This Prediction Market Says Ted Cruz Has Basically No Chance to Win the Nomination
A major U.S. prediction market for the 2016 presidential election reports that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) has basically no chance to win the Republican nomination in the coming months.
The Iowa Electronics Market (IEM), which was started by the University of Iowa to help politics students engage in the election process, has found that Cruz has less of a chance to become the Republican nominee compared to any other candidate, even those who are not in the race right now.
Cruz, who lags far behind frontrunner Donald Trump on IEM’s betting platform, is well aware that his campaign needs a major boost. On Wednesday, he named former HP CEO Carly Fiorina as his vice presidential pick.
Nevertheless, IEM’s results seem to mirror the sentiment of Republican voters in the Northeast who on Tuesday threw strong support behind Trump. Trump thrashed his competition earning over 55% of the vote in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
Ohio Governor John Kasich, who remains in the race, doesn’t appear in the IEM’s results at all.
In the graph below, you can see Cruz’s performance versus Trump and Rubio. “RROF,” meanwhile, stands for any other candidate.
The IEM “is a futures market run for research and teaching purposes. Traders can buy and sell real-money contracts based on their belief about the outcome of an election or other event,” according to its website. “Using this ‘wisdom of crowds,’ the price of a contract at any given time is a forecast of the outcome.”
The IEM was started in 1988 and allows over 100 universities around the world to “increase students’ economic literacy.”
Fortune has reached out to the Iowa Electronics Market for comment, and we will update this post once we hear back.