• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

It’s time to weather-adjust the jobs report

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 6, 2014, 7:07 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — On Friday, the government will report how many people were employed (and unemployed) in January. Once again, the number could be a messy one. The reason: the weather.

December’s report said companies added only 74,000 positions, which was much lower than what was expected. But many economists said that was due to weather, and to ignore it. The weather in January wasn’t much better, certainly colder that average. Auto dealers and real estate agents have complained that frigid temperatures slowed activity. And construction certainly slackened more than normal. Still, the week, or two weeks, depending on which of the government’s two jobs surveys you are talking about, in which the Labor Department counted the number of workers, had relatively little snow.

Even so, the fact that some companies put off hiring in December because of the weather may artificially boost January’s job growth. So, one way or another, it’s hard to say the number won’t be affected somehow. A number of Wall Street’s top economists have noted how weather will or will not play into January’s tally. Clearly, it’s a guess, on top of all the other guesses forecasts they make to come to their predicted number.

MORE: Why stronger GDP growth isn’t creating more jobs

January will mark the third month in a row that weather has clouded the jobs report. November was warmer than usual, potentially leading to more hires than normal, which also could have contributed to December’s drop.

But wait, this is all kind of silly. First of all, the significance of the weather effect may be overstated. The jobs number that everyone quotes each month comes from the survey of employers. In that survey, all you have to do is work one day of the pay period in question in order to get counted as employed. And, according to the BLS, only about 22% of the workers in its survey are paid weekly. So weather would have to stop them from getting to work for two full weeks for it to really have an effect on the number. That’s like a Hurricane Katrina or Sandy event, not a snow storm or a cold front. What’s more, as Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics has pointed out, about 20,000 fewer accountants were employed in December than the month before. It’s hard to blame that on the weather.

Change in the monthly employment number

But let’s ignore all of that, because everyone else seems to, and assume that weather affects the numbers. If that’s the case, I have a proposal: Why doesn’t the government adjust the jobs number based on the weather?

MORE: Did the Fed screw up?

The government already seasonally adjusts the jobs numbers. But those adjustments are really about seasonal industry trends and not necessarily weather. So the BLS adjusts for more retail and fewer construction jobs in November and December. And those adjustments are all put into place in advance of the actual month, before we know what the weather will bring. And they are heavily based on hiring patterns from the past few years. So get one year of especially wacky weather, which we’re experiencing more and more often, and all the adjustments get thrown off.

What’s more, the government is already collecting some data on how the weather affects employment, so why not use it? Here’s how I would do it: Each month, the government asks individuals if they have a job but weren’t able to get to work because of the weather. (Those people are counted as unemployed.) Last month, 273,000 people responded yes to that question. That was higher than usual. The five-year December average is 181,000. So the number of additional people who weren’t able to get to work because of last month’s unusual weather came to 92,000.

The problem is that each month the government conducts two employment surveys. The weather question comes from the survey that goes out to individuals. The widely quoted number of jobs added each month, which was 74,000 in December, comes from the payroll survey. Historically, the payroll survey number is, on average, about 7% lower than the household survey number. Factor that in, and the weather-adjusted payroll number should include an additional 87,000 workers in December. (Zandi says his models point to 50,000, so we are in the same ballpark.) Based on this line of thinking, the December jobs number should be 161,000.

MORE: What the drop in the market means for stocks (and the economy)

But we’re not done yet. You can’t figure out how many jobs were added in December without knowing how many weather-adjusted jobs we had in November. And remember, the weather in November was quite lovely. And that, according to my math, means that 78,000 more people landed jobs than should have. So you have to take those jobs out. Bottom line: On a weather adjusted basis, the economy added 239,000 jobs in December.

Is that the right number for job growth in December? GDP rose 3.2% in the fourth quarter. So 239,000 feels more in line with that fact than 74,000. But who knows? What’s clear is that not adjusting for the weather makes an already messy number even messier. One seasoned Wall Street economist said he and his colleagues should take November to March off. The winter jobs numbers have basically become useless, so taking a vacation might offer one solution. But then we would also have to adjust for all those out-of-work economists. And no one wants to do that.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
MPWMost Powerful Women
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
By Emma HinchliffeJuly 4, 2026
48 minutes ago
Elon Musk with a black DOGE hat
SuccessWealth
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ every day Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
49 minutes ago
Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs today. One specific American is predicted to eat 70 of them
North AmericaFood and drink
Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs today. One specific American is predicted to eat 70 of them
By Catherina GioinoJuly 4, 2026
49 minutes ago
Nike’s self-inflicted wounds are risking CEO Elliott Hill’s nascent comeback
RetailFortune 500
Nike’s self-inflicted wounds are risking CEO Elliott Hill’s nascent comeback
By Phil WahbaJuly 4, 2026
49 minutes ago
‘Devin-kun’: Japan embraces agents as legacy code and a shrinking workforce create a perfect market for an AI software engineer 
AsiaAI agents
‘Devin-kun’: Japan embraces agents as legacy code and a shrinking workforce create a perfect market for an AI software engineer 
By Nicholas GordonJuly 3, 2026
11 hours ago
‘It’s just his AI and my AI going back and forth’: The workplace phenomenon that’s undermining human relationships
Future of WorkWorkforce
‘It’s just his AI and my AI going back and forth’: The workplace phenomenon that’s undermining human relationships
By Jacqueline MunisJuly 3, 2026
17 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
AI
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
Economy
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
By Jim EdwardsJuly 3, 2026
20 hours ago
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
Success
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.