Last year famed Democratic campaign strategist James Carville told a roomful of businesspeople in Washington, “If Jeb Bush were named Jeb Smith, the nomination would be his for the asking.” That contention sounded plausible at the time. This morning, after an improved but still uninspiring debate performance by Bush last night, we can’t blame his long decline on America’s supposed distaste for dynasties and family wealth. His name is turning out to be irrelevant. An insightful analysis in this morning’s Washington Post shows that during the debate, viewers Googled Bush less than any other candidate onstage, including Rand Paul. Bush is a highly knowledgeable policy wonk beneath his obviously scripted and poll-tested talking points; he’s just not the kind of retail politician who engages today’s voters. He looks increasingly like a good potential cabinet member in someone else’s administration.
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Yet the question persists: Post-financial crisis, will America embrace a wealthy, well connected candidate? The answer that springs to mind – of course it will, just look at Donald Trump’s popularity – doesn’t hold up. While Trump is popular among Republicans in a crowded field, trailing only Ben Carson, he’s highly unpopular among Americans overall. He’s the most disliked Republican candidate, regarded unfavorably by 59% of the public, while only 37% view him favorably, says the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. That’s why so many pundits dismiss him as a potential nominee; even if by some miracle he were to win the nomination, his chances of winning the election look minuscule.
Americans don’t much like Trump, but the weight of the evidence still suggests to me that even today, with concern about income disparity and the 1% running high, America would not reject a nominee because he or she is rich. We have a long history of alternating between plutocrats and up-from-nothing strivers in the White House. Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and George W. Bush were born rich; Harry Truman, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama were born poor. We don’t care,
Besides, though it’s often overlooked, virtually all the leading candidates this time around are rich. In addition to Trump and Bush, Carson reported that he and his wife earned between $8.9 million and $27 million over a recent 16-month period. Carly Fiorina, whose support spiked after the second Republican debate, reported a net worth of about $60 million. Hillary Clinton, still the leading Democratic candidate nationwide by far, and her husband Bill have earned over $100 million since he left the presidency in 2001, including over $25 million in the past two years.
The larger point is that we Americans have no objection to wealth – the public loves Warren Buffett and countless zillionaire athletes and entertainers – and we actually love political dynasties. Think of the Kennedys, the Daleys of Chicago, the Cuomos of New York; the latest generation of Udalls at one point had three cousins serving simultaneously in the Senate.
In politics as in so much else, America still seems to be a land of opportunity. We mostly judge candidates on their individual merits. You can even be elected president if you’re rich and well connected. But not if you’re rich, well connected, and uninspiring.
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What We're Reading Today
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Today's Quote
"It is clear that DraftKings and FanDuel are the leaders of a massive, multibillion-dollar scheme intended to evade the law and fleece sports fans across the country...Today we have sent a clear message: not in New York, and not on my watch."- New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman discussing his decision to ban daily fantasy sports in the state. NYT
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