• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers

3

Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers

3

Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50

The bad news about LinkedIn’s good fortune

By
Kevin Kelleher
Kevin Kelleher
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Kevin Kelleher
Kevin Kelleher
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 12, 2013, 5:00 AM ET

By Kevin Kelleher, contributor

LinkedIn CEO Jeff Weiner

FORTUNE — Everything seems to be going right for LinkedIn (LNKD) these days. Except for maybe one thing: Everyone and their dog knows that everything is going right for LinkedIn.

That’s not necessarily a problem for LinkedIn’s business. In fact, it could help. As the company broadens into international markets, as it pushes toward new goals like being a clearinghouse for realtime business news, and as it partners with companies and developers on its LinkedIn Platform, positive-word-of mouth can only help these efforts gain traction.

Few things offer better word of mouth than a rocketing stock price. And that may present LinkedIn a problem. During the past few years, investors were skeptical about web companies that listed on public markets. Some, like Groupon (GRPN), went public with fast growth but big losses. Others, like Zynga (ZNGA), listed with a business model that soon ran into headwinds. LinkedIn was always the exception disproving the rule, the star pupil in a less-than-impressive class.

In May 2011, LinkedIn planned to go public at $32 a share before the offering price to $45 a share. Then In 26 months on the market, the price of those shares have risen more than five times over, rising to a record high of $237.96 a share earlier this week. By contrast, Groupon is 47% below its offering price, and Zynga is 71% below.

MORE: Why a BlackBerry buyout is unlikely

Even after Facebook’s (FB) problematic IPO last summer dampened interest further in web IPOs, LinkedIn thrived. The company’s focus on the professional market made it seem more like an enterprise play rather than a consumer social network trying to sell mostly ads.

Now that Facebook’s strong earnings report has reignited its own stock rally, LinkedIn’s continues to rise. Investors who harbored their social-media money in LinkedIn during the dog days of Facebook’s first year as a public company aren’t selling now that Facebook is trading above its own offering price of $38 a share. LinkedIn is up 18% in the past two weeks, propelled in good part by its own strong growth last quarter.

But unlike Facebook, LinkedIn’s report was seen as a mixed bag. Yes, revenue grew 59% on year, but the company forecast revenue in the current quarter to be around $370 million, below the $384 million analysts had been modeling.

Much of this reaction has to do with the view that Wall Street has taken of LinkedIn. The company delivered quarter after quarter of robust revenue growth and operating profits at a time when many wondered how social media sites could be monetized. LinkedIn relied heavily on its hiring solutions, a service built upon the business network at its core. Each quarter, the company guided expectations low, then hopped easily over the bar once it came time to announce results.

So the weak revenue guidance was seen as one more attempt to lowball Wall Street’s expectations rather than a warning. After all, LinkedIn was transitioning to new ad-revenue models like Sponsored Updates, ads inserted into the LinkedIn feed that some advertisers said generated five times as many leads as banner ads and other paid channels.

MORE: Back to school, hell yes! Study teaching, hell no!

There are, however, a couple of risks involved with the game of guiding investor expectations low. One is that after a couple of years of this people begin to expect it of you. As we saw in the post-earnings rally of LinkedIn shares, the market shrugged off disappointing guidance for this very reason. The trick begins to lose its impact. Great things are expected of you each quarter, whether you downplay them or not.

Once, Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) were very good at this game. Ebay (EBAY), in its glory days, was too. More recently, Apple (AAPL) played it during the years when the iPhone and iPad were delivering growth that exceeded almost everyone’s expectations. Then, in all of those companies, the growth began to cool. Not disappear or even slow significantly, but simply to not meet the heightened expectations that the low-guidance game had perversely created in the market.

New growth areas are what investors are essentially betting on when they bid LinkedIn shares higher. That’s what makes them especially crucial to the future of LinkedIn’s stock. LinkedIn called Sponsored Updates “a more sustainable and scalable content marketing model.” The company is trying to supplement a business model dependent on job searches to also become a site where people share news and information of interest to their work lives. LinkedIn’s ad-driven marketing solutions unit made up 24% of revenue last quarter, down from 33% two years earlier.

Even with more ads in LinkedIn feeds, with LinkedIn pushing into overseas markets and with it opening up its platform to well-known writers, it’s hard to justify the optimism bulls have about the company’s growth prospects. The stock is trading at 17 times its estimated revenue and 150 times its earnings for 2013. It’s trading at 106 times earnings. Which means that even if Linked stayed flat for a year and a half, it would still be priced at 100 times its current profit.

It’s a paradox of success: Sometimes companies do so well their expectations can become hard to meet. It may be that’s starting to be the case with LinkedIn. Good word about the company has priced the stock for perfection. As history has shown, priced to perfection often means, in time, priced to disappoint.

About the Author
By Kevin Kelleher
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

The more generous U.S. ceasefire terms are, the more suspicious Iran becomes they’re a ruse for another attack, expert says
PoliticsIran
The more generous U.S. ceasefire terms are, the more suspicious Iran becomes they’re a ruse for another attack, expert says
By Jason MaMay 24, 2026
2 hours ago
f
Energyfraud
Nonprofit fraud isn’t surging. Enforcement is
By Sarah Webber and The ConversationMay 24, 2026
4 hours ago
r
HealthHealth
The quiet $8 billion crisis: long COVID costs keep rising as Washington looks away
By Bruce Y. Lee, Hannah Dimmick and The ConversationMay 24, 2026
4 hours ago
w
Personal FinanceWhite House
From Hobbes to the 14th amendment: the ancient and modern cases against Trump’s $1.8 billion fund
By Austin Sarat and The ConversationMay 24, 2026
4 hours ago
mental
Healthmental health
500,000 people were locked in state psychiatric hospitals. Their descendants can’t find out why
By Mike Stobbe, Nick Lichtenberg and The Associated PressMay 24, 2026
4 hours ago
mark
Travel & LeisureAirline industry
The travel industry has been taking body blows. Here comes an airport ‘sanctuary city’ crackdown
By Josh Funk, Rio Yamat and The Associated PressMay 24, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
3 days ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
Success
Apple’s Steve Wozniak says he cofounded the tech giant after 5 rejections from HP—not to ‘make money.’ For years, his paycheck was just $50
By Preston ForeMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
AI
Microsoft reports are exposing AI's real cost problem: Using the tech is more expensive than paying human employees
By Jake AngeloMay 22, 2026
2 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
5 days ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
7 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.