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Power Sheet – October 27, 2015

A bunch of CEOs got handed a tough new leadership challenge yesterday, and it will be instructive to observe how they handle it, for better or worse. As you’ve likely heard, a committee of the U.N.’s World Health Organization announced that processed meat causes cancer. This wasn’t the typical announcement of a new research study saying this or that “may contribute to” some health problem or “is correlated with” some nasty effect, and “further research is needed.” The WHO says processed meats – hot dogs, bacon, sausage, ham, deli meats – are carcinogens. They cause cancer, period. Like cigarettes. “Each 50-gram [1.8-ounce] portion of processed meat eaten daily increases the risk of colorectal cancer by 18%,” the panel says flatly.

We’ll now see how the producers respond to this potential industry crisis. Especially revealing will be the reactions of the four huge companies that dominate the U.S. meat business: Arkansas-based Tyson Foods, led by CEO Donnie Smith; the Brazilian company JBS, led by CEO Andre Nogueira; Cargill, America’s largest private company, led by CEO David MacLennan; and WH Group, led by chairman Wan Long, which owns America’s largest pork producer, Smithfield Foods (U.S. chief: Larry Pope). Watch specifically for answers to three key questions:

Will they respond tactically or strategically? It’s unclear for now whether the WHO report will even affect U.S. consumption of processed meat. The very idea of Americans giving up bacon and hot dogs may turn out to be preposterous, no matter what some U.N. agency says. Even if consumption dips, the producers may just cut prices and hope the whole affair blows over. And who knows – maybe that will happen. But longer term, the tactical response will almost certainly be insufficient.

Will they acknowledge risks? The meat producers knew the WHO announcement was coming and were ready with a response through their trade association. “Dramatic and alarmist overreach,” they called the report, stating that plenty of research shows no risks from processed meat and pointing out flaws in research that says otherwise. But the WHO panel included hundreds of researchers from around the world who agreed on a firm conclusion. If the industry leaders continue to deny any risk, and further research reinforces the WHO report, they may lose all credibility. That could hamper their ability to stave off potential new government regulation.

Will anyone break ranks? If consumers take the report seriously and cut consumption significantly, pressure will grow on individual producers to break ranks with the industry, acknowledge risks, and promote “healthier” less-processed or unprocessed versions of today’s products (if they can). No producer would want to be the last one to do that.

The likeliest outcome is that this challenge will play out over years, much as the challenge to cigarette producers did. The processed meat business is different in dozens of ways, of course. But the risk is that, if not led wisely, it too could become a declining industry and a social pariah.

 

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What We’re Reading Today

U.S. warship approaches Chinese-claimed island

China has warned and will continue to track a U.S. warship that came within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands. The South China Sea islands are man-made and the U.S. has not recognized them as China’s property. The U.S. claims it’s abiding by international law, but the move could have been a response to a Chinese ship’s coming within 12 miles of the Alaskan coast while President Barack Obama visited the state. CNN

Congressional leaders, White House agree on budget

The tentative $80-billion  deal would fund the government through September 2017 while also raising the debt limit for two years. In one of John Boehner‘s last acts as Speaker of the House, it will ensure that threats of a government shutdown aren’t used as routine bargaining chips. Raising the debt limit will upset some House conservatives but could improve Paul Ryan‘s ability to lead if he succeeds Boehner as expected.  NBC News

Valeant names special panel

It will investigate whether the company properly reported financial transactions with its pharmacy, Philidor RX Services. The move is a response by CEO J. Michael Pearson to allegations by Citron Research’s Andrew Left that Valeant created “phantom accounts” to boost revenue. Valeant has denied the accusations, but the dispute has raised questions about the drugmaker’s overall strategy. USA Today

Alibaba sales jump 32%

The third quarter results from Jack Ma‘s company reflect booming mobile spending, up 60% from last year. They’re another indication that maybe China’s economic struggles of the past few months have eased. Still, Alibaba’s stock is down over 25% for the year.  Fortune

Building a Better Leader

When should you sell a company?

Shark Tank’s Robert Herjavec says do it if the money will change your life.  Inc.

REI to close on Black Friday

CEO Jerry Stritzke will pay employees for the day and give them Thanksgiving off as well. Fortune

The Norwegian Army may have solved sexism

Men assigned to mix-gender rooms during training showed no signs of sexism in picking women leaders after eight weeks.  Quartz

Worthy Research

Theranos to publish data defending its tech

CEO Elizabeth Holmes said it would be easier to publish the data 0n the efficacy of her company’s blood testing equipment, which has come under attack in the past month, than to defend against the attacks. The company, with a $9-billion valuation, will add its outside legal counsel, David Boies, to the board of directors. NYT

Walmart to test drones for delivery

To keep up with Amazon, Doug McMillon‘s company has filed papers with U.S. regulators to test drones for delivery and curbside pickup. It will also use drones to monitor shipping facilities by taking inventory of trucks. Reuters

JP Morgan Chase to launch an Apple Pay competitor

It has already signed a deal with the Merchant Customer Exchange, a group of companies that includes Walmart and Best Buy. It’s a big step for CEO Jamie Dimon‘s newest offering, as the group of companies account for $1 trillion in sales, while competitors like Apple Pay struggle to sign new retailers. CNBC

Up or Out

American Egg Board CEO Joanne Ivy has stepped down following the release of emails that indicated she conspired to keep Hampton Creek’s eggless mayonnaise off of Whole Foods’ shelves. Manufacturing.net

Investor Vinod Khosla has resigned as a director of Square before it goes public. TechCrunch

Fortune Reads and Videos

Kohls to open smaller stores…

…as its three-year turnaround plan sputters in year one. Fortune

Dreamworks CEO: Tesla saved my life

Jeffrey Katzenberg broke an arm and wrist in a car crash, but thanks Elon Musk for still being alive. Fortune

The red meat industry’s decline

With the World Health Organization’s announcement classifying red meat as a “probable” cause of cancer, it could get worse.  Fortune

31% of companies have no CEO succession plan 

The percentage is even higher for companies in private equity portfolios.  Fortune

Today’s Quote

“You better figure it out, because there’s an Uber out there that’s already figured it out…The bottom line is that the c-suite is staying up at night.” – Glen Finch, IBM’s global head of big data and analytics, speaking at the IBM Conference, discussing the threat of encroachment from small, nimble startups.  Fortune

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@ryanderous
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