’t count on Washington to rescue them if they stumble into conflict.
In addition, Colombia’s peace deal took a tumble a few weeks ago, but after more negotiation, it will still happen because both sides want it.
Finally, despite political dysfunction in both Greece and Turkey, we can expect a deal to reunify divided Cyprus.
In all three cases, pragmatism prevails.
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Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the global political risk research and consulting firm.