đ„A Boom with a Viewđ„ is a column about startups and the technology industry, written by Erin Griffith. Find them all here: fortune.com/boom.
The age of unicorns, while glorious, is over. So far this year, fewer startups have hit the prized billion-dollar valuation than did any in a single quarter last year. Profitability and sustainable growth have come into vogue, and it almost feels gauche for startups to aspire to unicorn status. Rather, executives brag about âclean termsââmeaning favorable liquidation preferences on their term sheetsâand reasonable valuations.
But weâre not in the Age of Workhorses yet. Bill Gurley, the prominent venture capitalist at Benchmark, is still issuing sky-is-falling bubble warnings. Heâs not a lone Chicken Little. Fellow investors echo his sentiments behind the scenes.
The difference now is that Gurley and his peers are done warning about out-of-control spending at overcapitalized startups. The savviest startups spent 2016 cutting their burn rates, scaling back overly ambitious growth plans, and bragging about being on track for âprofitability in 2018.â The not-so-savvy ones, well, theyâre dead or coasting on fumes.
Instead, VCs are fretting over increased competition. Low interest rates and public market jitters have lured too many new sources of capital to the closed-off world of startup investing. For the past few years hedge funds and mutual funds have flooded the market with showy $100 million checks. But those unsophisticated investors, known behind closed doors as the âdumb money,â retreated this year. They felt burned by bad early-stage bets or tired of waiting for the âpre-IPOâ companies they backed (ahem, Uber) to get on with the IPO already. Weâre not likely to see a giant hedge fund do another early-stage deal, such as Tiger Global Managementâs $15 million Series B investment in Kitchensurfing in 2014. The on-demand chef service collapsed this spring.
The mutual fund retreat hasnât stopped new sources of venture money from emerging. Sovereign wealth funds, multi-corporate venture funds, ambitious pension funds, and Fortune 500 companies with billions in cash on their balance sheets are now dabbling in startup investing. SoftBank and Saudi Arabiaâs sovereign wealth fund recently announced a $100 billion tech fund, for example. Traditional VCs are raising increasingly bigger pools of capital to keep up.
For more on SoftBank, watch this Fortune video:
But the new dumb money isnât quite as dumb as the VCs would like us to think, nor is it as fickle as its mutual fund predecessors. With fewer new unicorns and a focus on profitability, it has become easier to tell which companies have a working business model and which ones are doomed for the dead pool. That means the competition to invest in Silicon Valleyâs small handful of winners is even stiffer.
Investment bankers say their phones are ringing more than ever with new money looking to back startups. Demand is soaring as unicorns become as rare as they were before this so-called bubble. Until the sluggish IPO market makes a comeback, stiff competition will be the norm. No guts, no glory.
A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2016 issue of Fortune with the headline âAge of Dissonance.â












