• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

Why the commercial real estate crash never came

By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 23, 2013, 3:44 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — Hilton Worldwide recently announced plans to return to the public market, after The Blackstone Group (BX) took the hotel giant private in 2007.

The private equity firm is eager to recoup some of the $26 billion it paid for the chain just before the credit crunch. Whether Blackstone will be successful remains to be seen, but the initial public offering comes as the hotel industry, and more broadly, the commercial real estate market, turns around.

Less than four years ago, lawmakers and executives warned that the market for hotels, malls, apartments, and office buildings would be the next to collapse, after countless homeowners lost their homes to foreclosures. While prices across commercial real estate declined almost 40%, it never quite crashed like the housing market. Yes there were foreclosures and defaults, but not to the scale of housing.

There are a few reasons why the crash never came, which also help explain how commercial real estate has recovered much faster than the market for homes. Unlike residential, the commercial market didn’t bubble up nearly as much as housing; it was not nearly as overbuilt, either.

MORE: The barbarians are still at the gate

This had a lot to do with timing, says Casey Mulligan, economics professor at the University of Chicago. The boom in home construction took workers, materials, and land away from the commercial sector. It was only after 2005, when the housing market bubble burst, that more of these resources freed up and construction projects started picking up — but that was short-lived since the financial crisis shortly followed.

While there were defaults, the commercial market didn’t see nearly as many foreclosures as the housing market. Joblessness and plummeting home prices led many to miss mortgage payments, which led to the wave of defaults. Commercial properties saw similar price declines, but unlike residential properties, owners enjoyed continuous flow of income by way of rents from tenants. This gave owners struggling with the credit crunch considerable relief.

“There were defaults in the commercial space, but it didn’t hit the heights seen in the single-family market,” says Susan Wachter, real estate and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. Rather than a wave of defaults, the real estate crash triggered a wave of workouts whereby banks renegotiated the terms of loans, sold to new owners or took the properties over. Private equity firms also swooped in and bought up distressed properties.

“Any solution did not trigger excess supply in the market,” Wachter adds. “It was almost a nonevent in the commercial space.”

MORE: More Americans pay mortgage first again, then credit cards

On average, prices regained all the ground that was lost during the downturn, according to the monthly index by Green Street Advisors that tracks commercial real estate prices. While office industrial buildings have a ways to go, prices for apartments, high-end malls, and strip centers are well above their prior peak.

Hotels, in particular, have recovered in big ways as stocks soar and the economy improves. And Hilton’s move to go public is the latest example. With hotel stocks close to a five-year high and revenue and profits growing industry-wide, investors are taking advantage of the stock rally to sell assets.

Hyatt Hotels (H), the chain controlled by Chicago’s Pritzker family, raised $1.09 billion in an IPO in 2009; it rose 12% on its first day of trading. Since the IPO, shares have gained 77%.

Caesars Entertainment (CZR), the casino chain that also operates hotels, sold shares to the public last year, after private-equity owners Apollo Global Management LLC and TPG Capital took the company private about four years ago. Since the IPO, shares have risen 81%.

The crash in commercial real estate may or may not have happened, but if it did, it probably wasn’t as bad as many thought.

About the Author
By Nin-Hai Tseng
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

U.S. military launches 10th straight night of airstrikes on Iran as Houthi allies threaten Red Sea, but glimmers of hope appear on diplomatic front
EnergyIran
U.S. military launches 10th straight night of airstrikes on Iran as Houthi allies threaten Red Sea, but glimmers of hope appear on diplomatic front
By Jon Gambrell and The Associated PressJuly 20, 2026
8 hours ago
Trump to impose 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, invoking the ‘nuclear option’ that could unleash a new wave of economic chaos and inflation
EconomyTariffs
Trump to impose 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, invoking the ‘nuclear option’ that could unleash a new wave of economic chaos and inflation
By Josh Boak and The Associated PressJuly 20, 2026
9 hours ago
Three women chop their way into the record books at Lumberjack World Championships
North AmericaWisconsin
Three women chop their way into the record books at Lumberjack World Championships
By The Associated Press and Ellen SchmidtJuly 20, 2026
10 hours ago
President Donald Trump walks down the steps from Air Force One.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump admin attempted to uncover phone records of NYT journalists and sources related to coverage of Qatari-gifted Air Force One
By The Associated Press, Eric Tucker and Jocelyn NoveckJuly 20, 2026
10 hours ago
Alaskan pilot Ken Jouppi sits in an aircraft hanger in front of a plane.
LawSupreme Court
A passenger brought a 6-pack of beer on an Alaskan pilot’s plane. He now has to defend his plane’s seizure in front of the Supreme Court
By The Associated Press and Michael KunzelmanJuly 20, 2026
11 hours ago
LaLiga president says tech is already making the fan experience better, and it could solve football’s money problem too
AISports
LaLiga president says tech is already making the fan experience better, and it could solve football’s money problem too
By Catherina GioinoJuly 20, 2026
11 hours ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
13 hours ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
18 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
2 days ago
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
Future of Work
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
By Sarah GlodekJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 20, 2026
21 hours ago
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
Retail
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.