• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
FinanceEconomy

What the New All-Time High for the S&P 500 Says About the Economy

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 11, 2016, 3:10 PM ET
Trading On The Floor Of The NYSE As U.S. Shares Rise With Dollar While Treasuries Fall From Record
Photography by Eric Thayer—Bloomberg

The stock market is flying high again.

American stocks once again reached all-time highs with the value of the S&P 500 looking like it would close on Monday at a new record. The stock market index was trading at 2,140 by mid-afternoon. The only other time the S&P 500 closed above 2130 was in mid-May of 2015.

Oddly, that doesn’t seem to be lifting anyone spirits. According to polling from Gallup, most Americans will tell you that the U.S. economy is getting worse, not better. And this negativity has been with us ever since the financial crisis.

When the S&P 500 finally reached a new high in 2013 after years of clawing back the value lost during the financial crisis, the financial press used it as an opportunity to discuss a supposed disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. “Dow record? Who cares? Economy still stinks!” read one succinct headline.

Since that time, however, most economic indicators that describe the economic experience of the average American have improved. The unemployment rate has fallen to an historically low 4.9%, wage growth has accelerated, and home values have continued to rise.

atlanta-fed_wage-growth-tracker

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Despite the successful efforts of those with political axes to grind to distract from this fact, the fortunes of Wall Street and Main Street are closely intertwined. There simply is no way for investors to justify ever higher valuations for the companies on the S&P 500 without steady and significant economic growth that makes higher profits down the road possible. And if you take a look at the economic growth we have seen since the end of the financial crisis, that investor optimism appears justified.

fredgraph (3)

Over the past thirty years, economic growth per capita has averaged 1.6% per year. In the first quarter of 2016, year-over-year annualized per capita growth was 1.3%. So while there is some truth to the idea that the economy isn’t performing as well today as it has in the past, this idea has been over exaggerated by those trying to score political points or those employing hyperbole in order to get attention.

At the same time, there’s also evidence to suggest that investors are putting more money into stocks today than they would have at other points in American history. The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, for instance, has been trending higher for years now. That means that it takes less in profits today to justify a higher stock price than it did in years past. One reason for this is that central banks around the world have been buying up safe government debt in an effort to increase economic growth and inflation, leaving fewer of these assets for private investors to buy.

Screen Shot 2016-07-11 at 1.26.33 PM

The above chart captures this dynamic, as it shows the price of stocks on the S&P 500 rising faster than actual estimates of earnings by those companies. This is one of the data points folks who argue that the stock market is becoming unmoored from economic fundamentals point to.

What’s more, investors are shrugging off the fact that corporate profits have been flat for roughly a year. The reason: Corporate profit margins hit all time highs after the recession as employers had leveraged a weak economy to push down wages. The fact that profits are falling at the same time that wage growth is accelerating is likely being taken as a sign by investors that the economy is rebalancing itself, with workers set to take a bigger share of the economic pie in quarters, rather than evidence of an economy about to slow.

And in the long run, this would be great for the U.S. economy, given the fact that the biggest difference between the economy today and that of a generation or two ago is growing income and wealth inequality. Economists across the political spectrum see this dynamic as a potentially serious threat to future economic growth, and one that could be holding back consumer spending and higher corporate profits today.

UCLA economist Roger Farmer has described the relationship between the stock market and economy as “like two drunks walking down the street, tied together by a rope. The drunks can wander apart from each other in the short run, but in the long run they can never get too far apart.”

And while the stock market may be still be a bit ahead of its drinking buddy, the economy seems less far behind the last time we crossed into new high territory.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Richard McCathron is President & CEO, Hippo.
CommentaryInsurance
I’m leading a $100 million corporate turnaround. Here’s why I learned to distrust the growth mindset
By Richard McCathronMay 25, 2026
5 minutes ago
b
Economybaby boomers
The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire
By Nick LichtenbergMay 25, 2026
1 hour ago
Current ARM mortgage rates report for May 22, 2026
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for May 22, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMay 25, 2026
2 hours ago
Mortgage rates today, May 25, 2026
Personal Financemortgages
Mortgage rates today, May 25, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganMay 25, 2026
2 hours ago
Oil drops as U.S. says deal with Iran and Hormuz reopening is near
EnergyOil
Oil drops as U.S. says deal with Iran and Hormuz reopening is near
By Nicholas Lua and BloombergMay 24, 2026
10 hours ago
Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as alternate GDP gauge shows huge contraction
EconomyRussia
Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as alternate GDP gauge shows huge contraction
By Jason MaMay 24, 2026
11 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
4 days ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
21 hours ago
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real Estate
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
22 hours ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
3 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
5 days ago
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
Success
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
By Nick LichtenbergMay 23, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.