Hello friends and Fortune readers.
Wall Street stock futures are higher this morning as global markets take their lead from a strong end to Monday’s session in the U.S.. Crude oil futures have bounced sharply to nearly $37 a barrel on talk of an emergency OPEC meeting to rein in oversupply if crude prices fall below $30. But the dollar continues to lose ground ahead of the Fed’s year-end meeting, with a first rate hike in nearly 10 years now thoroughly priced in.
Today’s must-read story is by Fortune’s Beth Kowitt on why PepsiCo’s (PEP) latest move to call its Tropicana orange juice GMO-free is almost meaningless and, ultimately, hinders the movement for GMO labeling. One expert says the move “obfuscates and adds confusion” rather than increase transparency. Read more here.
Here’s what else you need to know.
1. The Fed kicks off its last meeting this year.
The Federal Open Markets Committee begins its final two-day meeting for 2015, where many expect the group will decide to finally raise interest rates, for the first time since 2006. Investors anticipate a 79% chance that the Federal Reserve will pull the trigger, according to federal funds futures contracts. Ongoing rate gains are expected to be gradual and many traders are wagering that the Fed will manage only about two future rate hikes in 2016.
2. Volkswagen loses market share
Volkswagen AG’s market share in the E.U. fell sharply in November, the first full month to reflect the impact of the diesel emissions scandal on sales. According to the Brussels-based industry group ACEA, VW’s share of the E.U. market fell to 12.2% from 13.5%, as sales rose by only 3.1% on the year, compared to a broader increase of 13.7%. U.S. makers GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler all ate into VW’s share.
3. U.S. inflation update.
The Fed’s rate decision has hinged on two concerns: in-check inflation and improving employment. Employment has steadily improved over the past few years, while inflation has remained low. Another update comes tomorrow when the U.S. Labor Department releases November’s consumer-price index. Inflation was likely flat last month compared to October, held down by low gasoline prices, according to analyst estimates. Official figures will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
4. IAEA ends its nearly 12-year-long Iranian probe.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors is expected to end its nearly 12-year-long investigation into Iran’s nuclear program and its links to military programs. The extraordinary meeting in Vienna is a vital step towards unraveling sanctions against the nation and implementing the recently signed nuclear deal. Earlier this month, the IAEA said that Iranian scientists had played with nuclear-bomb technologies but never produced an actual weapon, ending the program in 2009. Iranian officials have denied the findings.
5. Approval deadline looms for Halliburton-Baker Hughes deal.
The U.S. Justice Department deadline for a decision on the Halliburton-Baker Hughes merger is due today, though officials could opt to extend the deadline or file a lawsuit to prevent the deal. Halliburton (HAL) announced its intention to buy Baker Hughes (BHI) for $34.6 billion in November of last year. The deal would merge the No. 2 and No. 3 oil-field services companies, and that is what has the DOJ worried. Antitrust officials are trying to figure out what assets would need to be sold to allow competitors to stay competitive, according to a Wall Street Journal report. If the deal falls through because of antitrust issues, Halliburton is required to pay Baker Hughes $3.5 billion.
