• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
FinanceEconomy

What the New All-Time High for the S&P 500 Says About the Economy

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 11, 2016, 3:10 PM ET
Trading On The Floor Of The NYSE As U.S. Shares Rise With Dollar While Treasuries Fall From Record
Photography by Eric Thayer—Bloomberg
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The stock market is flying high again.

American stocks once again reached all-time highs with the value of the S&P 500 looking like it would close on Monday at a new record. The stock market index was trading at 2,140 by mid-afternoon. The only other time the S&P 500 closed above 2130 was in mid-May of 2015.

Oddly, that doesn’t seem to be lifting anyone spirits. According to polling from Gallup, most Americans will tell you that the U.S. economy is getting worse, not better. And this negativity has been with us ever since the financial crisis.

When the S&P 500 finally reached a new high in 2013 after years of clawing back the value lost during the financial crisis, the financial press used it as an opportunity to discuss a supposed disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. “Dow record? Who cares? Economy still stinks!” read one succinct headline.

Since that time, however, most economic indicators that describe the economic experience of the average American have improved. The unemployment rate has fallen to an historically low 4.9%, wage growth has accelerated, and home values have continued to rise.

atlanta-fed_wage-growth-tracker

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Despite the successful efforts of those with political axes to grind to distract from this fact, the fortunes of Wall Street and Main Street are closely intertwined. There simply is no way for investors to justify ever higher valuations for the companies on the S&P 500 without steady and significant economic growth that makes higher profits down the road possible. And if you take a look at the economic growth we have seen since the end of the financial crisis, that investor optimism appears justified.

fredgraph (3)

Over the past thirty years, economic growth per capita has averaged 1.6% per year. In the first quarter of 2016, year-over-year annualized per capita growth was 1.3%. So while there is some truth to the idea that the economy isn’t performing as well today as it has in the past, this idea has been over exaggerated by those trying to score political points or those employing hyperbole in order to get attention.

At the same time, there’s also evidence to suggest that investors are putting more money into stocks today than they would have at other points in American history. The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, for instance, has been trending higher for years now. That means that it takes less in profits today to justify a higher stock price than it did in years past. One reason for this is that central banks around the world have been buying up safe government debt in an effort to increase economic growth and inflation, leaving fewer of these assets for private investors to buy.

Screen Shot 2016-07-11 at 1.26.33 PM

The above chart captures this dynamic, as it shows the price of stocks on the S&P 500 rising faster than actual estimates of earnings by those companies. This is one of the data points folks who argue that the stock market is becoming unmoored from economic fundamentals point to.

What’s more, investors are shrugging off the fact that corporate profits have been flat for roughly a year. The reason: Corporate profit margins hit all time highs after the recession as employers had leveraged a weak economy to push down wages. The fact that profits are falling at the same time that wage growth is accelerating is likely being taken as a sign by investors that the economy is rebalancing itself, with workers set to take a bigger share of the economic pie in quarters, rather than evidence of an economy about to slow.

And in the long run, this would be great for the U.S. economy, given the fact that the biggest difference between the economy today and that of a generation or two ago is growing income and wealth inequality. Economists across the political spectrum see this dynamic as a potentially serious threat to future economic growth, and one that could be holding back consumer spending and higher corporate profits today.

UCLA economist Roger Farmer has described the relationship between the stock market and economy as “like two drunks walking down the street, tied together by a rope. The drunks can wander apart from each other in the short run, but in the long run they can never get too far apart.”

And while the stock market may be still be a bit ahead of its drinking buddy, the economy seems less far behind the last time we crossed into new high territory.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

A deal is being negotiated that centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships
PoliticsIran
A deal is being negotiated that centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships
By Ben Finley, Samy Magdy, Darlene Superville and The Associated PressJuly 26, 2026
49 minutes ago
Stressed out Gen X woman
SuccessRetirement
Despite nearing their 60s, nearly four in 10 Americans heading towards the end of their careers don’t even have a retirement account
By Emma BurleighJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
A Gen Xer sold his company for $1.6 billion. He kept less than $100 million and gave the rest away because he doesn’t ‘believe in billionaires’
SuccessHow I made my first million
A Gen Xer sold his company for $1.6 billion. He kept less than $100 million and gave the rest away because he doesn’t ‘believe in billionaires’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
No, Miami isn’t more expensive than New York. But it may be less ‘affordable’
Real Estatehomebuying
No, Miami isn’t more expensive than New York. But it may be less ‘affordable’
By Catherina GioinoJuly 26, 2026
3 hours ago
The Trump administration has accrued roughly $26.7 billion across 30 equity or quasi-equity deals
EconomyDonald Trump
The U.S. government invested $27 billion in corporate stakes. Good luck finding them
By Eva RoytburgJuly 26, 2026
3 hours ago
Salary Transparent Street creator Hannah Williams
SuccessCareers
This millennial job-hopped every 6 months to $90K by the time she was 23—she left it all behind to become a salary negotiation guru
By Emma BurleighJuly 26, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
Middle East
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
19 hours ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
2 days ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
Success
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
Environment
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
Success
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
By Sydney LakeJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.